4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors

[MC3OZ]

Another consideration is cost.

One analyst asks if 4680 production was at $30 KWh capex.
That is a good question and in the right ballpark, Elon declined to directly answer but instead referenced the space savings.

LFP raw materials $8-$12 kWh, labour + electricity say $10 kWh.
Depending on the yield, Tesla might be at $50-$60 kWh for 4680 LFP.

BYD is probably in the $80-$90 range for LFP.

Tesla might be in the $70-$80 range for high nickel.

All price guesses are for fully ramped, and yields close to the industry average.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't see why it'd be cheaper.

Cylindrical is space-inefficient and a pain to cool. It's main advantage is that it effectively constrains the electrode expansion/contraction that occurs during charge/discharge cycles. That's a big issue with NCA/NMC, but not really with LFP. So why use it?


Nothing prevents Tesla from making prismatic LFP. Of course they may feel sticking with the same form factor outweighs the downsides.


LG apparently plans to make pouch LFP cells in Michigan. Don't know about elsewhere.

I'm sure Tesla will continue shifting to LFP. It's the obvious choice for mainstream EVs, energy storage and high cycle life applications like Robotaxis and trucking. Their current LFP cars do not use cylindrical, though, and I see no reason future cars should. You can build a structural pack with prismatic, as BYD did before Tesla even announced 4680.


What does IRA have to do with cylindrical?

1. From a production manufacturing point of view, cylindical will almost certainly (99% certainly) be better. That has to do with how manufacturing technology works.

2. From a heat diisipation perspective the tabless 4680 seems a fairly good optima. That seems to hold pretty much irrespective of whether LFP or NMC fillings.

3. From a chassis structural perspective the structural 4680 packs seem to be equivalent to an LFP prismatic pack. Maybe there are shades of difference, if so I'd like to know more.

4. I suspect that broadly they are equivalent (NMC 4680 vs prismatic LFP) except that Tesla capital is required (and risked) at this stage for 4680; and that 4680 is very much a work-in-progress which is additional capital risk; whereas prismatic LFP is someone else's capital and someone else's risk.

(I have no view on overall packing efficiency (weight or volume) of structural 4680 vs structural prismatic LFP, and I've not seen an apples-to-apples comparison from anyone; or on heat; or on manufacturing)

Just imho.

 

[Doggydogworld]

1. From a production manufacturing point of view, cylindical will almost certainly (99% certainly) be better. That has to do with how manufacturing technology works.

Why? Cylindrical and Prismatic both use roll-to-roll processing. Only the final step changes.

2. From a heat diisipation perspective the tabless 4680 seems a fairly good optima. That seems to hold pretty much irrespective of whether LFP or NMC fillings.

Tabless alleviates the fat can heat problem, but there's no substitute for surface area. IMHO they lost a lot when they had to revert to snake tubes.

3. From a chassis structural perspective the structural 4680 packs seem to be equivalent to an LFP prismatic pack. Maybe there are shades of difference, if so I'd like to know more.

4680 looks superior in that it resists bending torque in both X and Y directions. Blade is more like corrugated layers, stronger in one direction than the other. On the other hand Tesla's pink goo only contacts ~10% of the top and bottom plates, so it may even out.

If they need the ability to switch battery production lines from nickel to iron (the way Panasonic has switched lines from NCA to NMC), then I agree they'll make LFP 4680s. But my gut says they'll just do prismatic. Musk really slammed the door shut on that analyst in the call. And they use CATL prismatic instead of having CATL build 2170s, which they'd gladly do for a big customer like Tesla. I guess we'll see.

Depending on the yield, Tesla might be at $50-$60 kWh for 4680 LFP.

BYD is probably in the $80-$90 range for LFP.

I see zero possibility that Tesla is beating BYD on cost. They're still struggling with basic scaling issues and low yields.

 

[MC3OZ]

Why? Cylindrical and Prismatic both use roll-to-roll processing. Only the final step changes.


Tabless alleviates the fat can heat problem, but there's no substitute for surface area. IMHO they lost a lot when they had to revert to snake tubes.


4680 looks superior in that it resists bending torque in both X and Y directions. Blade is more like corrugated layers, stronger in one direction than the other. On the other hand Tesla's pink goo only contacts ~10% of the top and bottom plates, so it may even out.

If they need the ability to switch battery production lines from nickel to iron (the way Panasonic has switched lines from NCA to NMC), then I agree they'll make LFP 4680s. But my gut says they'll just do prismatic. Musk really slammed the door shut on that analyst in the call. And they use CATL prismatic instead of having CATL build 2170s, which they'd gladly do for a big customer like Tesla. I guess we'll see.


I see zero possibility that Tesla is beating BYD on cost. They're still struggling with basic scaling issues and low yields.

If Prismatic is going cost a little bit more there needs to be some corresponding benefit that justifies the additional cost. Perhaps there is.

On the capex cost $30 kWh is $30 Million a GWh or $3 Billion for 100 GWh.

Perhaps that is more like $2-2.5 Billion for 100 GWh.

The $8-$12 kWh cost for raw materials might not be battery grade, so perhaps add another $10 kWh there and the end result is about the same number.

Perhaps BYD is now at $60 kWh for LFP, so perhaps if 4680 LFP is at price parity when fully ramped.

But if Tesla buys LFP from BYD, we need to add the BYD profit margin and import duties, any LFP cells Tesla produces get a subsidy under the IRA.

Appart from price, 4680 production is also about adequacy of supply. Tesla will continue to use outside suppliers, but the IRA has strong incentives for local cells in the US market.

 

[petit_bateau]

Why? Cylindrical and Prismatic both use roll-to-roll processing. Only the final step changes.


Tabless alleviates the fat can heat problem, but there's no substitute for surface area. IMHO they lost a lot when they had to revert to snake tubes.


4680 looks superior in that it resists bending torque in both X and Y directions. Blade is more like corrugated layers, stronger in one direction than the other. On the other hand Tesla's pink goo only contacts ~10% of the top and bottom plates, so it may even out.

If they need the ability to switch battery production lines from nickel to iron (the way Panasonic has switched lines from NCA to NMC), then I agree they'll make LFP 4680s. But my gut says they'll just do prismatic. Musk really slammed the door shut on that analyst in the call. And they use CATL prismatic instead of having CATL build 2170s, which they'd gladly do for a big customer like Tesla. I guess we'll see.


I see zero possibility that Tesla is beating BYD on cost. They're still struggling with basic scaling issues and low yields.

It seems to me that the jury is still out on the 4680, and that a lot of the potential technical benefits are not yet (if ever) being reached. But the biggest benefit is that it gives Tesla a degree of autonomy in managing the commercial negotiations with the other cell manufacturers, and that alone is very important. I guess it will become more obvious over the next few years, and especially if other cell manufacturers adopt the 4680 successfully.

 

[MC3OZ]

It seems to me that the jury is still out on the 4680, and that a lot of the potential technical benefits are not yet (if ever) being reached. But the biggest benefit is that it gives Tesla a degree of autonomy in managing the commercial negotiations with the other cell manufacturers, and that alone is very important. I guess it will become more obvious over the next few years, and especially if other cell manufacturers adopt the 4680 successfully.

Investing in another 100 GWh of production indicates some level of confidence.

Last time a company with no prior experience ramped up battery production we were not watching.

 

[Buckminster]

I have expected 4680 LFP since battery day.

Reasons.

1. They literally told us on battery day that is what they would do.
2. Cylindrical LFP is the easiest and cheapest to make,
3. I expect many Gen3 cars to use 4680 LFP structural packs.
4. Tesla are aggressively sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes.
5. Scaling to 3Twh of cell production probably involes 1.5 TWh for energy storage.
6. The IRA provides strong incentives for local cell production.
7. Patents requiring licence fees for LFP have expired.
8. Tesla only reduces costs 6% using imported LFP, making their own that should jump to at least 20%. (Patents expiring lifts that 6% by around 2% or so)

The counter argument is that Elon apparently once said that they are not doing iron in cylindrical format. My impression is that the cathode plant at Austin is for high nickel batteries. So all 100 GWh at Austin is high nickel.

I think that Lathrop will continue to use Chinese LFP but those Megapacks will increasingly be exported. There may be a way of avoiding/offsetting duties when importing for the purposes of export?

 

[Buckminster]

Here is Dr. Jeff Dahn’s October 4, 2022 30 minutes presentation and Q&A, “The Role of Energy Storage and EV Charging in the War on Climate Change,”

Description:
On Oct. 4, 2022, Dr. Jeff Dahn spoke to volunteers at the EAC's Energy Action Team about the role of energy storage and EV charging in the war of climate change. Dr. Dahn is a professor at the Department of Physics & Atmospheric Science and the Department of Chemistry at Dalhousie University. He is also a globally recognized pioneer in the development of the lithium-ion battery and a recent winner of the 2022 Killiam Prize. He is currently working on the million-mile battery sponsored by Tesla Motors.

While he mentioned Tesla Battery Day, he did not elaborate other than to say that it is pretty incredible how much of what was presented that day has been achieved, without listing any.

 

[MC3OZ]

I Posted this in the main thread...

How does everyone interpret Jeff's comments on Sodium Batteries?

Is the Dalhousie team doing Sodium Battery research for Tesla?

I am about 60% sure that they are, but I will need to watch the section again.

About 30 mins in cathode, sodium, iron and managese, anode carbon.

Might be a structured graphene anode, that works for sulphur and aluminum, might work for just about anything?

They are doing Sodium Battery research the real question is if it is for Tesla.

 

[MC3OZ]

I posted more of Jeff Dahn and Sodium here. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Finally this explains best what is happening:- Tesla grants $3 million to Dalhousie University for advanced battery research - Charged EVs

Now Professor Dahn, along with his Dalhousie colleagues Chongyin Yang and Michael Metzger, have received a grant of $3.1 million from Tesla, and another, for $2.9 million, from Canada’s Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) to develop advanced batteries for EVs and grid energy storage.

I'm guessing Dalhousie has a relatively free hand in terms of what they research.

Jeff is more or less pinging tesla to let them know he thinks the Sodium path has some promise.

I'll be surprised if Sodium is mentioned on the March 1 Investor Day, this seems like more of a long term research project aiming for solutions post 2030 that Tesla is helping to fund.

 

[transpondster]

Is that 100% certain ? It used to be that the LR and P came from Fremont. Has that changed ?

Starting 2021 Q3 all Model 3 in Europe were from China, Q1-Q2 had LR from Fremont, but there was battery lottery you could get somewhat smaller LG MIC battery.

MASTER THREAD: 2021 Model 3 - Charge data, battery discussion etc

So assuming the 2022 LR3 and LRY have the same battery packs from Fremont, how does this data look? Usable Battery Predicted Range (rated 330) Obviously there could be slight errors since the 19% added has no decimals so hard to tell if it’s 18.5 or 19.4 or somewhere in the middle. 100% to...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Starting 2021 Q3 all Model 3 in Europe were from China, Q1-Q2 had LR from Fremont, but there was battery lottery you could get somewhat smaller LG MIC battery.

MASTER THREAD: 2021 Model 3 - Charge data, battery discussion etc

So assuming the 2022 LR3 and LRY have the same battery packs from Fremont, how does this data look? Usable Battery Predicted Range (rated 330) Obviously there could be slight errors since the 19% added has no decimals so hard to tell if it’s 18.5 or 19.4 or somewhere in the middle. 100% to...

teslamotorsclub.com

Thanks.

So is this confirmation that the M3-P is now being made in Shanghai ?

 

[transpondster]

Thanks.

So is this confirmation that the M3-P is now being made in Shanghai ?

If I'm not mistaken in Europe M3P
UpTo 2021 Q2 Fremont cars, Q3-4 Shanghai cars with Nevada Panasonic pack, from 2022 Shanghai with LG pack

 

[petit_bateau]

If I'm not mistaken in Europe M3P
UpTo 2021 Q2 Fremont cars, Q3-4 Shanghai cars with Nevada Panasonic pack, from 2022 Shanghai with LG pack

Thanks.

 

[Buckminster]

Sodium - short thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629163586286243840

Could it get a mention at investor day?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630397368142053378

 

[Buckminster]

Single crystal!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630584718889451522

 

[Buckminster]

Drew said they were making progress on both Anode and Cathode. That was the first confirmation that I have heard that Tesla had started using DBE for the cathode. Great to hear.

 

[Buckminster]

6th gen DBE machine being worked on:

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Tesla has tapped China's Ningbo Ronbay New Energy and Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing to help trim materials costs as it ramps up production of 4680 battery cells in the United States, according to the sources, who asked not to be named.
[...]
Tesla plans to use a cathode with more than 90% nickel in the next generation of 4680 cells, two sources said. L&F is expected to be one of the suppliers of that high-nickel cathode, another source said.

Tesla taps Asian firms to improve new battery

It's crunch time at Tesla Inc, where Elon Musk is looking to crack the code for making better, cheaper batteries.

www.bangkokpost.com