90D with 5 seats confirmed for nearly 2 months. What's going on?

[esk8mw]

Well, he "knows" us, and I certainly love using Auto Pilot on my X, and my wife would love to trade ours in to get one with newer AP hardware (not gonna happen - the first X is a stretch, we can't take the depreciation + sales tax + full wrap hit to trade it in; even a double dip on the tax credit would only cover one of the above).

That said, do you have data that says he is clearly in the minority? What I see is one anecdote, followed by another anecdote, neither with actual statistical data. I know a lot of people that are excite about autonomy. I know a lot of people that are scared of it. I know a lot of people that think it's stupid, and why wouldn't you want to drive your own car. I have no idea how the sizes of those groups compare to each other. It's also interesting that different social circles of mine tend to clump into one of those groups. So just looking at "neighbors" gives a completely different picture than "coworkers".

I don't have hard stats for you, but just look at the take rate on AP as an option since it's been available. Again, I don't have the numbers but I'd be shocked if it's under 90%. I expect the same with AP2.

As for the rest of the public, their opinion doesn't really count right now as they are not informed. The only data point that matters for me: once you show a validated, fully autonomous car that has been proven to be 5x (or some other multiple) safer than manual driving, will that be of interest to them at that time? I suspect that demand for this product is incalculable. For the rest of people who can't imagine any use for this - the car will still be able to be operated manually at any time. The availability of a feature they don't want to use for whatever reason shouldn't hinder the purchasing decision. Hell, I bet many such people will buy the option anyway to help with resale value because I am sure that they will understand that they are in the clear minority.

 

[ccutrer]

I don't have hard stats for you, but just look at the take rate on AP as an option since it's been available. Again, I don't have the numbers but I'd be shocked if it's under 90%. I expect the same with AP2.

As for the rest of the public, their opinion doesn't really count right now as they are not informed. The only data point that matters for me: once you show a validated, fully autonomous car that has been proven to be 5x (or some other multiple) safer than manual driving, will that be of interest to them at that time? I suspect that demand for this product is incalculable. For the rest of people who can't imagine any use for this - the car will still be able to be operated manually at any time. The availability of a feature they don't want to use for whatever reason shouldn't hinder the purchasing decision. Hell, I bet many such people will buy the option anyway to help with resale value because I am sure that they will understand that they are in the clear minority.

Oh, I agree, it seems to be the case that the AP take rate is very high for current buyers. And it likely is - it seemed to me that the take rate in the Tech Package in older Model S was very high, and I was probably right cause they ended up just making it standard. Oh, and the people I know that hate Autopilot? Many of them are on this very forum, and are Tesla owners. I have no idea how big this sample size really is, or how skewed it is.

As for the rest of the public, their opinion does count, very much so. Especially with regards to autonomy and the legal requirements for it. If the uninformed public thinks autonomy is stupid, it may never become legal. It doesn't matter if they are uninformed. And telling someone that they are uninformed is not the greatest way to bring them around to being better informed .

I just don't like to project my own worldview on others, or lie to myself that without having found actual data, that my own perceptions are clearly correct.

 

[esk8mw]

Oh, I agree, it seems to be the case that the AP take rate is very high for current buyers. And it likely is - it seemed to me that the take rate in the Tech Package in older Model S was very high, and I was probably right cause they ended up just making it standard. Oh, and the people I know that hate Autopilot? Many of them are on this very forum, and are Tesla owners. I have no idea how big this sample size really is, or how skewed it is.

As for the rest of the public, their opinion does count, very much so. Especially with regards to autonomy and the legal requirements for it. If the uninformed public thinks autonomy is stupid, it may never become legal. It doesn't matter if they are uninformed. And telling someone that they are uninformed is not the greatest way to bring them around to being better informed .

I just don't like to project my own worldview on others, or lie to myself that without having found actual data, that my own perceptions are clearly correct.

You are twisting my words beyond all recognition and you also made a few logical fallacies there.

- Every argument isn't required to be backed by hard data, particularly when that data is not obtainable.
- It does not follow that if someone dislikes AP1 that they will also dislike a fully functional AP2. Most hate it because it nags too much or its too inaccurate/unsafe or if lulls people into a false sense of security--all of which is fixed in my (assumed) fully functional AP2 car. Very few of the AP hate arguments begin and end with "I want to be in control of my own car." If that was the only argument, fine - don't use it; it's optional.
- No, the public's opinion does not matter for the limited purposes of my argument - that once shown a fully functioning, safer AP2 car, it will be of interest to a lot of people. They are rightfully skeptical of claims that this "sci-fi" technology isn't far off and are inundated with negative AP articles on a daily basis. Once the fears are dispelled, they will be interested - that's my entire argument. You instead chose to construct a strawman about the public's perception being necessary for regulatory reasons and burnt it down to the ground. That's nice, but has nothing to do with my argument about the desirability of a fully functional AP2 car.
- The rest of your comments are needlessly inflammatory. I don't recall projecting my worldview on others; I could care less if someone decides not to tick the AP option box. All I said was that demand would be high and my opinion is that more people will want the AP2 option than not. Hardly controversial. I'm "lying to myself" because Tesla doesn't publish stats on option take rates and data cannot be gathered? You've gone quite a bit too far with that one.

 

[Kincaid]

Here's an informative article from Automotive News on the extent to which robots driving vehicles is currently accepted:

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...vested-in-driverless-cars-that-americans-dont

The demographics of the equation are interesting. Matters will likely escalate very quickly once cars driven primarily by software start bumping into people and other cars. Lawsuits and risk aversion will quickly put the brakes on driverless technology. It's no protection from liability for car manufacturers to include the phrase "remember to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention at all times" in the directions. The driver as well as the manufacturer will share liability, and in many cases the driver will hold the manufacturer liable.

Folks who live in rural areas may indeed have more confidence in AP than city dwellers. I live about 20 miles from Tesla's Fremont factory, 5 miles from Google, and 5 miles from Apple. I'd say half the folks who live within 2 blocks of me own a Tesla. None of them use AP. The only AP use around here comes in the form of Google's minivans. There was a larger company than Google testing driverless vehicle technology around here, and one with considerably greater expertise in software development, but they decided not to go down that road.

Here's another anecdote: the technology for driverless golf carts is impeccable, the risk infinitesimal, and absolutely no one who plays golf would ever want a golf cart driven by AP. The line of attorneys in Silicon Valley waiting to litigate liability claims against car manufacturers whose software provides more than a very limited measure of vehicle control assistance is longer than the line of attorneys in Silicon Valley litigating patent claims. Folks in the "midwest" or Utah may enjoy the fun of AP, and headed down a straight uncrowded highway using AP must be fun, but unless it works flawlessly in the type of communities whose work force actually manufactures the hardware and develops the software, it's nothing more than an intellectual challenge, or as one unnamed company refers to it: a gimmick.

Heck, the best idea of all was that we would all soon be abandoning road vehicles, and be getting around in personal flying vehicles. Reality bumped that idea right out of the sky as well.

 

[ccutrer]

- Every argument isn't required to be backed by hard data, particularly when that data is not obtainable.

It's not much of an argument without hard data, or being self evident. I'm simply trying to point out there is no hard data, and though I do share the same viewpoint, I'm hesitant to declare it as self-evident.

- It does not follow that if someone dislikes AP1 that they will also dislike a fully functional AP2. Most hate it because it nags too much or its too inaccurate/unsafe or if lulls people into a false sense of security--all of which is fixed in my (assumed) fully functional AP2 car. Very few of the AP hate arguments begin and end with "I want to be in control of my own car." If that was the only argument, fine - don't use it; it's optional.

A very good point. I know at least some of the AP non-proponents would agree, but I'm pretty sure some would not. I haven't asked very many that question directly. For example, earlier today I would have thought @Kincaid was in the "I -- and everyone I know -- just want to drive my own car" camp, but given his above post, it sounds like there may be an asterisk of "unless I can completely trust AP"

- No, the public's opinion does not matter for the limited purposes of my argument - that once shown a fully functioning, safer AP2 car, it will be of interest to a lot of people. They are rightfully skeptical of claims that this "sci-fi" technology isn't far off and are inundated with negative AP articles on a daily basis. Once the fears are dispelled, they will be interested - that's my entire argument. You instead chose to construct a strawman about the public's perception being necessary for regulatory reasons and burnt it down to the ground. That's nice, but has nothing to do with my argument about the desirability of a fully functional AP2 car.

Dead horse. I claim wild speculation, you seem content to assume the end result is obvious and sure.

- The rest of your comments are needlessly inflammatory. I don't recall projecting my worldview on others; I could care less if someone decides not to tick the AP option box. All I said was that demand would be high and my opinion is that more people will want the AP2 option than not. Hardly controversial. I'm "lying to myself" because Tesla doesn't publish stats on option take rates and data cannot be gathered? You've gone quite a bit too far with that one.

Ok, not exactly directly projecting your view onto others, but more assuming your viewpoint. You keep talking in near-absolutes, I'm simply trying to introduce a small amount of doubt so that others will consider a wider viewpoint. It's possible I'm manufacturing doubt where none exists, but @Kincaid's article show that not to be the case.

 

[EVger]

Good news! I spoke with two Tesla stores today. Both informed me that the MX 5-seater will go into production at the end of November. If anyone gets a reliable description or photos of the 5-seater rear-floor configuration, pls keep us informed. (I was also told that the 100kWh battery continues to be only available on the performance version.)

 

[Atlantis]

Here's an informative article from Automotive News on the extent to which robots driving vehicles is currently accepted:

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...vested-in-driverless-cars-that-americans-dont

The demographics of the equation are interesting. Matters will likely escalate very quickly once cars driven primarily by software start bumping into people and other cars. Lawsuits and risk aversion will quickly put the brakes on driverless technology. It's no protection from liability for car manufacturers to include the phrase "remember to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention at all times" in the directions. The driver as well as the manufacturer will share liability, and in many cases the driver will hold the manufacturer liable.

Folks who live in rural areas may indeed have more confidence in AP than city dwellers. I live about 20 miles from Tesla's Fremont factory, 5 miles from Google, and 5 miles from Apple. I'd say half the folks who live within 2 blocks of me own a Tesla. None of them use AP. The only AP use around here comes in the form of Google's minivans. There was a larger company than Google testing driverless vehicle technology around here, and one with considerably greater expertise in software development, but they decided not to go down that road.

Here's another anecdote: the technology for driverless golf carts is impeccable, the risk infinitesimal, and absolutely no one who plays golf would ever want a golf cart driven by AP. The line of attorneys in Silicon Valley waiting to litigate liability claims against car manufacturers whose software provides more than a very limited measure of vehicle control assistance is longer than the line of attorneys in Silicon Valley litigating patent claims. Folks in the "midwest" or Utah may enjoy the fun of AP, and headed down a straight uncrowded highway using AP must be fun, but unless it works flawlessly in the type of communities whose work force actually manufactures the hardware and develops the software, it's nothing more than an intellectual challenge, or as one unnamed company refers to it: a gimmick.

Heck, the best idea of all was that we would all soon be abandoning road vehicles, and be getting around in personal flying vehicles. Reality bumped that idea right out of the sky as well.

In the article you cited there is this quote:
Trust “is a big issue that will go away as people become more experienced with the technology,” said Johanna Zmud, senior research scientist with the Texas A&M institute.

All the data and all the neighbours and coworker, friends opinions are only a picture of now. As time will pass, more and more people will be informed, curious and...have envy of their friends, coworker, neighbours new car features. Is that as humans are.
In the other hand, age, wealth class and culture will have an impact as, for example, the older ones will be more reluctant, as they are for electric cars, the younger ones not so much (and other studies showed that these last ones are now far less interested in possessing cars and more in using car services, which was not the case for older ones, maybe twenty or forty years ago when they had the same age (having a car, before, was a mark in the growing process of a person and his "pass" to enter in an independent, adult and economic world).
So, like regular cell phones that were very good for every body before smart-phones like the I-phone appears, non autonomous cars will rapidly be out the sight of the average people, not to speak about the resale value point which is a very important point in the moment of deciding car options. This exact same thing will happen to ICE cars which resale value will fall at deep in the next decade.

 

[jsollender]

To those who hijacked this thread can I ask you to read the title of this thread and take non-related chat somewhere else?

 

[Kincaid]

Alas, the topic of conversation wandered off from the world of 5 seats into the world of AutoPilot, in much the same way some non believers wandered off from the pure world of 5 seats into the netherworld of 6 seats. We humans are a fickle group, always changing preferences as well as topics. Despite the detours, and AutoPilot was unable to steer clear of them, I am getting daily emails relating to the impending production of my 5 seat Model X. Patience rewarded. I would say that I am a happy camper, except for the fact that I stick to the Four Seasons (strictly for the benefits of their loyalty program of course).

 

[beths11]

To those who hijacked this thread can I ask you to read the title of this thread and take non-related chat somewhere else?

Thank you. I had been contemplating posting the same request.

 

[Kincaid]

For those of you also waiting four the purity of your 5 seater, you also received a promotional email from Tesla yesterday relating to the "Enhanced AutoPilot" and "Full Self-Driving Capability" upgrade offers, with the caution that if you did not get them now, they would each cost $1,000.00 more if ordered after delivery. Then Tesla wisely added this caveat:

"Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via an over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval."

The phrase "subject to regulatory approval" is both a note of caution and an introduction to reality. As with the arrival of 5 seats, regulatory approval will also be a test of patience, and because it will significantly vary by geographic and political jurisdiction, it will be nasty and contentious dispute. Credit is due to Tesla for breaking new ground, but gaining acceptance from insurance companies, and the much loved bureaucracy of the DMV is a long and winding road. I have lived in NY, Florida, California, Hawaii, and Vermont: a wide range of climates and population densities. I am confidant none of those states will approve the use of Enhanced AutoPilot and Full Self-Driving Capability as currently envisioned by Tesla. The good news for those enamored with advanced AutoPilot features is that, like 5 seat Model X's, Tesla will keep trying until they get it right. That will take many years, and many compromises with insurance companies and state by state DMV rules and regulations.

 

[beths11]

For those of you also waiting four the purity of your 5 seater, you also received a promotional email from Tesla yesterday relating to the "Enhanced AutoPilot" and "Full Self-Driving Capability" upgrade offers, with the caution that if you did not get them now, they would each cost $1,000.00 more if ordered after delivery. Then Tesla wisely added this caveat:

"Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via an over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval."

The phrase "subject to regulatory approval" is both a note of caution and an introduction to reality. As with the arrival of 5 seats, regulatory approval will also be a test of patience, and because it will significantly vary by geographic and political jurisdiction, it will be nasty and contentious dispute. Credit is due to Tesla for breaking new ground, but gaining acceptance from insurance companies, and the much loved bureaucracy of the DMV is a long and winding road. I have lived in NY, Florida, California, Hawaii, and Vermont: a wide range of climates and population densities. I am confidant none of those states will approve the use of Enhanced AutoPilot and Full Self-Driving Capability as currently envisioned by Tesla. The good news for those enamored with advanced AutoPilot features is that, like 5 seat Model X's, Tesla will keep trying until they get it right. That will take many years, and many compromises with insurance companies and state by state DMV rules and regulations.

@Kincaid how could you hijack this thread again???? Here is a link to the appropriate thread for all things AP1 to EAP AP 2.0 on submitted orders

 

[Kincaid]

@Kincaid how could you hijack this thread again???? Here is a link to the appropriate thread for all things AP1 to EAP AP 2.0 on submitted orders

You are absolutely right! I apologize. I got sucked in to the siren call of AP and will not do it again!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

As for the rest of the public, their opinion does count, very much so. Especially with regards to autonomy and the legal requirements for it. If the uninformed public thinks autonomy is stupid, it may never become legal. It doesn't matter if they are uninformed. And telling someone that they are uninformed is not the greatest way to bring them around to being better informed .

Well, they matter, but based on AP so far, I don't think that we have to worry about it. It's worth noting that government reactions to AP have been positive and there really hasn't been any grandstanding on the issue.

There are so many stakeholders who want autonomy, including government. As soon as there's clear improvement over meatsacks in statistics it'll be allowed.

 

[beths11]

Well, they matter, but based on AP so far, I don't think that we have to worry about it. It's worth noting that government reactions to AP have been positive and there really hasn't been any grandstanding on the issue.

There are so many stakeholders who want autonomy, including government. As soon as there's clear improvement over meatsacks in statistics it'll be allowed.

Please take you AP discussion to: AP 2.0 on submitted orders

 

[jsollender]

For y'alls sake I was kinda hoping the announcement last week was going to be a reveal of the 5 -seat variant plus the new folding seats! Imagine the uproar that would have caused. Instead the uproar are crocodile tears of current owners over next gen AP. I couldn't be happier with my 3 month old X with its warts and rust!

 

[Kincaid]

For y'alls sake I was kinda hoping the announcement last week was going to be a reveal of the 5 -seat variant plus the new folding seats! Imagine the uproar that would have caused. Instead the uproar are crocodile tears of current owners over next gen AP. I couldn't be happier with my 3 month old X with its warts and rust!

Absolutely all of the practical, reasonable, thoughtful folks (turncoat traitors) who switched from their 5 seat preferences to 6 seats report they are happy and content. (Rust, already???) I admire their, and your, flexibility. Please report back with an objective comparative assessment when the 5 seat version arrives. I will be interested to find out whether any 5 to 6 or 7 converters have second thoughts. I'm grasping at straws here, trying to find justification for cooling my 5 seat heels for so long. My wife has actually reached the point where she plans to sell her 2014 Model S and get the 2017 version. The horror of her soon to be tooling around in her second Tesla while I'm still waiting for my first is an amusing component of our family life. But once the 5 seat version of the Model X is released, everyone will be amazed, envious, and laudatory. Praising my extraordinary skills at being patient. Right? Right?

 

[beths11]

Absolutely all of the practical, reasonable, thoughtful folks (turncoat traitors) who switched from their 5 seat preferences to 6 seats report they are happy and content. (Rust, already???) I admire their, and your, flexibility. Please report back with an objective comparative assessment when the 5 seat version arrives. I will be interested to find out whether any 5 to 6 or 7 converters have second thoughts. I'm grasping at straws here, trying to find justification for cooling my 5 seat heels for so long. My wife has actually reached the point where she plans to sell her 2014 Model S and get the 2017 version. The horror of her soon to be tooling around in her second Tesla while I'm still waiting for my first is an amusing component of our family life. But once the 5 seat version of the Model X is released, everyone will be amazed, envious, and laudatory. Praising my extraordinary skills at being patient. Right? Right?

It seems as if our patience will provide us with much more than the five seats we desired. I am thrilled to be getting the new hardware and will most likely upgrade to EAP.

 

[F4B8TS]

Hey All,

I'm a lurker with an outstanding 5-seat order since February 2016. I noticed that My Tesla page now has a VIN assigned. However, according to the vin decoder, it looks like it's a 6-seater. I asked my DS and he claims that (1) it's a 5-seater and (2) he doesn't know enough about VINs.

The first 6 characters are: 5YJXCA

According to the decoder, the 6th character indicates the restraint system. A = Manual Type 2 Seat Belts (Front Row, Center Row*3, Third Row*2).

I've contacted NA sales but so far, no one has replied. I'm under the impression from teslatap.com that the 6th character should be 'C'.

So, fellow 5-seaters with VINs ... what is the 6th character in your VIN?

Thanks.

F4B8TS

 

[Terran]

I have a 5 seat, X60D scheduled for Dec. delivery.

My first 6 characters are: 5YJXCD