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2021 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
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Good to know, thanks.
Ill post any info I get out of Tesla/Lex in the next few weeks where it may help you narrow down the ships.
Tiger
Active Member
Does it look like the first S/X shipment is going to be happening this year? Tesla Model X refresh spotted anew in Fremont Factory
FlyingTimbo
Member
I'm eagerly awaiting a VIN, got the RN straight away. Ordered 14th Sept but got told late Nov delivery. I guess it's en route so I'll be watching closely shipping movements.
Sold my year old Model 3 for more than I paid a year ago. Now I'm having to drive my wife's diesel which feels pretty agricultural.
Sold my year old Model 3 for more than I paid a year ago. Now I'm having to drive my wife's diesel which feels pretty agricultural.
Getting into the spirit of Tesla Shipment stalking, I've been looking at some of the vessels mentioned in this thread and not many look like they are in the vicinity or headed to the South/East China Sea area, but there are a few that are going to Singapore, which maybe a waypoint destination on the way to Shanghai.
Two candidates fitting that route are Glovis Companion and Triton Ace. The former seems to have been static on the map off the coast of Singapore since 29 Sept (its last update) and did look like it was headed East under power...
Lake Geneva also looked like it might have been on the Singapore lay-over route, but it seems to be headed to South Korea now...
Two candidates fitting that route are Glovis Companion and Triton Ace. The former seems to have been static on the map off the coast of Singapore since 29 Sept (its last update) and did look like it was headed East under power...
Lake Geneva also looked like it might have been on the Singapore lay-over route, but it seems to be headed to South Korea now...
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There are about 650 suitable vessels for Tesla to charter.
At the moment only Helios Ray fits my criteria.
I expect UK to receive about 4 or maybe 5 shipments in Q4. On that basis 2 or 3 should arrive in November.
Quite how many ships will head to Zeebrugge/Kotor very much depends on whether GF Berlin starts producing Model Y or not.
My guess is that we will see a total of around 12 / 13 ships in Q4
S.Lav
Member
So please teach me here - is it up to the captain of those vehicle vessels to decide if the transponder should be on? It is now 5 days since last known position for HELIOS RAY. Or is it those free services that hold back live data?
With the container vessels I follow there is usually only 1-4 min lag if at all....
Not an expert, but from my understanding the location is only updated if the vessel is within range of land-based receiving stations, or if the vessel has satellite-AIS.
The transponder in this case is on.
You can't see the latest positions because the ship is out of range of terrestrial receivers. I have a satellite service and so I can see where she was 2 minutes ago - I just checked.
Now HELIOS RAY has had a pretty horrid year because she was subject to an attack when she was in the Gulf earlier this year. The finger of suspicion was firmly directed at Iran. Since then. like many of other ships she has 'gone dark' between the Red Sea and west coast of India ie switched off her AIS transponder. Personally I think it is pretty pointless especially if the attackers are receiving state backed intelligence and using mines placed onboard whilst in port. I think a better idea is to use the AIS to advertise the fact you have armed guards onboard.
Another method might be to reduce the effective range of the AIS - it was designed to be short range in any case. This means the AIS can provide the safety service it was designed for, to supply navigational and identity information to nearby shipping but not enough to be picked up by satellite or 95% of the land based receivers.
It's probably worth mentioning, but the AIS receiving satellites are in low earth orbit and are receiving the same VHF signal that everyone else receives ie the signal is not deliberately transmitted via satellite - does that make sense?
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S.Lav
Member
I makes a lot of sense - and thank you for the interesting story of the recent past of Helios Ray - indeed a lot of external factors to take into account in this business nowadays.....
No, but in the current Tesla business model, export production is prioritised to the first part of the quarter so that they can be delivered by the end of the quarter. The concept of selling everything you made in a quarter in that same quarter has served Tesla very well and the company's financial standing at the end of 2021 is very different from 2018 or earlier. The end of quarter push is pretty well ingrained in American companies - I recall working for one in the 80's and it was de rigeur even then. (I always thought it was slightly counterproductive in that you always kept something back so that you could be seen to be contributing to the 'team push' at the end of the quarter and I wasn't alone especially when bonuses were the incentive) Anyway, Tesla's end of quarter pushes take the concept to the extreme and on a scale that probably increases the costs of sale thereby adversely affecting the bottom line. It can also be tough on employees who come to dread the end of a quarter. As we approach the end of 2021 Tesla is now cash rich and can afford to have several thousand cars on board ships at quarter end and so it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla will now aim to smooth out deliveries over the quarter. So this quarter I shall be watching for ships departing Shanghai in December with deliveries taking place in 2022. This will also provide a nice kick start to the 2022 figures - what's not to like?
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Those of you who have started to monitor ship movements a little more closely than they imagined before buying a Tesla, will have possibly noticed that GRAND PACE is showing as inbound to San Francisco. I know she isn't showing on the San Francisco port schedule but I now have it on good authority that she is inbound to Pier 80. As always I have not been told her destination (that info is subject to an NDA). She is due to dock on Tuesday.
Nice to see activity at Pier 80 again!
Update: I' m just wondering whether GRAND PACE could possibly be a replacement for RCC TIANJIN that is at least 5 days behind schedule at the moment. It doesn't help that she hasn't updated her AIS but she is definitely on her way to the US west coast - she is due into Hueneme on 8 Oct but she won't make that. I believe she is heading to San Diego and should arrive on 10th. I'll ask around...
Nice to see activity at Pier 80 again!
Update: I' m just wondering whether GRAND PACE could possibly be a replacement for RCC TIANJIN that is at least 5 days behind schedule at the moment. It doesn't help that she hasn't updated her AIS but she is definitely on her way to the US west coast - she is due into Hueneme on 8 Oct but she won't make that. I believe she is heading to San Diego and should arrive on 10th. I'll ask around...
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TALIA has departed Shanghai enroute to Southampton & Zeebrugge via a refuel stop in Singapore.
I don't believe she has any Teslas onboard for the simple reason that it is too early in the quarter.
(This is normally a cue for a flurry of VIN assignments which would indicate that I'm wrong, again!)
The argument for her carrying some Teslas is that she will stop at the Western Docks in Southampton (30/31 Oct) and the ICO quay in Zeebrugge on 1 & 2 Nov.
We shall see.....
I don't believe she has any Teslas onboard for the simple reason that it is too early in the quarter.
(This is normally a cue for a flurry of VIN assignments which would indicate that I'm wrong, again!)
The argument for her carrying some Teslas is that she will stop at the Western Docks in Southampton (30/31 Oct) and the ICO quay in Zeebrugge on 1 & 2 Nov.
We shall see.....
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