4 Month Wait, not normal

[Sonic_78]

We ordered our MX on February 20th. I just received an email from our Delivery Specialist who has informed us that our MX is scheduled to be delivered the 2nd half of June. When I asked the SC about why the long wait they say, "Well, thats about normal."

I know sales have been off the charts, Tesla said earlier. Demand outweighs supply. I get it, but 4 months?

Reviewing the MX Order & Delivery tracker most are 45 days, some push into 60 or 70 days. Most VIN's issued within a few weeks. Anything over 100 is pretty much non exinsistant. And these will be past that. Has there ever been this long of wait for regular production S or X? From what I understand S owners are in the same boat.

We're not in any rush for the car so I'm not complaining just find it off-putting that the OA and DS are like, "Yeah, thats about normal." When it's clearly not.

With all that being said, delivery on a new MX still shows June so it's likely that yes it is abnormal but I just got in first on a new batch production cycle.

 

[vandacca]

Deliveries to the US is at the end of every quarter. That would be March, June, Sept, December. You missed the previous batch, so it's probably normal. Just bad timing. If you ordered 2-3 weeks earlier, there would have been a small chance it would be delivered at end of March.

On the bright side, you'll get all the new upgrades coming out over the next 3 months, like MCU2!

 

[ModlS3XY]

Deliveries to the US is at the end of every quarter. That would be March, June, Sept, December. You missed the previous batch, so it's probably normal. Just bad timing. If you ordered 2-3 weeks earlier, there would have been a small chance it would be delivered at end of March.

On the bright side, you'll get all the new upgrades coming out over the next 3 months, like MCU2!

But I do see people in the US who are taking delivery in other months too. Watch the threads the next couple of months and people in the US will talk about their recent deliveries,

 

[vandacca]

But I do see people in the US who are taking delivery in other months too. Watch the threads the next couple of months and people in the US will talk about their recent deliveries,

Typically custom-orders have deliveries at end-of-quarter for the US. If someone buys a used or CPO, that can happen anytime. Sometimes the end-of-quarter is missed, and they actually get delivered at the beginning of the next quarter. Those are referred to as "in-transit" on Tesla's end-of-quarter calls.

 

[ModlS3XY]

@vandacca - interesting. Thanks!
@Sonic_78 - do you have a VIN yet? When was it assigned?

 

[HankLloydRight]

One of my referrals ordered a car on 12/27/2017 and still hasn't delivered.

Hope they don't cancel.

 

[2012MS85]

Tesla is going to be extremely close to selling its 200,000th EV in the US on June 30, 2018. For obvious reasons related to the $7,500 EV tax credit (which can remain at the full $7500 through Dec 31, 2018, if they hit 200k after June 30), Tesla (and all US buyers of a Tesla) want #200k to occur in July. So I predict Tesla will fulfill every possible non-US order for an S, X and 3 (i.e., Canada) until they can manage the Q2 deliveries to US customers in June to ensure they remain just under that 200k magical threshold. If your new S ends up being #200,000 in the US, I can guarantee your delivery will be on July 1

Tesla's cumulative US sales through the end of Q1 appear to be just over 180k, which leaves less than 10k S+X and another 10k 3s to sell in the US during Q2. And if they maximize their 3 sales to Canada, plus S&X sales overseas, they should be able to sell the remainder in the US during Q2 and just barely stay under the 200k target that will allow tens of thousands of future 3 owners (in Q3 & Q4) to obtain the full tax credit they've been expecting since placing their $1k deposits over two years ago!

 

[commasign]

You have a higher chance of getting the rumored interior refresh.

 

[DinoJuice]

Heh - I'm in a similar boat. Ordered 3/23 for "June Delivery." Two weeks in and the waiting is killing me. I can't imagine how you (or that December order) must feel...

What worries me is that you're already being told late-June for a February order. I mean I think we all expect Q2 S/X deliveries to be limited, but it will be interesting to see just how many of us are pushed into July. There's still a ton of runway for placing Q2 orders, so it's hard to believe some are already scheduled to the end of the month. I'm just hoping they don't push June orders to September, but I guess we shouldn't rule it out.

Nick

 

[DinoJuice]

You have a higher chance of getting the rumored interior refresh.

I haven't seen any details about this other than the new MCU which has happened. Where in the forums would I look for speculation like this?

FWIW someone at the local dealer mentioned they thought the brakes on the P100D were changing suppliers and not to count on them being painted red if I went that route.

 

[TexasEV]

FWIW someone at the local dealer mentioned they thought the brakes on the P100D were changing suppliers and not to count on them being painted red if I went that route.

I wouldn’t count on anything a local dealer tells you, since Tesla doesn’t have dealers. It has stores. That’s one of the joys of buying a Tesla, avoiding the auto dealer cartel.

 

[Sonic_78]

@vandacca - interesting. Thanks!
@Sonic_78 - do you have a VIN yet? When was it assigned?

I do not have a VIN yet. I’m at 6 weeks after order confirmation.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Tesla is going to be extremely close to selling its 200,000th EV in the US on June 30, 2018. For obvious reasons related to the $7,500 EV tax credit (which can remain at the full $7500 through Dec 31, 2018, if they hit 200k after June 30), Tesla (and all US buyers of a Tesla) want #200k to occur in July. So I predict Tesla will fulfill every possible non-US order for an S, X and 3 (i.e., Canada) until they can manage the Q2 deliveries to US customers in June to ensure they remain just under that 200k magical threshold. If your new S ends up being #200,000 in the US, I can guarantee your delivery will be on July 1

Tesla's cumulative US sales through the end of Q1 appear to be just over 180k, which leaves less than 10k S+X and another 10k 3s to sell in the US during Q2. And if they maximize their 3 sales to Canada, plus S&X sales overseas, they should be able to sell the remainder in the US during Q2 and just barely stay under the 200k target that will allow tens of thousands of future 3 owners (in Q3 & Q4) to obtain the full tax credit they've been expecting since placing their $1k deposits over two years ago!

What's strange about this theory is that Tesla added over 100 new Inventory cars today. If they're really that close, I'm not sure what their strategy is there.

 

[2012MS85]

What's strange about this theory is that Tesla added over 100 new Inventory cars today. If they're really that close, I'm not sure what their strategy is there.

Nothing strange about that, as Tesla is in the business of selling those inventory (and custom ordered) cars. It's a new quarter and Tesla wants to find an ongoing stream of new buyers, both in the US and abroad. They definitely control what orders get filled and when. They'll clearly sell every new inventory car now. And then they can manage the new custom orders around the 200k US target. They will prudently prioritize every non-US customer, and then do their best logistically to delay the US sales. Again, they aren't trying to sell zero US cars; 19k is still a large number of US sales to work with and still stay under 200k until July 1. 19k US Teslas amounts to 244 cars - on average - for every day in Q2 that's not a Sunday. It's all quite manageable, and smart for all involved.

 

[HankLloydRight]

That's kind of a stretch there. The idea of selling inventory cars is to sell them quickly to buyers who don't want to wait, not delay them as long as possible into July.

And if they're telling people for the last two months that custom orders now are June deliveries, but they delay all of those into July for the tax credit, that's going to piss off a ton of people, as well have a detrimental effect on quarterly sales. It's a big conflict -- maximize sales for the quarter and wall street, or manipulate (reduce) sales over 200k to extend the tax credit. They can't create demand in Canada and overseas if the demand isn't there. They can't bet their 2Q numbers on only selling outside of the US.

 

[2012MS85]

That's kind of a stretch there. The idea of selling inventory cars is to sell them quickly to buyers who don't want to wait, not delay them as long as possible into July.

And if they're telling people for the last two months that custom orders now are June deliveries, but they delay all of those into July for the tax credit, that's going to piss off a ton of people, as well have a detrimental effect on quarterly sales. It's a big conflict -- maximize sales for the quarter and wall street, or manipulate (reduce) sales over 200k to extend the tax credit. They can't create demand in Canada and overseas if the demand isn't there. They can't bet their 2Q numbers on only selling outside of the US.

I stated that Tesla's goal with inventory cars is to sell them "now." And nowhere did I say Tesla would be betting their Q2 sales on only non-US customers...I forecasted that Tesla needs 19,000 US buyers/deliveries in Q2 (which is likely a bit under half of their production capabilities). They have many multiples of that 19k as Model 3 reservations that have been waiting for 2 years with their $1k deposits paid, and many of those 3 buyers will still wait another YEAR. So having some small portion of new S&X custom orders receive a July 1 delivery (vs current promise to OP of "2nd half of June"...which includes, by definition, June 30) is not going to be a big deal. To be frank, a July 1 delivery would be a mere 24 hours "late." And if 24 hours late is really a big deal for any Tesla product, then someone doesn't know Elon's "Tesla time" regarding promises tied to a calendar date.

 

[HankLloydRight]

To be frank, a July 1 delivery would be a mere 24 hours "late." And if 24 hours late is really a big deal for any Tesla product, then someone doesn't know Elon's "Tesla time" regarding promises tied to a calendar date.

Come on, that's an even bigger stretch and horrible customer service. Tesla isn't going to deliver on July 1st the tens of thousands of cars to everyone who has been waiting since February..just to be "24 hours late".. when they were promised to be delivered in June. It's going to take weeks to deliver all those stacked up cars.

 

[2012MS85]

Come on, that's an even bigger stretch and horrible customer service. Tesla isn't going to deliver on July 1st the tens of thousands of cars to everyone who has been waiting since February..just to be "24 hours late".. when they were promised to be delivered in June. It's going to take weeks to deliver all those stacked up cars.

I'm assuming you have a dry sense of humor, and that you know that Tesla isn't stockpiling "tens of thousands" of their cars

To be clear, Tesla is making all the Model 3s they can (which has only totaled 10k since their reveal two years ago), and they're clearly trying to ship every possible 3 in Q2 to Canada to help stay under the 200k target (i.e., hitting no sooner than July 1). Based on lots of real data released by Tesla, Bloomberg, and others, I predict that Tesla can/will only produce and sell about 20-25k M3s in Q1; of that, about 10k will be sold in the US. That leaves 9k for combined S+X sales is the US during Q2 (not zero). So I expect Tesla will be able to do as they've been doing and sell half (or a little more) of their total S&X monthly production, which during Q2 is likely to follow historical levels of 7k/month. So it's not a big conspiracy that no one is getting their custom ordered Tesla. Using FIFO, those who ordered in December (and are still waiting) will get their Tesla this month, Jan orders will show up in Apr/May, Feb orders in May/Jun, Mar in Jun, and yes, a few recent orders may slip to July 1 (and dare I say, intentionally, if that particular order ends up being the 200,000th US Tesla). For Tesla to do otherwise would "piss off" literally tens of thousands of future Tesla owners who would otherwise receive their S/X/3 in Q4 and otherwise lose half their $7500 tax credit (when 3 production could possibly be churning out 10,000 M3s per week)!

If Tesla doesn't have this 200,000th US delivery AFTER June 30 as part of their "Master Plan, part trois," then Tesla WILL be bankrupt before year-end for lack of a CFO who understands numbers. And if that turns out to be the case, you can have my M3 reservation that I've been holding and waiting patiently on for two years and three days ;o)

 

[HankLloydRight]

I predict

How convenient it is that you predict something that exactly supports your assertions. Funny how that works.

For Tesla to do otherwise would "piss off" literally tens of thousands of future Tesla owners who would otherwise receive their S/X/3 in Q4 and otherwise lose half their $7500 tax credit

The rules are the rules... people that far down on the list already know it's a possibility that they might not be eligible for the full tax credit... and if that's the way the numbers fall, so be it... it's not Tesla's fault for NOT manipulating their sales and delivery numbers solely to manipulate the tax code.

Even in March of 2016 people were trying to predict when and even IF any Model 3s would get a tax credit. If the tax credit was that important to people back then, they would/should have been first in line to reserve, and would already have an option to order a M3 with the full tax credit. So if anyone is 'pissed off' about missing the full or half tax credit, they only have themselves to blame.

I have an M3 reservation made on 3/31 at the M3 reveal event... I can place an order any time, but I'm waiting for the AWD model. If I loose the full or half tax credit waiting, the only one to blame is me.

If Tesla doesn't have this 200,000th US delivery AFTER June 30 as part of their "Master Plan, part trois," then Tesla WILL be bankrupt before year-end for lack of a CFO who understands numbers.

Wow, that's the most twisted logic you've presented yet. Tesla goes backyupt because they did or didn't sell their 200,000 US car in July vs June? Yikes.

I predict that the number of M3 reservation holders who cancel because they lose a $3750 tax credit isn't enough to bankrupt Tesla.

 

[cartech]

I ordered on Feb 14th, one or two days after Model X deliveries slipped to June. But since I ordered just when it happened I got lucky and my Model X delivered couple of weeks back even though my estimated initial delivery said June. I kind of knew it was March when I got a VIN assigned immediately after my order confirmed on Feb 17th.
You should have known that your delivery was June when you placed the order itself, was it a surprise when your DS told you this? As others have mentioned looks like Tesla does most of their custom order deliveries end of quarter, sure there are exceptions with few orders delivering in the middle for whatever reason. But since this quarter deliveries are almost over, unfortunately next wave of big US deliveries are June. And if you are in west coast you are looking at delivery towards almost end of June since west coast deliveries are the last.