2018 Leaf vs Model 3

[SlicedBr3ad]

I think majority of the Tesla's sales are in the US so they will hit that number faster than Nissan which sells globally and has higher overall sales.

Good point. Also, who made more money on electric cars? I doubt it's Nissan. The major thing that Tesla is lacking is production capacity. Unfortunately or fortunately, that's the only thing that matters right now.

 

[EVNow]

Are you seriously telling me I need to choose among the Nissan dealerships the ones that know how to sell this product? You are just making my point.

Yes, you need to do some homework. The sales people I've talked to at Tesla stores seem to know less than I do about Model S. What's your point ?

I also explained I bought the lower trim and I explained why I think it was bad for Nissan not including streaming.

I think it is bad that Tesla is not including AP in the base trim.

 

[internalaudit]

Good point. Also, who made more money on electric cars? I doubt it's Nissan. The major thing that Tesla is lacking is production capacity. Unfortunately or fortunately, that's the only thing that matters right now.

Cash flow from operations does not like to lie.

 

[McRat]

From 2006 to 2016 from the Wikipedia worldwide sales numbers

Corolla 5.1M to Camry 4.6M to Prius 3.5M

but the Peak sales per year is

Corolla 575K (2008)
Prius 509K (2010)
Camry 473K (2007)

and focusing on 2010 gives us

Prius 509K
Corolla 397K
Camry 365K

So at it's peak the Prius did outsell the Camry and Corolla.

Use Good Car Bad Car dot net. This is the most accurate. Yes, US buyers are different. But it's the $$$ market.

Best year for Prius in the USA = 236k in 2012 for all versions and variants. It has dropped to 1/2 of that now.
In 2012, 291k units (peak 387k) Corolla. 405k for Camry (peak 473k).

So in the US, even at peak Prius sales, they never approached the other 2 cars on the same lot that day.

Today? 248k YTD US Camry, 232k YTD Corolla, 74k YTD Prius.

 

[SageBrush]

Leaf Gen 2 will definitely give M3 some competition. There will be other cars coming soon too to do the same. I think Tesla and the investors know that already. Leaf is less than 20k (after incentives). 150 mile range (perfect for daily commuter, soccer moms), autopilot, fun to drive. I think it checks off many boxes. Not bad if you lease is for less than $300/month and leave your luxury car in the garage for the weekend.

$300 a month to leave my other car in the garage ?! No thanks. I'll take a fraction of the money I didn't spend on the luxury car and buy a Model 3.

I'll also mention that your POV is mild weather centric. I live in a 4 season climate where EV range in the winter is ~ 70% of summer. And I have a 45 mile commute each way to work without destination charging. So imagine if I bought a 150 mile range LEAF2 with the Amazing (tm) disappearing battery capacity. In 3 years or so I could well have only 80% of new range

Let's add that up: winter, 3 years of degradation:
150*0.8*0.7 = 84 miles of range in the winter. That is, presuming I am willing to drive the battery to zero each trip.
$30k for a car that will not consistently get me to work at the ripe age of ~ 3 years old.

 

[Jayc]

The idea that the Leaf is not a Model 3 competitor has been entirely disproven in this thread alone. The fact that on a TESLA fan forum that the discussion isn't unanimous pretty much ends all debate right there. The Leaf IS a Model 3 competitor and a very good one at it.



This is THE perfect example. Nobody in their right mind would consider the Corolla as premium a car as the BMW 3 series. But the fact remains this EXACT example was one I was debating for my first new car out of college. The Corolla was going to give me a very established reliable BASIC transportation that I could afford to add a few toys to, while paying a bit more for the base model BMW 3 would give me a better ride and the premium image. But at the end of the day, while I was comparing the pros and cons of both, I went with the Corolla. Cost definitely played a factor, so did BMW's reliability at the time. There were other considerations as well. Each person will have their own.

And today I am sure cost and reliability will still be factors when MANY people choose the Leaf over the Model 3 they were considering. People who may have never heard of this forum. To think that just because one car costs more than another doesn't mean it's not a competitor is naive, and to think Tesla is the ONLY option for a good EV borders on crazy.

To wrap this up, the Leaf looks to be a great car, even as it clearly has warts. So does the Bolt. And the Kia. And the BMW i3. And yes, even the Model 3 has its share of warts. But since we're all on this forum, it's pretty clear that among many worthy competitors, we've settled on the Model 3 for ourselves. But for those people who don't choose a Tesla, I'm thrilled they are going with a competing EV over an ICE. You all should be as well.

Agree fully. Plus never thought I'd have to put it this way but I really hope Tesla gets a real good beating in Europe and elsewhere with Gen 2 Leaf - not everyone wants or cares about performance or aesthetics as we do so the 2018 Leaf is going to be a great alternative to the Model 3.

There is a lesson to be learnt for Tesla that the international market is not just an afterthought. True Tesla is resource limited but it is simply not acceptable that the 3rd new Tesla model to come out is still taking almost 2 years from start of production to reach here.

 

[zmarty]

What's your point ?

The point was that most Nissan dealerships don't want or are not capable of selling Leaf cars. The sales people I talked to could not answer my questions about the car. And they were easy questions. Also, dealerships in general are a pain to deal with. Compare that to the Tesla sales experience.

 

[SageBrush]

I think majority of the Tesla's sales are in the US

~ 50% IIRC

 

[C141medic]

I currently drive a diesel, so really although I'd like the long range, my strongest desire is just to get into an EV for commuting to work asap, though at 55 miles each way I haven't had much choice as sadly I cannot afford a model S.

I can tell you as a former Leaf owner, that unless you have charging available at work you will not have enough range for the round trip commute of 110 miles during the winter. Figure on at least 30% range reduction which would equate to approximately 105 miles of usable range (150-45).

 

[EpiKAC]

Well, here's a new reason for considering the Leaf if you live in North Carolina. Too bad they aren't doing this for the Model 3.

$10,000 rebate, plus the $7500 tax credit...

Nissan $10,000 Rebate for North Carolina Residents - Plug-in NC

 

[SageBrush]

Too bad they aren't doing this for the Model 3.

Or the LEAF2, for that matter.

 

[chronopc]

I plan to buy a 2018 Leaf, not because I think it is the best EV out there, but because it fits my needs better than an i3, e-Golf and Zoe, and as a UK resident, sadly we do not get the Bolt and the model 3 is realistically 2 years away from our shores.

I'm surprised the Bolt isn't available in the UK yet. There's plenty of Bolt inventory in the US.

 

[WhiskySTL]

After extensive research, I have discovered the simplest reason why one shouldn't even consider (for now) any non-Tesla EV:

View attachment 246282

I am continually struck by the emphasis people place on the Supercharger network, assuming it's a huge factor for everyone. It is almost irrelevant to me. I will charge at home and at work. That's it. I will not use my Model 3 for most road trips - because it doesn't have enough cargo space. I'm sure there are plenty of buyers like me.

Imagine if we did not have lot of gas stations and auto makers tried to sell an ICE car with say only 150 miles to a tank with the argument "there aren't a lot of places to refuel and you only have a gas range of 150 miles, but hey, the car isn't meant for long trips anyway so it does not matter". So why is it an ok argument for EVs?

Because I don't have a gas pump at my house.

 

[McRat]

I'm surprised the Bolt isn't available in the UK yet. There's plenty of Bolt inventory in the US.

The UK is RHD, Opel is now owned by Peugeot, the only GM cars available in Europe are Camaro/Corvette/Cadillac which are sold at limited Cadillac dealers at massive markups.

If a Bolt was sold in the UK, it would probably be $75,000 US.

 

[chronopc]

I am continually struck by the emphasis people place on the Supercharger network, assuming it's a huge factor for everyone. It is almost irrelevant to me. I will charge at home and at work. That's it. I will not use my Model 3 for most road trips - because it doesn't have enough cargo space. I'm sure there are plenty of buyers like me.


Because I don't have a gas pump at my house.

Nothing is a huge factor for everyone. But I think you might be in the minority when it comes to not using the Model 3 for road trips. One of the main reason why I want to get the Model 3 is so I can make more frequent trips from San Francisco to Los Angeles to visit my parents. The range, AP, and supercharger network will all be extremely important for me.

 

[internalaudit]

Nothing is a huge factor for everyone. But I think you might be in the minority when it comes to not using the Model 3 for road trips. One of the main reason why I want to get the Model 3 is so I can make more frequent trips from San Francisco to Los Angeles to visit my parents. The range, AP, and supercharger network will all be extremely important for me.

In WA, someone posted 11 cents per kWh, how much is it where you plan on charging? You will only charge enough plus maybe 30% to get back home or to your folks' place?

 

[chronopc]

In WA, someone posted 11 cents per kWh, how much is it where you plan on charging? You will only charge enough plus maybe 30% to get back home or to your folks' place?

I think the SC rate in CA is 20 cents per kWh. I think off peak rate at my house is 12 cents per kWh.

I am going to be getting the LR so my plan is to leave the house with 90%, charge once at a SC which will get me to my parent's. Not sure what I will do on the return trip. I can either get a dryer adapter and charge at my parents or us the SC while I'm in Los Angeles. Considering it charges at 170 miles per half hour, I'm leaning towards using the SC for all my charging needs when I'm away from home.

 

[WhiskySTL]

Nothing is a huge factor for everyone. But I think you might be in the minority when it comes to not using the Model 3 for road trips. One of the main reason why I want to get the Model 3 is so I can make more frequent trips from San Francisco to Los Angeles to visit my parents. The range, AP, and supercharger network will all be extremely important for me.

Maybe I am. I posted a poll to find out.

 

[Brando]

To those here buying leaf in US.
Real question, would you buy leaf 2 without cash incentives? Asking because I'd buy m3 even without incentives.
I'm hearing some talk how Nissan sells more electric yet Tesla is set to run out of incentives first?!

World wide Leaf the sales leader. Incentives (assume you mean US $7,500 tax credit) is limited to first 200,000 cars SOLD in the US for each manufacturer.

side note: tax credits started in 2005 and current $7500 tax credit in 2008 (Model S introduced 2012)
(perhaps some credits in the 90s, not sure)

Each independent automaker’s eligible plug-in vehicles receive a federal credit (up to $7,500) federal credit – until the 200,000th plug-in is registered inside the US, when a countdown for phaseout of the credit begins.

At the time of the 200,000th sales, and so as not to disrupt/confuse those buying the EVs, that full $7,500 credit continues through the end of the current quarter and to the completion of the next quarter. After this period ends the “phase-out” begins, meaning the credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.

During any part of the phase-out process (between sale #200,000 and the calendar expiry date), the OEM is free to BUILD AND SELL AS MANY EVS as they can/want, receiving the applicable incentive amount.

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

 

[mmd]

From 2006 to 2016 from the Wikipedia worldwide sales numbers

Corolla 5.1M to Camry 4.6M to Prius 3.5M

but the Peak sales year for each is

Corolla 575K (2008)
Prius 509K (2010)
Camry 473K (2007)

and focusing on 2010 gives us

Prius 509K
Corolla 397K
Camry 365K

So at it's peak the Prius did outsell the Camry and Corolla.

If you include the whole Prius family (Prius V, C etc.), total sales were over 6.1 million by Jan 2017. That's equivalent to eliminating pollution from > 3 mil vehicles, as its mpg is ~2 times that of a same size non-hybrid. Had the Chinese and California's government stopped from trying to kill hybrids, it would have sold more and done more good to the environment by now. But alas, we are always caught up in some political skulduggery.

Toyota Prius - Wikipedia

The Prius family totaled global cumulative sales of 6.1 million units in January 2017, representing 61% of the 10 million hybrids sold worldwide by Toyota since 1997.[11]

For those trying to anti-sell Leaf because of its 150 miles range, consider how many people commute < 50 miles one way in US. It's over 97%! With some workplace charging, a 150 mile Leaf works great for > 99% commuters. In other countries, this will look even better for Leaf. With its lower affordable price, this is truly transitioning the masses to EV driving That was the ultimate goal in Tesla's master plan, remember? Build a more affordable EV? So, give a big round of applause for Nissan leaf 2.0!

Commuter Driving Statistics