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500 mile range? LOL

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Sell “a ton” is also a moving goal post. Goldman Sachs is estimating 50k in 2024 which is just shy of what Rivian will sell this year. Hardly a “ton”.
Rivian has been at it how long? And they finally produced 50k trucks and SUVs per year? Are you saying Rivian production will keep pace with the CT's? I'm listening carefully for your response because I'm thinking about dumping all my Rivian stock. It's been a dog.
 
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Do you tow 10,000 lbs daily? This is like suggesting Tesla will deny warranty claims for people who drive at 80mph every day vs those who only drive at 40mph. If they would deny claims for towing, they wouldn’t support towing. And they would limit the rate of discharge to protect the battery that way.
The battery pack is to small for towing. Every truck that tows daily will need the battery replaced about every three years. I base that based on cars that were designed with less then 150 mile range, battery can’t handle it.
As far as executing your order, you should ask for a refund now. You won’t be able to hold until the 500 mile version comes out. When your place comes up, you will have to convert or cancel.
I probably have three years till my order comes up. I will deal with it then.
As far as a version with 500 mile primary battery, it would need to have 60-70% more capacity than the current one due to the increased weight so it won’t be just 50% more than the current one. There isn’t physical space for that much battery under the bed without making the truck taller/wider/longer. Thus the only way they can get this without a completely redesigned truck is with a 50% increase in energy density with the current cell format and even the most optimistic 4680 predictions will only unlock maybe 20% more. That means 340 becomes 408.
I’m sure tesla has the space. It was to be designed around the battery pack. Can’t wait till sandy monroe cuts one up. He might crash the internet when he releases his videos, lol.
 
I’m sure tesla has the space. It was to be designed around the battery pack.
It was “designed around” 4680 energy density assumptions that have thus far proven to be wildly optimistic, even for Lord Elon.

I seriously doubt there’s room in this thing to stuff 200+ kwh of cells at existing energy density the way GM did with that ridiculous Hummer.
 
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It was “designed around” 4680 energy density assumptions that have thus far proven to be wildly optimistic, even for Lord Elon.

I seriously doubt there’s room in this thing to stuff 200+ kwh of cells at existing energy density the way GM did with that ridiculous Hummer.
Definitely would want to be an “early adopter” of this abomination. I suspect there will be many re re re re refreshed Cybertrucks. Using history as a guide, Tesla always screws early adopters.
 
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There will always be revisions. Maybe they took it out so they can monetize an accessory? Who knows, Elon and Tesla always fall way short when it comes to information and/or communication to customers.

Well, Neither Elon nor Tesla said ANYTHING at all about future information to its customers during the CT launch.

Maybe - we taught them a lesson. <---sarcasm run wild.
 
so does the Hummer EV and Rivian ... this "they will sell all vehicles they make" take is moronic. All depends how low production volume is. Will Tesla sell every CT they make at $80k+ when the production is 50k next year as predicted by Wall Street? Sure. absolutely. Could they sell 200k CTs at $80k+ ... no way.
This "they will sell all vehicles they make take is moronic" is moronic.

First, EV truck is a niche product, second Cybertruck is a niche of that niche, third reading between the lines of Tesla statements about CT it seems that the steel body manufacturing will be very hard to scale efficiently, fourth the cost of making the "exoskeleton" fit for purpose probably means that the CT is not particularly profitable, fifth battery supply is still a factor and CT batteries could be going in to more profitable products.

So, difficult to scale, not worth the effort anyway, so low volume production at high prices to a willing but limited fanbase happy to wait.

It is a fun product but what the market will buy in huge volume is a cheaper practical EV and BYD aren't making Cybertrucks.
 
The battery pack is to small for towing. Every truck that tows daily will need the battery replaced about every three years. I base that based on cars that were designed with less then 150 mile range, battery can’t handle it.

I probably have three years till my order comes up. I will deal with it then.

I’m sure tesla has the space. It was to be designed around the battery pack. Can’t wait till sandy monroe cuts one up. He might crash the internet when he releases his videos, lol.
I doubt many of these would be used daily for towing as you are suggesting. What about the battery cant handle daily use? What are these cars with least than 150 miles of range? Nissan leaf? They all needed battery replacement after 3 years?

You think they’d be doing the ridiculous in bed battery expansion pack if there was space in the current pack to add more cells? They aren’t going to redesign this. They had 4 years and decided a small truck that will fit in a garage was more important than 500 mile range. They understand 95% of these are never going to tow more than a U-Haul utility trailer for yard work or moving. You can see based on the design decisions they made. If you don’t think these were conscious decisions based on real world usage of similar ice trucks they you are underestimating teslas intelligence. Sure it can tow more but these are not meant to be work trucks that are driven hard daily. They are meant to look pretty with your Home Depot and Costco purchases in the bed.
 
Sell “a ton” is also a moving goal post. Goldman Sachs is estimating 50k in 2024 which is just shy of what Rivian will sell this year. Hardly a “ton”.
I would be very surprised if they could build 50k in 2024. Look at the model Y ramp in Austin and that was an already established assembly line in Fremont.
GS must have new info on 4680 supply because it was calculated that current production was supply for 600 CT per week. I believe those calls were with 100kwh battery so now you can figure 30% less. That’s 25,000 per year.

Rivian has been at it how long? And they finally produced 50k trucks and SUVs per year? Are you saying Rivian production will keep pace with the CT's? I'm listening carefully for your response because I'm thinking about dumping all my Rivian stock. It's been a dog.
Looking for stock advice on a public forum?

This "they will sell all vehicles they make take is moronic" is moronic.

First, EV truck is a niche product, second Cybertruck is a niche of that niche, third reading between the lines of Tesla statements about CT it seems that the steel body manufacturing will be very hard to scale efficiently, fourth the cost of making the "exoskeleton" fit for purpose probably means that the CT is not particularly profitable, fifth battery supply is still a factor and CT batteries could be going in to more profitable products.

So, difficult to scale, not worth the effort anyway, so low volume production at high prices to a willing but limited fanbase happy to wait.

It is a fun product but what the market will buy in huge volume is a cheaper practical EV and BYD aren't making Cybertrucks.
Cybertruck batteries 4680 are not in any other product now that the 4680 MY isn’t being sold. Maybe they could shift them to energy storage applications but then they’d be shipping them to CA from TX. Tesla is all in on TX being 4680 and CT headquarters for years to come.
 
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It was “designed around” 4680 energy density assumptions that have thus far proven to be wildly optimistic, even for Lord Elon.

I seriously doubt there’s room in this thing to stuff 200+ kwh of cells at existing energy density the way GM did with that ridiculous Hummer.
Let's also not forget that they made the deliberate choice to shorten the truck to "fit it in a regular garage". So they lost at least 7 inches of potential battery space off the reveal version. This final version is just slightly longer than my 2002 Yukon XL and that just barely fit in the garage of my previous house, so they are probably right about that. It's a trade off - appeal to the people who feel putting it in a garage is more important, or people who need the longer range for towing? Personally I wanted both because I wanted to replace my Yukon (which I am only keeping around for towing and holding long stuff) and I now have a garage long enough to handle the longest pickups. I hate keeping cars outside, because no matter how well they're made, they age faster when constantly subjected to the weather/debris off trees/the odd rampant squirrel... (yes, I've paid for the repairs from two examples of that!)

At any rate, they made the engineering/marketing call on that and we'll see what happens.
 
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I wonder how much room for improvement there is for base range that isn't stored in the bed.

Taking some dumb estimations. I thought it might be good to compare to the Model S.

The Model S is 78" wide and has a wheelbase of 116.5" and could fit a 100kwh battery in 2018 or so. The Cybertruck is I believe 80" wide with a wheelbase of 149.9". On top of that a single layer 4680 pack should have 23% more volume than 1865 packs due to their height. Width difference is very small but if you take (149.9/116.5) x (80/65) that gives you 58% more volume for your battery. ie a ~160 kwh battery with energy densities in the 4680 equal to 2018 2170s as opposed to a 123 kwh.

I would assume the BMS is about the same size giving a slight advantage to the Cybertruck. If i remember correctly they also touted the structural battery pack as providing more room for batteries. On the flipside the much larger wheel wells and 4-wheel steering may hinder the room for the pack?

Is this reasonable? Am I missing something? Looking forward to Sandy Munroe's teardown but I heard him sprout the average mileage driven argument which has nothing to do with my use case that I was hoping for.

Fortunately for me I assumed for a while they were not coming out with the 500-mile Cybertruck at release and I don't want to replace my current vehicle for 2 years or so. I guess the range extender worried me that those improvements are not feasible.