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4680 Model Ys?

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The problem is they said during the earnings call they are sending ALL 4680 production to Giga Texas. That leaves nothing for Fremont.
I listened to the earnings call and didn't hear it said that ALL 4680 cells are going to Austin. Also, I couldn't find that statement in the transcript at the following link.

 
But... ALL MY’s out of Austin will be 4680. They are not battery-supply-constrained. The batteries don’t have to only come from Austin right now.
They have enough for their ramp up. And they need to clear their huge backlog of MYLR. There is almost no wait for MYP.
For a brief point in the first few weeks Austin would be hitting their demand for no-wait orders of MYP but then rapidly exceed it.... then what would they do?
It’s unclear how they’re going to do this but building MYP as only car produced at Austin ain’t it, obviously.
And making two kinds of battery packs for Austin ain’t either.
The theory about shutting down Fremont for a a week or so to retool, and doing all Ys from both places in 4680 seems most likely scenario, then bigger question becomes when. March? June? It would be based on ramp up at Austin.
No wait for MYP? Then why are there a large number of us even on this forum who ordered in MYPs in Oct and Nov. who continue to wait for their vehicles? And the configure page has slipped from Feb to Mar for MYP. After fulfilling the MYP orders, they may very well start to work on the backlog of MYLR, but the configure page for MYs ordered today says August for MYLR.
 
No wait for MYP? Then why are there a large number of us even on this forum who ordered in MYPs in Oct and Nov. who continue to wait for their vehicles? And the configure page has slipped from Feb to Mar for MYP. After fulfilling the MYP orders, they may very well start to work on the backlog of MYLR, but the configure page for MYs ordered today says August for MYLR.
I was going on the March EDD on the order page. In a couple days we are in February and March comes next. (and still no production from Austin BTW, all you Youtube hype beasts!) Not compensating for any built in lying on the configuration page, That translates to “you order now, and get your car in 4-8 weeks.” Or, essentially “we are building them at the current rate of order or close to it.” I wasn’t parsing individual orders to see who had 7-seat or whatever.. Sorry for the lack of precision. It’s still one heck of a lot closer to no wait than MYLR orders which now show as late as December 2022
 
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Yes. And that's why it just makes sense to start with the 4680s in the premium MYP and it fits with the time frames established on the configuration page. MYP - March. MY - August.
They are making some 4680s at Giga Austin now, but nowhere near the number they need to handle the demand for all MYs.

By August, the dedicated 4680 facilities should be complete at Giga Austin and Shanghai and all can release MYs with 4680s in August at the same time.

I wonder why there are standard Model 3s in blue sitting outside Giga Austin. Perhaps those are for testing purposes.

And did you see the cars that are covered?
Perhaps they are MYPs or new paint colors.

Your thoughts?

This sure looks like a MYP outside of Giga Texas with its "Dual Motor" and performance wheels.
I would expect them to have needed to build all possible structurally-different configurations of MYs that they’re planning on building there for regulatory approvals, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve built some MYPs.
 
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There is a structural difference between MYP and MYLR? all ears.
Structural’s not the right word (different configuration that’s not cosmetic/insignificant?), but they have the Uberturbine wheels. Not sure if there’s anything else different from the LR but I would imagine there’s something with the wheels that would need testing. I’ll be honest I don’t know the ins and outs of the cars, just talking as a quality manager.
 
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Speaking Anecdotally, with no real proof AT ALL, you see a lot of people still taking delivery of MYs, but not many are getting their MYPs. Also, I feel like my delivery date keeps on moving based on the status of Giga Texas. (Again, I have a biased, hopeful, unrealistic, and impatient outlook for sure!)

I have an MYP (red, with hitch) on order, and the delivery date has been all over the place and seems to line up with everything said here. First, the delivery date was December 2021 when Elon was still hopeful that Austin was going to open by the end of the year, then as 2022 neared, it moved to Jan-Feb 2022, now it's Feb/Mar. I've also seen threads with others who ordered an MYP with similar delivery dates.

It really wouldn't make sense to have 2 different MYs produced at the same time. It's a good way to upset a lot of people. By focusing on MYPs first, they can alleviate that and give them more time to pump out some cars while either prepping Fremont for 4680 productions or stockpile more supply for the MYs.
All that movement that happened to you happened to me with an LR order, step for step. Not sure I would draw any conclusions just yet.
 
Structural’s not the right word (different configuration that’s not cosmetic/insignificant?), but they have the Uberturbine wheels. Not sure if there’s anything else different from the LR but I would imagine there’s something with the wheels that would need testing. I’ll be honest I don’t know the ins and outs of the cars, just talking as a quality manager.

Let's see... different rear motor, different brakes, different wheels, slightly lower suspension, small rear lip spoiler, different headlights (at the moment). Probably other smaller things.
 
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Let's see... different rear motor, different brakes, different wheels, slightly lower suspension, small rear lip spoiler, different headlights (at the moment). Probably other smaller things.
Yeah, I’m not in the automotive industry, but I imagine most of those would need a process validation or whatever they call it in the automotive industry.
 
I agree. It really doesn't. Where's the line? Is it population based? Driving distance based? Order volume? My DC is roughly the same distance from Austin and Fremont, depending on how you choose to measure.
The line is wherever Musk's bean counters say it is. If it involves shipping costs, as he said it would, it is probably geographic. The Rockies makes a nice dividing line. Considering the number of orders from CA, that would probably equalize volume as well, if you don't count those 12 cars going to Oklahoma.

With the current demand, volume is going to be intense irrespective of location.

However,
Breaking
My son just put $2k down on a Kia EV6 crossover SUV with a 240-mile range which, with the $7500 rebate (end of the year, of course), will be $28,800 out the door including tax and license.

There was a 2018 Model 3 sitting on the same lot with 60k miles on it, selling for $66,000. The salesperson tried sliding the card in the door panel gap to open it. Hee....hee.

Tesla needs to be looking into the rearview mirror. This party isn't going to last forever.
 

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The line is wherever Musk's bean counters say it is. If it involves shipping costs, as he said it would, it is probably geographic. The Rockies makes a nice dividing line. Considering the number of orders from CA, that would probably equalize volume as well, if you don't count those 12 cars going to Oklahoma.

With the current demand, volume is going to be intense irrespective of location.

However,
Breaking
My son just put $2k down on a Kia EV6 crossover SUV with a 240 mile range which, with the $7500 rebate (end of year, of course) will be $28,800 out the door including tax and license.

There was a 2018 Model 3 sitting on the same lot with 60k miles on it, selling for $66,000. The salesperson tried sliding the card in the door panel gap to open it. Hee....hee.

Tesla needs to be looking into the rear view mirror. This party isn't going to last forever.
Distance x Volume or something like that.

Tesla's mission statement starts with: "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy." I suspect that they are sincere and short term profits are a secondary goal that feeds the first. It really isn't about world domination.

As long as they have more orders than they can fill with great margins I don't think they are going to worry about competition from other manufacturers in new niches. Could be wrong, but...
 
I was going on the March EDD on the order page. In a couple days we are in February and March comes next. (and still no production from Austin BTW, all you Youtube hype beasts!) Not compensating for any built in lying on the configuration page, That translates to “you order now, and get your car in 4-8 weeks.” Or, essentially “we are building them at the current rate of order or close to it.” I wasn’t parsing individual orders to see who had 7-seat or whatever.. Sorry for the lack of precision. It’s still one heck of a lot closer to no wait than MYLR orders which now show as late as December 2022
According to Teslarati on Oct 5, 2021,
Tesla’s Model Y Performance variant, which is the fastest available configuration of the all-electric crossover, is nearly sold out for 2021.

The online configuration studio has been stating Feb 21 - Mar 21 for the YP, at least since November.

I'd be interested to know if anyone on the forum knows of even any MYPs delivered after the end of the year??

The online configuration studio currently reads August 2022 for the MYLR.
 
Distance x Volume or something like that.

Tesla's mission statement starts with: "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy." I suspect that they are sincere and short term profits are a secondary goal that feeds the first. It really isn't about world domination.

As long as they have more orders than they can fill with great margins I don't think they are going to worry about competition from other manufacturers in new niches. Could be wrong, but...
If they were genuinely interested to maximally accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, they'd be building a $25,000 car.
Most companies start out with lofty ideals and once the bean counters come in, those goals seem to be modified somewhat (fade). Why do they introduce the more expensive models first? Bean counters lobbying for the stockholders. If the extreme demand allows them to keep selling more expensive cars for a greater profit for the stockholders, there is little motivation to use limited natural resources and chips to make a cheaper car with a smaller profit margin. Guess what bean counters win. Own a Tesla and TSLA stock for a WIN-WIN.
 
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If they were genuinely interested to maximally accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, they'd be building a $25,000 car.
Most companies start out with lofty ideals and once the bean counters come in, those goals seem to be modified somewhat (fade). Why do they introduce the more expensive models first? Bean counters lobbying for the stockholders. If the extreme demand allows them to keep selling more expensive cars for a greater profit for the stockholders, there is little motivation to use limited natural resources and chips to make a cheaper car with a smaller profit margin. Guess what bean counters win. Own a Tesla and TSLA stock for a WIN-WIN.
It's much easier for a wealthy person to be a first adopter than it is for someone who will be in the market for a $25,000 car. What is a fun or luxury purchase for a wealthy individual is a fraught years-long commitment for someone who is not. Thus, it only makes sense for companies who are attempting to prove a new technology start with people who have both enthusiasm and disposable income to invest in it. It's not the bean counters, it's simply how demand works. If you were trying to replace your 20 year-old car with something, and $25,000 is already on the edge of your budget, are you going to risk your job/school attendance/other obligations on untested cool technology, or are you going to get the boring, reliable budget vehicle from a legacy manufacturer with a service center in your town already? Lofty ideals are well and good, but you are not helping the world transition to sustainable energy by cratering your company in an attempt to mass produce a $25,000 car on your first go-around.
 
If they were genuinely interested to maximally accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, they'd be building a $25,000 car.
Most companies start out with lofty ideals and once the bean counters come in, those goals seem to be modified somewhat (fade). Why do they introduce the more expensive models first? Bean counters lobbying for the stockholders. If the extreme demand allows them to keep selling more expensive cars for a greater profit for the stockholders, there is little motivation to use limited natural resources and chips to make a cheaper car with a smaller profit margin. Guess what bean counters win. Own a Tesla and TSLA stock for a WIN-WIN.
Gotta first stay in business if you wish to save the world. So sell at the highest price point possible for the early adopters. That's the business model everyone has gone to.
A $25K vehicle in today's world has never been profitable for any manufacturer; they've always been loss leaders for political (ie CAFE) or market share reasons.
 
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