2021 Shipping Movements

[Washout]

Out of interest, while 30 days is about right for a direct route to Southampton, are there routes that could take much longer? I'm wondering if what we're seeing here is the last of the Q3 cars, loaded at a similar time to the last main chartered vessel, but loaded on to smaller boats on less direct routes to get them out of the way?

Technically there are three other routes (assuming the Northwest Passage isn't open )
In order of probability: 1. Around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), 2. Across the Pacific - Panama Canal - Across the Atlantic and 3. Across the Pacific (a bit of Southern Ocean) - Cape Horn - Across the Atlantic.
In practise all three would be extremely unlikely as all of them add thousands of miles to the trip and I'm not sure taking a vehicle carrier around Cape Horn would be "fun" if the weather is bad (and this time of year it starts to get that way in the Southern Hemisphere).
I would stick to the Suez/Europe route

 

[Mr Miserable]

If you calculate how much 4000 Teslas on a ship is worth you will realise that Tesla will always use the quickest route.
There is a rail link now from China to Europe but it's not yet able to match shipping economically or at the scale required at present.
I suspect that as Berlin ramps up production in the years ahead and the requirements from Shanghai reduce there will be a crossover figure where rail becomes a practical alternative. For that to become a reality Tesla would probably need to partner with a European manufacturer that exports to China by rail at similar levels eg BMW.
Until then, ships, via Suez, it is.

 

[Mr Miserable]

HELIOS RAY is puzzling me.
She was looking every bit a prospective Tesla ship but she was late arriving in Shanghai after crossing the Pacific empty. After waiting off Shanghai for a day or two she then left the Shanghai anchorage and was heading back up towards Pyeontaek as if she had been cancelled but she has now stopped again off the S Korean coast as if someone is deciding whether to send her back to Shanghai or not.
We shall see...

 

[Washout]

HELIOS RAY is puzzling me.
She was looking every bit a prospective Tesla ship but she was late arriving in Shanghai after crossing the Pacific empty. After waiting off Shanghai for a day or two she then left the Shanghai anchorage and was heading back up towards Pyeontaek as if she had been cancelled but she has now stopped again off the S Korean coast as if someone is deciding whether to send her back to Shanghai or not.
We shall see...

Does she maybe need maintenance/repairs and they're trying to work out whether to dock for that somewhere before pushing back into service?

 

[Mr Miserable]

TALIA is making good progress across a choppy Arabian Sea. She is currently making 17 kts into a 15kt headwind whilst a southerly swell is countering the local wind to produce the choppy seas. The frequency of the waves is producing what is described as a short sea which can be uncomfortable but the waves are relatively small and so will not be a problem for TALIA. Her latest satellite position was over 3 hours ago
She is estimating to arrive at the southern entrance of the Suez Canal next Wednesday evening and by my calculations her current progress supports that estimate. She is expected to arrive in Southampton on 29 Oct and Zeebrugge on 31 Oct.

Another ship of interest at present is LAKE FUXIAN. She departed Shanghai yesterday enroute to Singapore initially. She is currently about 90 miles north of Taiwan and is heading for the Straits of Taiwan at 18.5kts, which is considered fast for this type of vessel. She is also enduring some choppy seas and gale warnings are currently being broadcast. She should miss the gales as she heads into the Straits later today. She is due to arrive off Singapore on Wednesday morning. If she is a Tesla ship heading for Europe I would expect her to arrive in Zeebrugge around 11 Nov or Southampton on 10 Nov.

LAKE GENEVA is highly likely to be a Tesla charter and is currently alongside Shanghai and is going to be heading for Suez where she is due to arrive on 2 Nov.


Other ships I'm keeping a close eye on are:

THEMIS Currently heading for Singapore Due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 15 Nov
DONG A GLAUCOS Currently alongside Hong Kong. UPDATE: Now bound for Singapore to arrive 19 Oct

 

[nickpowell77]

It sounds like a lot of VIN have been issued and people have collection dates for early Nov, so there must be a ship on the way

 

[Gizmo_]

Spoke to Tesla for an update. Guy said there is a ship due in end of this month for deliveries early Nov. Unfortunately doesn’t have my M3 on that one but hopefully more following swiftly.

 

[MXVConway]

never once thought i'd be this interested in ships

 

[nickpowell77]

It feels like Tesla have transported some cars to UK / Europe on Boats possibly carrying other cars for those ordered in August and missed Q3 deliveries. The 'big one' is yet to set sail

 

[Mr Miserable]

Spoke to Tesla for an update. Guy said there is a ship due in end of this month for deliveries early Nov. Unfortunately doesn’t have my M3 on that one but hopefully more following swiftly.

That would fit with TALIA

 

[Washout]

Just a quick heads up that Wu Wa has his latest YT video up and the holding lot is much more populated from just after the national holiday and the factory looks like its in full swing. I have read that the average daily output is now north of 1,600 vehicles and a rough count of the lot shows it holds about 1,500 ish.
Good news is you can definately see RHD models being produced and the closing shot shows some on the transporter, headed to the docks.
Now if we could just get the same at the piers/berths we'd be in good shape.
Link to video:

 

[_SunShine]

The HELIOS RAY is just cruising around .... and now close to South Korea .... drunken captain maybe

 

[Mr Miserable]

TALIA continues to make excellent progress at an average speed of just under 18kts. She will shortly enter the calm waters of the Gulf of Aden and head SW to the entrance to the Red Sea which lies about 700NM ahead. She is bang-on schedule to arrive at Suez on Wednesday evening. I'm expecting her to arrive in Southampton on 29 Oct and Zeebrugge on 31 Oct.

LAKE FUXIAN has now entered the South China Sea and continues to make 18kts despite the strong E'ly wind creating some very choppy seas. We still don't know for sure that she is a Tesla ship however she ticks a number of boxes and we still need to determine her final destination. She is presently enroute to Singapore where I expect she will refuel. Hopefully she will then depart for Suez. She could arrive in Southampton on 10 Nov or Zeebrugge on 11 Nov.

LAKE GENEVA is another ship that ticks a lot of boxes in the hunt for Tesla ships. She departed Shanghai yesterday and is routing direct to Suez. She could arrive in Southampton on 11 Nov or Zeebrugge on 12 Nov. She is managing to maintain over 16kts in worsening conditions. The winds are over 40kts in her present location and the waves are getting bigger. She has wisely decided to keep clear of the Straits of Taiwan where the effect of wind funneling could create some dangerous seas and instead route to the east of Taiwan. She may have to reduce speed over the next 24 hrs or so as the waves grow larger.

Other ships I am watching closely are:

THEMIS - Heading for Singapore
DONG A GLAUCOS - Heading for Singapore

 

[Electron Mike]

Slow boats from China

 

[Max R]

Spoke to Tesla for an update. Guy said there is a ship due in end of this month for deliveries early Nov. Unfortunately doesn’t have my M3 on that one but hopefully more following swiftly.

When did you order yours? I'm now obsessed with checking for updates and only ordered a week ago....

 

[stefaanbolle]

When did you order yours? I'm now obsessed with checking for updates and only ordered a week ago....

No worries, ordered in april and still curious about the vessel movements

 

[Gizmo_]

When did you order yours? I'm now obsessed with checking for updates and only ordered a week ago....

September 17th. I know the feeling, takes over your life constantly hunting for it.

 

[_SunShine]

HELIOS RAY is now heading for Pyoengtaek

 

[Mr Miserable]

HELIOS RAY is now heading for Pyoengtaek

Yup. I suspect that's not the last we will see of her this quarter. Still worth keeping an eye on in my opinion.

 

[Mr Miserable]

TALIA continues with her fast transit down the Gulf of Aden. She is maintaining 18kts in calm conditions and remains on track to arrive at Suez on Wednesday evening. I'm expecting her to arrive in Southampton on 29 Oct and Zeebrugge on 31 Oct.

LAKE FUXIAN is also maintaining over 18kts as she heads down through the South China Sea towards Singapore where I expect her to refuel. Thereafter I'm hoping she will head to Suez and then on to Southampton (10 Nov) and/or Zeebrugge (11 Nov). I suspect she may be heading to Southampton.

LAKE GENEVA has endured some rough seas over the last 24hrs and she is still not quite out of the woods yet. I suppose it is fortunate that the 30kt+ winds she is still experiencing is a tailwind but she has still had to slow as a result of the sea conditions. She is back up to 16 kts now and it will be another 24 hours before she arrives in calmer waters.
She is routing direct to Suez where she is due to arrive on 2 Nov. She will need to keep her speed up to achieve this though as it is an ambitious target.