2022 Shipping Movements

[Mr Miserable]

So here is the latest (Sun Evening) chart showing the satellite positions of ships that are known to be carrying Teslas onboard:

HYPERION RAY is expected in Southampton late on 08 Feb and Zeebrugge on 10 Feb
HOEGH TRAVELLER was due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 12 Feb but because of delays in Athens has now posted an ETA of 13 Feb. Let's hope she isn't further delayed in Livorno. She is not a Tesla charter, Tesla are just using her to ship some Teslas to Zeebrugge.
VIKING BRAVERY is now in the Med with an ETA for Southampton of 14 Feb, Zeebrugge 16 Feb.
SFL COMPOSER continues her high speed dash towards Suez - she's still averaging 20 kts - which is fast. Anything over about 16 kts sends the fuel consumption up exponentially. My ETA for her Southampton arrival is now 23 Feb, Zeebrugge on 25 Feb.

The following chart shows the latest satellite positions of ships on my watch list:

HELIOS RAY She has gone 'dark' ie she has switched off her AIS transponder as a security measure. We won't see her again until Friday or Saturday.
She is due to arrive in Suez on 14 Feb and then may turn right to Ashdod before continuing on.
LAKE WANAKA Heading to Suez and so is back on the list. Not a strong contender unless we find out that she delivered Teslas to Singapore.
MSC IMMACOLATA If a Tesla ship I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 28 Feb
GRAND PIONEER If a Tesla ship I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 02 Mar
ASIAN EMPEROR If a Tesla ship I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 04 Mar

All the above ships could be carrying Teslas.

RCC AMSTERDAM is currently loading at Shanghai South and will likely join the watch list when she departs. Based on the loading times of the previous ships at Shanghai South I reckon she is very likely to depart tomorrow. I can't find a logical replacement for her at Shanghai South at the moment and so I suspect the surge of activity there is over. GLOVIS CAPTAIN is still lurking but she looks like she will head to the main piers at Haitong.

There is one other ship which I discounted earlier but apparently someone in France has been told their car is onboard it - GLOVIS CONDOR.
She's just waiting to head up the Suez Canal early tomorrow and so I shall be interested to see where she heads off to.

Don't forget to enter the SFL COMPOSER competition.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Thanks for that explanation. It makes sense.

There is another way of figuring this all out. If we knew how many cars the Shanghai Gigafactory produces per day and also by car model distribution. And also the amount of orders from Europe and from the UK by model distribution, then we could pinpoint even further what car is on what ship, based on order date. But this is all an approximation, as I have read somewhere that cars are not made to order, but Tesla just pump out cars with various configurations, based on a predictive model. So it would assume orders are fulfilled just-in-time (JIT) and with a first-in, first-out (FIFO) order.

I think its safe to say, never assume anything with Tesla.
Production numbers are not steady - they are rising beyond all expectations.
It would be easy to say that every ship we have seen depart over the Chinese New Year is a Tesla ship simply based on the numbers I would expect to see in Q1.

 

[jmhumphreys]

I think its safe to say, never assume anything with Tesla.
Production numbers are not steady - they are rising beyond all expectations.
It would be easy to say that every ship we have seen depart over the Chinese New Year is a Tesla ship simply based on the numbers I would expect to see in Q1.

They certainly seem to be churning them out! Judging by the comments made by the Tesla rep on chat this evening, they are potentially expecting more deliveries than usual in the next few weeks.

 

[JDilleen]

They certainly seem to be churning them out! Judging by the comments made by the Tesla rep on chat this evening, they are potentially expecting more deliveries than usual in the next few weeks.

I was in the Cork store here yesterday, Ireland has historically only registered about 800~ a year but the employee told me that February alone this year has 600~ cars being delivered.

 

[X-Cile]

Saw the video released earlier this morning showing a ship at the Luchao Port and it was the Asian Emperor. Safe to say it is carrying Teslas

 

[Michael C]

Since we saw ASIAN EMPEROR arrive she will be ship no 1, we saw ASIAN EXPLORER depart to Japan, Ship No 2 and RCC AMSTERDAM is loading now, Ship No 3. I can't see anything obvious waiting in the wings and so I think 3 ships worth is bang on the money.

The video shooting date was 5th according to WuWa, a day and a half seems really fast to load that many Tesla on to RoRo. It maybe that explorer doesn't have many aboard like you suspect and there is another ship to come?

 

[Satibo]

Anyone know where I can search with my VIN in different ships that are on the way to see if I have a match on any of the ships?

 

[Johnsen92]

Any idea when the next delivery in drammen will be?

 

[Satibo]

Or does anyone know where I can check what type of specs my M3LR has with my assigned VIN or is that not possible?

 

[Mr Miserable]

Any idea when the next delivery in drammen will be?

Yes.
AUTO ADVANCE arrives Drammen 17 Feb There may be a shipment on this vessel.
PROMETHEUS LEADER arrives on 24 Feb. This is the one I would expect most cars on.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Anyone know where I can search with my VIN in different ships that are on the way to see if I have a match on any of the ships?

You can check to see if your car is on the HOEGH TRAVELLER here. That's it.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Or does anyone know where I can check what type of specs my M3LR has with my assigned VIN or is that not possible?

Not possible on the shipping thread.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The video shooting date was 5th according to WuWa, a day and a half seems really fast to load that many Tesla on to RoRo. It maybe that explorer doesn't have many aboard like you suspect and there is another ship to come?

I agree entirely with the maths of loading however you have to realise that Shanghai South/Luchao/Nangang is working at half the speed of Haitong.
There we have regularly seen 3500 cars loaded in 24 hours. That is insanely fast, 3 -4 times faster than at an EU port, as you know. They may even be faster because the ship would have to wait for high water to depart.
I suspect Tesla have thrown some money at the problem of the CNY and are paying some top dollar to get the stevedores from Haitong, the bulk of which would have been on holiday, to load some ships at Shanghai South.
The turnround is just too fast for what we have seen from Shanghai South in previous quarters.
At the end of the day I suppose it all depends on how many teams of stevedores are on the task and crucially, how experienced they are.

 

[Goldey]

Yes.
AUTO ADVANCE arrives Drammen 17 Feb There may be a shipment on this vessel.
PROMETHEUS LEADER arrives on 24 Feb. This is the one I would expect most cars on.

This is really good to know! I'm waiting for a shipment to Drammen myself, but I thought my M3 would be aboard SFL Composer. These two ships you speak of, where did they load (or where will they load) their cars? Will the Composer drop off a load, for these to pick up?

 

[amtor42]

I got the VIN in the code and a notification for delivery 17.02-01.03. So I believe it is on either the HYPERION RAY (Zeebrugge on 10 Feb) or the VIKING BRAVERY (Zeebrugge 16 Feb). Does anyone know about port processing and transport to destination times to Germany?

 

[jmhumphreys]

I agree entirely with the maths of loading however you have to realise that Shanghai South/Luchao/Nangang is working at half the speed of Haitong.
There we have regularly seen 3500 cars loaded in 24 hours. That is insanely fast, 3 -4 times faster than at an EU port, as you know. They may even be faster because the ship would have to wait for high water to depart.
I suspect Tesla have thrown some money at the problem of the CNY and are paying some top dollar to get the stevedores from Haitong, the bulk of which would have been on holiday, to load some ships at Shanghai South.
The turnround is just too fast for what we have seen from Shanghai South in previous quarters.
At the end of the day I suppose it all depends on how many teams of stevedores are on the task and crucially, how experienced they are.

Sounds credible to me. On a micro level, my TA was telling me that the Tesla staff philosophy is that everyone should be prepared to get 'all hands on deck' to ensure all deliveries can be met within quarter. If this means that they have to trek across the country from their usual location and be put up in a hotel for three weeks in Southampton to offload and process the arrivals, then that is what they do (and that is what he was doing when I last spoke to him a couple of weeks ago). I know there will be many on here who would question that, but it does seem that despite the shortcomings in the process, they do seem to work very hard to try and make it work.

 

[ToniN]

Greetings! I've been following this thread closely even though I'm waiting for my Model 3 in Finland since this thread has extremely valuable information, kudos to Mr Miserable.
Just got my VIN (858XX) in the source code. Estimated delivery window was postponed from "February" to March 1st - March 15th. I assume that it would either be on one of the confirmed Tesla ships already well under way or on one of those that have just departed Shanghai.

Just received confirmation from Tesla chat that my order is on Viking Bravery.

 

[Kithran]

Sounds credible to me. On a micro level, my TA was telling me that the Tesla staff philosophy is that everyone should be prepared to get 'all hands on deck' to ensure all deliveries can be met within quarter. If this means that they have to trek across the country from their usual location and be put up in a hotel for three weeks in Southampton to offload and process the arrivals, then that is what they do (and that is what he was doing when I last spoke to him a couple of weeks ago). I know there will be many on here who would question that, but it does seem that despite the shortcomings in the process, they do seem to work very hard to try and make it work.

Actually I'd say this is the only way ti can work given the cars are coming in en-masse by ship - compare it to cars produced in a uk factory where the simply way to do it would be daily car transporters from the factory at which point you have a very steady flow of deliveries. As you basically have nothing then a ship with say 3500 vehicles on you can't have a steady flow and instead have big batches. Given the reported crowding at ports leaving cars at the port long term is a no-go, with the issues with lorry driers I can imagine it can get expensive or impossible to get enough transporter drivers in a short period so moving staff to enable as many vehicles as possible can be delivered to customers at (or virtually at) the point they come off the ship is actually the best way. It means those that can get to the port get their car earlier than they otherwise would have.

 

[Maplepho]

Did they report arriving a bit earlier?

 

[_SunShine]