I'm smarter than I look huh? WOOF!!
By lock in, do you mean the "extended warranty"?
There are three things to consider there,
1. Unlike service plans, I have 4 years to decide on the extended warranty, and 4 years of interest on $4k is atleast 25 cents, 12.5 cents after tax.
2. Tesla is the guarantor of that extended warranty. If Tesla files for bankruptcy (not unthinkable given the headwinds they may face), that warranty will be worthless - of course if that happens we have bigger issues anwyay. Even if it isn't a bankruptcy, the headwinds most likely means additional pressure on service centers to cut back on their excellent service.
3. In 4 years, while the price of that extended warranty will most likely be revised upwards, but Tesla may have a better 'repair' network, and may allow for third party extended warranties, probably pushing the price down - a counter balance force that most likely means the price won't be revised upwards significantly. Plus there will be a lot more 4 year old MS's by then.
8 years is a very long commitment for a car. And well, every car I have owned, I have never bought extended warranty on it. In the most likely event that the car is issue-free for the first 4 years, the probability of an issue arising in the last 4 years is low (not zero).
So .. long story short, I'm gonna risk it by delaying the extended warranty purchase. I may regret it, but for a 4K profit, vs. a 1K upwards price revision risk, the risk is justified. And most likely I will know at the 2 year mark whether or not this car will need the 4K expense or not.
One additional thing to consider .. If I buy 8 years of service now, and If I trade in the car in 3 years for another Model S, I will receive a pro-rated refund for the remaining visits. If I sell the car privately, the service plan transfers to the new owner.
The reality is, I will most probably never trade in my
blootiful to Tesla. Mostly because their trade in offers are so ridonkulously low .. ! So I have to assume the service plan is burnt money. Grr.. this decision is so hard!