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4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Yes I have just been thinking about this.
Seems to me that the IRA per kWh subsides for cell production might be chemistry agnostic. What that means is that LFP delivers the best bang for your buck comparing the IRA subsides to the raw materials costs.
My long standing assumption is that Chinese LFP will not be favourably treated under the IRA so for cars and energy storage batteries intened for the US market, Chinese LFP are the cells that Tesla wants to factor out.
For US production exported to other countries, Chinese LFP is no problem.
For 2170s produced at Sparks, these are treated favourably under the IRA, Tesla and Panasonic split the subsidy, no need to factor them out.
2170s are used in 2,000-3,000 Model Y packs at Austin, if these can be replaced by 4680 meaning Austin now only makes 4680 Model Ys, that allows up to 200 2170 LR 500 mile semis per week.
IMO continuing to use 2170s in Model 3/Y at Fremont is not big deal, it is the chinese LFP in SR versions for the US market that Tesla would want to replace.
Assuming Austin makes only high nickel 4680s, Sparks might make LFP 4680s.
LFP 4680s made at Sparks could be used for:
- SR 300 mile Semis.
- SR Model 3/Y at Fremont.
- Energy storage batteries at Sparks and Lathrop.
- Cheaper Gen3 vechicles made at a TBD location.
So I wonder if Tesla has given up on extracting Lithium from clay.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yes. Thanks, Martin. First, I just want to say congrats and thanks to the Tesla 4680 team for achieving 1,000 a week in Q4. It was no small feat.
Definitely a result of more than a couple of years of hard work. As far as where we stand, in Texas, one of four lines are in production, with the remaining three in stages of commissioning and install. Really, our 2023 goal as a 4680 team is to deliver a cost-effective ramp of 4680s well ahead of Cybertruck.
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If all excess Chinese LFP (over and above Shanghai needs) is redirected to Berlin, and if all 4680 machinery that had been intended for Berlin gets redirected to Austin, then that would be the best way to milk the US IRA.
An issue is that 3 production for Europe would be subtracting from IRA take, so expect 3 in Europe to remain pricy. Until Europe gets a 3 line or something similar.
Why? Model 3 production for Europe comes from Giga Shanghai. So it shouldn't have any impact on the IRA credits.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Is that 100% certain ? It used to be that the LR and P came from Fremont. Has that changed ?
I think it has been a long time since the Model 3 LR came from Fremont. Here is an article from April of 2020 about the prices of MiC Model 3s:
Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs
Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.
insideevs.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thanks, I'd missed that. At least it means European buyers are getting the better paint jobs.I think it has been a long time since the Model 3 LR came from Fremont. Here is an article from April of 2020 about the prices of MiC Model 3s:
Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs
Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.
But .... are the LR batteries still not coming from Nevada ? If so that would still be a dent in the US-IRA milking job. Or are they now being sourced from somewhere else ?
The LR batteries are made in Shanghai with cells from a local LG Chem plant. (Which some Europe buyers aren't happy with since they think the Panasonic cells are better.)
But in any case, I think you still get the production credit for cells made in the US even if you export them. So it really doesn't matter.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thanks, that is helpful as I'd missed that as well. Some questions if I may.
I take it these are LG 2170 NMC equivalents to the Panasonics ?
What is the status re use of castings on the Shanghai 3 line ? Is it front and back, and is it one back or two back ? (I'm wondering to what extent that becomes just a cut'n'paste job if they refresh Fremont's 3 line to simply be equivalent.)
Are all the RHD 3 LR coming from Shanghai ?
Is there anywhere that Fremont 3 is shipped to except NAFTA + Taiwan ?
I don't know what formulation they use, but they are slightly less energy dense. (I think for the pack there is ~5kWh less capacity.)
I'm not sure that they have moved to casts for the Model 3 yet. They might have during one of the downtimes, but I'm not sure.
I believe so, other than I think Japan.
I think Fremont might still ship to Japan. (I think at this point it may be mostly line up with which charge port the vehicle has. NACS vs. CCS2.)
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thanks.
Whilst we are on the subject of Shanghai, does anyone have any insight into the matter of the stalled expansion ? You know all the land that should have been ready from the preloading by now ?
I would be building Megapacks with Chinese LFP, and Gen3 cars with 4680 LFP.
That requires finding a Chinese manufacturer who can make 4680 LFP. As we are talking about a big contract, that should not be too difficult.
Very slim outside chance Tesla makes 4680 LFP in China.
Austin is IMO another likely location for 4680 LFP , Megapack and Gen3 cars.
A possible location is north of the Cathode plant, they are levelling the ground in thst area.
I guess my point is that with 4680 LFP, a steep ramp of Megapack and Gen3 vechicle production is possible if sufficient lithium can be sourced.
So if Tesla is falling behind 50% compound growth there are ways that they can catch up.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Cylindrical LFP doesn't make a lot of engineering sense. On an earnings call a while back analysts were asking about 2170/4680 LFP and after Drew wandered in the desert a while Elon shut the whole idea down with "we don't do cylindrical iron cells" or words to that effect.
I am surpised on 3 counts.
1. Cylindrical is the cheapest and easiest form of LFP to make.
2. Some of the cells being made at Nevada will be used for energy storage.
3, Tesla talked about aggressively sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes.
The cells at Nevada could be high nickel, that means only B grade cells are used for energy storage, or some A grade high nickel cells are used for energy storage which seems like a waste.
The other consideration is that they talked about iron cathodes on battery day and many times afterwards.
What particular aspect of cylindrical LFP is sub-optimal?
Keep in mind Chinese LFP will be punished under the IRA unless it is made in a North American factory with supply chains from the right countries.
That might be what the LG battery factory will do. But LG is more likely to make 2170s.
If LFP isn't mentioned on March 1 then I am clearly wrong, but in that case the clues are puzzling.
If Tesla are not intending to make cells with iron cathodes, they could be sourcing raw materials for others?
Perhaps the comments Elon made about iron cells occurred before the passage of the IRA?
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I guessing that the benefits of structural battery packs outweigh some loss of volumetric energy density, and that LFP vechicles have less range.
For energy storage the thick steel can is perhaps extra cost that could be factored out, but the trade-off is having cells that can be user in structural packs or energy storage.
For energy storage the thick steel can is perhaps extra cost that could be factored out, but the trade-off is having cells that can be user in structural packs or energy storage.
The other relevant questions are:-
DBE working for a cathode would be a strong incentive to make that kind of cell.
Nevada doesn't at this currently have plans for a cathode plant.
It is getting cathode materials from Austin? Or is making a DBE cathode?
We don't know what the cathode plant does at Austin.
- Does DBE work for high nickel cathodes?
- Does DBE work for single crystal NMC cathodes?
- Does DBE work for iron cathodes?
- Does DBE work for some other type of cathode?
DBE working for a cathode would be a strong incentive to make that kind of cell.
Nevada doesn't at this currently have plans for a cathode plant.
It is getting cathode materials from Austin? Or is making a DBE cathode?
We don't know what the cathode plant does at Austin.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I don't see why it'd be cheaper.
Cylindrical is space-inefficient and a pain to cool. It's main advantage is that it effectively constrains the electrode expansion/contraction that occurs during charge/discharge cycles. That's a big issue with NCA/NMC, but not really with LFP. So why use it?
Nothing prevents Tesla from making prismatic LFP. Of course they may feel sticking with the same form factor outweighs the downsides.
LG apparently plans to make pouch LFP cells in Michigan. Don't know about elsewhere.
I'm sure Tesla will continue shifting to LFP. It's the obvious choice for mainstream EVs, energy storage and high cycle life applications like Robotaxis and trucking. Their current LFP cars do not use cylindrical, though, and I see no reason future cars should. You can build a structural pack with prismatic, as BYD did before Tesla even announced 4680.
What does IRA have to do with cylindrical?
I assumed that it would be easier for Tesla to initially standardize on 4680 and structural packd.
If cooling works for high nickel it works for LFP.
Sure Cylindrical has some issues, but another form factor is extra complexity, that probably costs more to make and may cause issues for structural packs, or at worst require 2 designs, when one would suffice.
The significance of the IRA is that it rewards moving fast, and moving fast is the aim of the mission.
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