Certainly not to impugn the potential effect of your post, but I would incline to the last as well. I think TSLA is much over valued right now, but for good reason as many have concluded it will succeed in some measure (great or small) , and many have concluded it may in fact not fail after all. Thanks for updating that situation
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Advanced TSLA Options Trading
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Certainly not to impugn the potential effect of your post, but I would incline to the last as well. I think TSLA is much over valued right now, but for good reason as many have concluded it will succeed in some measure (great or small) , and many have concluded it may in fact not fail after all. Thanks for updating that situation
ShortSlaver
Member
I'm edging towards the camp of I don't think it will fall far from where it's currently at. It appears pricy to be sure, but some of this may be the rapid rise. I feel like with the latest stock offering and paying off their loan they've given themselves many more times the chance of survival and actually becoming a significant player. The public is almost relieved a company like this has finally come along.
Lots of future priced in, but just too much good news (and still coming) to seriously drive the price steeply downwards for awhile. (Unless of course the market explodes)
If they announce plans to hire another shift of workers and expect Model S output to increase dramatically (the demand for this vehicle has high before - it has to be out of this world now) or they announce a partnership with Google or something, watch out.
I should add I've taken a flyer on some weekly calls for next week that felt more like a discount lately.
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Im in that camp ShortSlaver. I recently came over from thinking it will settle back down to "normal" levels. Oddly to me is the DOE payoff seemed to be the biggest announcement so far when it comes to people learning about TSLA. I ask people all day long in my day job if they know of TSLA and there seemed to be a lot of people who had never heard of Tesla before until they had heard they paid off their loan. I think the future dominance of Tesla and their insane demand levels currently with no real advertising coupled with the institutional investors that were oversubscribed to the last offering all point to a price that is more likely to go up than down.
I had sold all of my options and was only holding stocks but picked up some various jun and july options when the stock was around 88-92 so of course I am rooting for it to keep skyrocketing
I had sold all of my options and was only holding stocks but picked up some various jun and july options when the stock was around 88-92 so of course I am rooting for it to keep skyrocketing
With the recent declines due to what I believe is inaccurate information from Autodata, has anyone thought about new option plays for TSLA right now?
For instance, the Dec $85 Puts pay $15.45 (traded in the $16s earlier today), which is a 33% annualized return or an under $70 purchase price.
Anybody got anything else? I've got profits from my previous option trades looking for the next great thing.
For instance, the Dec $85 Puts pay $15.45 (traded in the $16s earlier today), which is a 33% annualized return or an under $70 purchase price.
Anybody got anything else? I've got profits from my previous option trades looking for the next great thing.
^^^
I personally hate selling naked puts on any stock where the expiration is after an earnings event. If I do (I don't do it much anymore), I close it out before the earnings report, regardless of whether it's a loss or profit.
There's can be a lot of event risk due to an earnings report and conference call.
Between now and December, there can be a lot of negative news to bang down the stock. Or for all we know, the short squeeze could restart or tons of positive news could come out.
But hey, I'm just an options amateur.
I personally hate selling naked puts on any stock where the expiration is after an earnings event. If I do (I don't do it much anymore), I close it out before the earnings report, regardless of whether it's a loss or profit.
There's can be a lot of event risk due to an earnings report and conference call.
Between now and December, there can be a lot of negative news to bang down the stock. Or for all we know, the short squeeze could restart or tons of positive news could come out.
But hey, I'm just an options amateur.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Is anyone buying any Jan14 calls? They're still expensive but I don't want to miss out on any potential squeezes and January 14 is far enough out that I think the risk is a little lower.
I only own J14 and J15 calls right now. Looking to add to my positions this week depending on where the stock ends up each day. Premiums are extremely high but i don't believe they will end up moving lower for a long time. Only screw up i did is my J14's are at stupid prices like $165 and $170 while my J15 calls are $135's so i'd love to be able to add to the $135's. just waiting for the right entry.
I'm looking for a short-term play on today's shareholder's meeting, which I think will spike the stock back towards $100. Ideas?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I bought Weekly calls @ 100 and 105 strike yesterday with stock at 91-something. But you are probably looking for a more advanced strategy?
I got nothin more than DonPedro. A tight Bull spread on weeklies. Or same on something that expires just outside the June 20 so you could work it through that if no pop on the meeting. But I'm currently of the bear opinion on TSLA so that may be influencing that. I currently own Puts that are protecting my long stock position.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
September. $50 strike (cheaper). But keep in mind I won't let them run through expiration, ie don't expect that strike to ever be reached. I'll close them likely at earnings report which I expect to be a challenge. Something at a higher strike might offer better protection, I'm using them as a loss balance protection for about 1/2 my stock position
I'm expecting much higher than promised production (at least 6K cars), and somewhat higher than expected gross margin. Actual profits will still be lacking, but looking at VINs it seems Tesla is making about 500 cars a week and from everything I hear, whatever they make gets sold. And, people are buying cars off the showroom floor and driving them home a few days later!
If they do report 6K and GM progress ahead of schedule- that could be enough to hold the price imo. But those statistics appeal to the long players. I believe there is a lot of trend (dumb) money in TSLA right now- and they won't look through the significant drop (or even loss) in profit (from Q1). It's not about what you and I will do, and what they should do; it's about what they will do. I think Tesla crossed a bridge now and they are more traded on profit results that before (that's a lot of the new money that came in). I hope you're right- I'll be holding a long position through it of course- but not a full in as I think it may produce an opportunity I'd like to capture - and remember there's very little short covering support this time - we're in a new scenario
What makes you think there's a lot of trend/dumb money in TSLA right now? The last secondary was a bunch of institutions getting in at $92 and I wouldn't consider them trend/dumb money.
ShortSlaver
Member
I don't think they need to show a profit as nobody is expecting that. They need to beat estimates (still at a negative EPS), increase margin and have a positive guidance. I guess I can see your view that a loss, even as expected, would scare the trend money. But an earnings beat is still and earnings beat even if it is negative.
I'll be rooting for you to be right...
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No I wouldn't either; They weren't in until the stock tripled to $92 though (and that does really help create a $90 support level no doubt)- It's the money that followed the trend up that concerns me - we replaced shorts with trend money (most of the longs were in already). So we're without short covering support and increased trend money, a high valuation, and a pending Q2 report that will need deeper-than-headline-explaining. Let's put it this way- a lot of smart money never predicted we'd be at this level at this time. That tells me there's enough trend money in the will knee jerk sell on a reported Q2 loss, regardless of any other consideration. All that together causes a strategy to allow for downward volatility that I would like to capture if it comes about. Here's to hoping I'm wrong
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