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#41
googlepeakoil said:
One analyst described it as "one of the worst quarters he'd seen in tech history" - yet the share price was flat in after hours trading!! Others said "Elon imagines sales will magically arrive in the end of the year" paraphrasing Wall Street analysts.
Some numbers.
They lost $702m last quarter. Meanwhile Ford, same valuation, but 20x as many sales, and pays a 5% dividend made billions in profit.
They were nearly bankrupt (10 days from Q end they had only sold $2.2bn of their $4.4bn revenue, and ended Q1 with $2.2bn - so in theory they were at $0 in the bank at some point 10 days from Q1 end.
Elon spoke about possible dilution to raise capital - Wall Street expects a $2.5bn capital raise.
They've been range-bound trading in a $250-380 trading range for 2 years - always bouncing off low $250s, and have JUST fallen through it! Any chartist would tell you they're falling to the previous range, which is about $180.
Solar deployment fell 15-20%
Storage deployment were flat.
Their main battery supplier (Panasonic) is losing money and for some reason won't increase production!
So no, I think it's a terrible time to buy.
On the plus side the automony bit was an amazing presentation (and a damage limitation exercise given the horrendous Q1 numbers!), and Lyft and Uber have bonkers valuations of $80bn - so maybe! But then don't expect FSD level 5 to arrive in "Elon time" - think 5 years for legislation.
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I've got to give kudos to @googlepeakoil. In hindsight, this was a superb post about the situation just after Q1 earnings came out. Everyone should read this post after what we've been through over the last month.
 
#45
pend1971 said:
LOL tell that to people who bought Tesla at $360. Tesla stock is a funny joke.
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Sure, the problem with most people is that they jump in when the times are good that's when you pay a premium. When it's the scariest then everyone runs away but that's when you get discounts. People need to learn to ignore their emotions and try to use their logical side of the brain.
 
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#46
How do you know $230 or even $160 is "scary enough"? Right now if you buy the 2025 bonds you collect 9% per year if nothing bad happens and end up owning the new company if the worst happens. We're a short recession away from really scary. A 50% stock decline doesn't even begin to touch scary.
 
#47
sunny-value said:
How do you know $230 or even $160 is "scary enough"? Right now if you buy the 2025 bonds you collect 9% per year if nothing bad happens and end up owning the new company if the worst happens. We're a short recession away from really scary. A 50% stock decline doesn't even begin to touch scary.
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This. I said this in another thread but I like short term Tesla bonds. They have enough cash to survive the next 3- 6 months and if not Elon can just start a GoFundMe page to raise cash from all his fanboys.

Tesla stock is a joke.
 
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#48
MaxPowers said:
Sure, the problem with most people is that they jump in when the times are good that's when you pay a premium. When it's the scariest then everyone runs away but that's when you get discounts. People need to learn to ignore their emotions and try to use their logical side of the brain.
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That's exactly what I did. Don't think with emotion I SHORTED it months ago and just covered it a few days ago. Could I make more? I think so, but found something better to do with the money. However, I am not buying it back. I'm putting the money somewhere else for awhile. Best of luck on your purchase.
 
#49
Silicon Desert said:
That's exactly what I did. Don't think with emotion I SHORTED it months ago and just covered it a few days ago. Could I make more? I think so, but found something better to do with the money. However, I am not buying it back. I'm putting the money somewhere else for awhile. Best of luck on your purchase.
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I posted on here a week or so ago, trying to decide if I should get back in at all (close to IPO buyer lucky enough to have gotten out in the high 300s). You and a bunch of others have convinced me that I should look elsewhere with any money I hope to get back. Everyone who is bullish to really super bullish on here no longer sounds plausible to me. Its one think to sink 25,000$ into a thousand shares and hope for the best when a company is new (and do so with multiple newish companies) and quite another to decide to put 300k plus back into that name even after it has fallen 50%.
 
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#50
sunny-value said:
I posted on here a week or so ago, trying to decide if I should get back in at all (close to IPO buyer lucky enough to have gotten out in the high 300s). You and a bunch of others have convinced me that I should look elsewhere with any money I hope to get back. Everyone who is bullish to really super bullish on here no longer sounds plausible to me. Its one think to sink 25,000$ into a thousand shares and hope for the best when a company is new (and do so with multiple newish companies) and quite another to decide to put 300k plus back into that name even after it has fallen 50%.
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So I hope I am not convincing anyone to do one or the other with Tesla :) I was just stating my recent short cover. Like anyone else I can be 50% right and 50% wrong. I just got lucky a few times on this stock and not willing to press my luck at this point to either buy again or short again. I'll wait while the money is at work elsewhere.

Frankly, my process is not to make decisions on selling a stock that I own based on where the price is now and where I "GUESS" it will go from here. The process that has worked for me at least 80% of the time is that as soon as I buy a stock, I immediately go in and put a trailing stop on it. The percentage of the trail depends on the volatility of the stock. Then I don't have to worry about it or watch it, else I would probably be wrong more often than right if I am making the decision to sell. Likewise, when I short a stock, I immediately go in and put a cover order at a percentage above the current price and a cover at a price below. That's my process and for 35 years, it has served me well. Everyone has their own technique of course.

Lastly, the part that bothers me right now is what ANALyst say. I never follow them or their advice, but know that other many other people do. My decisions are based on a lot of factors and data from fundamental and technical and general market direction. There are bears out there saying $10 which I think is ridiculous, and bulls saying $4,000 in 5 years which I also doubt.
 
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#57
MaxPowers said:
OMG, I'm not sure what's going on with the tsla stock but I'm buying as much as I can. This is Christmas in April :)
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Lol! Most of the movement in TSLA over the last few months has been following the market. Often the market movement is exaggerated, but the same general moves. The exceptions tend to be news based such as the recent announcement of a collaboration with VW making the stock move up a bit and the recent law suit by Walmart making it move down a lot and by that I mean A LOT! Nothing comparable to the second quarter report however. There seems to be little anyone can do to hurt this stock other than what Tesla does to themselves.

There were significant gains in the last three months, but they have been wiped out by the negative news. Otherwise, TSLA just follows the market.
 
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