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2022 Shipping Movements

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The AIS ETA is, as predicted, 20 Sep.
The ETA shown on the tracker will vary depending on current speed etc but the AIS ETA should be derived from the voyage management system, at least on a modern vessel. In this case it is showing as 03:00 on 20 Sep.
I originally forecast an ETA for Zeebrugge to be around 19 Sep however based on the delay in arrival at Suez I amended it to 20 Sep a couple of days ago. I am just pleased that the destination was confirmed as Zeebrugge as my forecast was solely based on EU VIN activity and the fact it was most likely to be be heading to Zeebrugge.
@Mr Miserable: thank you for your continuing efforts on educating us on this interesting matter. I know we n00bs can be a burden at times, yet you take your time to respond. That is <searches for words to express gratitude in his limited vocubulary ..> Totally Awesome! (OK a bit of Australian it is).
 
I have a question that is probably very naïve, but here it is :
How can the Glovis Sun arrive in Zeebrugge on September 20th at 3am although she is still ~5200km away (according to google maps). If she keeps a constant speed of 18kn throughout her journey this would work, but is this realistic ? All ship that I checked in the Atlantic (for example Glovis Sunrise) are slower than that (16kn or below).
 
Slightly off topic, but with the number of ships delivering cars, it made me think of the human aspect of working out the logistics.

Definitely commend those that are willing to work in isolation for such long periods whilst we just go about our day to day.

 
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I have a question that is probably very naïve, but here it is :
How can the Glovis Sun arrive in Zeebrugge on September 20th at 3am although she is still ~5200km away (according to google maps). If she keeps a constant speed of 18kn throughout her journey this would work, but is this realistic ? All ship that I checked in the Atlantic (for example Glovis Sunrise) are slower than that (16kn or below).
OK Lets keep the distances in nautical miles and the speed in kts - keeps the sums easier!
The distance from Port Said to Zeebrugge is approximately 3208 NM and at 18 kts it will take 7 days and 10 hrs.
If she does 18.5 kts it will knock 5 hrs off that time.
She is quite capable of maintaining 18.5 kts all the way however the most economic cruising speed for these vessels is about 16 kts.
GLOVIS SUN lost a day due to rough seas in the Arabian Sea which for some reason she couldn't make up but by increasing her speed by 2.5kts for the Suez - Zeebrugge leg she will make up around 25 hrs.
 
Tuesday 13 Sep 22

Click HERE to see a wonderful map of the world. Superimposed on it are the latest positions, updated via satellite, of confirmed Tesla ships.

Those ships are:

GLOVIS SUNRISE is now in the North Atlantic and making her way up the coast of Portugal. She is heading for Southampton where she is due to arrive in the early hours of Friday morning 16 Sep. It's worthy of note that her departure from Southampton is not until very late on 18 Sep which would tend to indicate that there will be no Teslas left onboard when she arrives in Zeebrugge. Competition results tomorrow!

GLOVIS SUN is in the Mediterranean and is heading for Zeebrugge with an ETA of 20 Sep.

GLOVIS CRYSTAL has completed her Suez transit and is now in the Mediterranean. She should arrive in Koper on Friday evening, 16 Sep.

GLOVIS COURAGE is in the Gulf of Aden and should pass into the Red Sea later tonight. She is bound for Barcelona with an ETA of 20 Sep.

There is a rumour, or possibly wishful thinking, that there are Teslas onboard HOEGH TRAVELLER which will arrive in Le Havre on 12 Oct and then Zeebrugge on 15 Oct. The good news is that this is very easy to confirm - if you have your VIN enter it HERE and it will tell you whether your car is onboard. This only works for cars onboard Hoegh ships. Do let me know if a search is successful.

Typhoon Muifa is still forecast to hit the Shanghai area on Thursday afternoon. The typhoon is not decaying as fast as originally forecast. As of now (Tue) it still remains a category 2 storm with wave heights of 36 ft. The forecasters are now suggesting that the storm will hit land around Ningpo and this will cause the storm to rapidly decay. The GF is looking like it will be directly under the path of the typhoon but according to the latest forecast it will still be a category 1 storm (winds around 90mph) by then. The storm will continue on to hit Shanghai city centre. Even if the winds do decay, the rainfall won't and local flooding is likely.

The Shanghai RoRo berths are now empty.

Please check out the Links of interest There are some excellent links there which may answer any questions you have.

Screenshot 2022-09-13 at 19.40.56.png
 
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MrM. If that ship is carrying Tesla, does that fit in the the German leak at all, or assuming it's a scheduled service like other Hoegh, is it excluded from the leak?
No it does not feature in the leak. The previous use of a Hoegh ship did feature in the leak.
I'm not sure the leak has much relevance any more since a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. (send for a plumber)
More importantly I have now seen evidence that some Teslas are onboard the ship.
HOEGH TRAVELLER is moving Teslas over a quarter end.
 
I have now seen evidence that HOEGH TRAVELLER is carrying Teslas to Zeebrugge with an ETA of 15 Oct.
Whether she will unload Teslas at her first stop in Le Havre as well is presently undetermined.
This signifies a major change in the drumbeat of Tesla shipments with cars at sea over a quarter end - something previously avoided by Tesla at any cost.
We don't know how many cars are onboard. The last shipment using Hoegh had 2000.
It will cause a one-off penalty against the Q3 figures but ensures that Q4 starts with a bang.
If you wanted to ensure Q4 figures were above expectations, this is the kind of move that would be required.
It is also brings in to question whether there is a part load of Teslas onboard GRAND VENUS which arrives in Zeebrugge on 09 Oct.
Unfortunately, there isn't a method to check to see whether a car is onboard this ship.
Nevertheless, GRAND VENUS is back as a suspect.
 
I have now seen evidence that HOEGH TRAVELLER is carrying Teslas to Zeebrugge with an ETA of 15 Oct.
Whether she will unload Teslas at her first stop in Le Havre as well is presently undetermined.
This signifies a major change in the drumbeat of Tesla shipments with cars at sea over a quarter end - something previously avoided by Tesla at any cost.
We don't know how many cars are onboard. The last shipment using Hoegh had 2000.
It will cause a one-off penalty against the Q3 figures but ensures that Q4 starts with a bang.
If you wanted to ensure Q4 figures were above expectations, this is the kind of move that would be required.
It is also brings in to question whether there is a part load of Teslas onboard GRAND VENUS which arrives in Zeebrugge on 09 Oct.
Unfortunately, there isn't a method to check to see whether a car is onboard this ship.
Nevertheless, GRAND VENUS is back as a suspect.
Isn't that curious because the Hoegh Traveller did not call at Shanghai south so perhaps evidence of tesla shipping from other wharves. Never say never I suppose
 
GLOVIS SUNRISE competition.

The results are in!

We have a BULLSEYE!

At 1200z today the ship was located in Grid Square O2 and within its Minor Square 6

The marksman who achieved this amazing feat is @Chocochip (O2 6) who was just 24 NM off target. (Distance measured from the centre of the chosen square to the ship's position at midday)
In 2nd place was @PhDSurvivor (O2 6) who was a mere 24 NM off target.
In 3rd place was @htlon (N2 10) who was 37 NM off target.

Congratulations to all, but there isn't so much as even a cuddly toy to win!

Some trivia for you:
The most popular Major Square was O1
The most popular Minor Square overall was 17
If you had chosen that combination, which 6 people did, you would have ended up 208 NM off target.
 
The marksman who achieved this amazing feat is @Chocochip (O2 6) who was just 24 NM off target.
I’d like to thank the Academy @Mr Miserable for this unbelievable award; also my agent, as well as all the fans my wife who always believed in me had to put up with me ranting about RoRo ships crossing the Mediterranean!
 
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