All discussion of Lucid Motors

[Snerruc]

whats' the accepted wh/mile of a Model S? What's the accepted max charge rate of a Model S?

I was thinking off the cuff something like 333 wh/mile (3 miles per kWh) and 250KW.

Lucid claims 4.5 miles per kWh so that is a 1.5 multiplier if I didn't get the Model S wrong and 350KW vs 250KW is a 1.4 multiplier. Basically if the two multipliers together come up to near 2 my statement stands. If I was wrong with that summation do the math and tell me how much faster you think it would be charging based on the video and numbers given.

The statement in the video is concerning 300 miles range in 20 minutes so not to full charge and you can compare that to Model S behavior as well.

My Raven S is rated at 265 watt hours per mile. On a recent trip I averaged 276 running 75-80 on Autopilot. In 20-25 minutes the car would add 170-200 miles in 20-25 minutes even though the temp was 98-100.

 

[mejojo]

whats' the accepted wh/mile of a Model S?

I get about 290Wh/mi on '15 85D and about 260 Wh/mi on 2020 S

 

[keydiver]

whats' the accepted wh/mile of a Model S?

I believe the S100D works out to about 249 wh/mile, or just a hair over 4 miles per kWh. The performance model is not nearly as efficient at 287 wh/mile, or about 3.5 miles per kWh. The Model 3 LR AWD works out to about 233 wh/mile, or about 4.3 miles per kWh. I did notice that Lucid only claims that high efficiency if you take the 19" Aero wheel and tire package, not the standard 21" rims. It will be very interesting to see the real world range tests of the Lucid next year to see if they can really meet that 4.5 mile per kWh target.

 

[Nocturnal]

I believe the S100D works out to about 249 wh/mile, or just a hair over 4 miles per kWh. The performance model is not nearly as efficient at 287 wh/mile, or about 3.5 miles per kWh. The Model 3 LR AWD works out to about 233 wh/mile, or about 4.3 miles per kWh. I did notice that Lucid only claims that high efficiency if you take the 19" Aero wheel and tire package, not the standard 21" rims. It will be very interesting to see the real world range tests of the Lucid next year to see if they can really meet that 4.5 mile per kWh target.

My lifetime average for my P3 is 332.

 

[RobStark]

I won't disagree, but this was hashed out pretty well when Porsche was pimping the Taycan's 800v architecture. Sadly, I don't feel like searching for the relevant posts, but the short of it is that higher voltage is no panacea. Even if you don't get the technical side: if it were, Tesla would've done it a long time ago.

Even their claim of higher efficiency I don't think will hold up based on the same reasoning: if it were that easy* then Tesla would already have done it. If it were a legacy manufacturer I'd just figure they were lying about the efficiency, but I'll give Lucid the benefit of the doubt and suggest they do have higher efficiency. The question then becomes: what did they give up? In engineering there's a saying that goes something like this: "good, fast or cheap, pick two." In this case I'd hazard that it broke down to "efficient, cheap, reliable" and they gave up on cheap and compromised on reliable whereas Tesla went for reliable and compromised on efficient and cheap. And if anyone can hone all three it will be the company that has the expertise and experience. Lucid may get there, but they simply lack the practical experience and going from "good design" to "good manufacturing" is not easy.

* yeah, I get that Lucid has very competent engineers who worked really hard on their drive train. Tesla has those as well.

Looking at Lucid prices I would guess Lucid gave up "cheap" not efficient or reliable.

They are selling $95k-$169k vehicles right now.

 

[humbaba]

Looking at Lucid prices I would guess Lucid gave up "cheap" not efficient or reliable.

They are selling $95k-$169k vehicles right now.

yes, exactly what I said:

they gave up on cheap and compromised on reliable

edit: of course, I was too focused on the minor point when I wrote that and in reality their higher efficiency is largely accounted for not by anything in the drive train, but rather by reducing the frontal area and lowering drag.

Again, not dissing the Lucid engineers as I'm sure they are very good. But expecting anyone to blindside Tesla on this when they have the expertise and the experience is being a bit optimistic

 

[dhanson865]

Let's do the math on that:

• 300 miles / 507 mile range = 59%
• 59% of 113kWh = 66.6kWh
• 66.6kWh in 20 minutes = an average charge rate of ~200kW.

Where did that 350kW go?

On the Model S Tesla claims to add 163 miles in 15 minutes:

• 163 miles / 402 mile range = 40.5%
• 40.5% of 100kWh = 40.5kWh
• 40.5kWh in 15 minutes = an average charge rate of ~162kW.

Hmm. The charge rate is only ~23% faster. (~38% faster if you look at number of miles added.)

So where is that twice as fast again?

If we just look at the miles per kWh: 4.5 vs 4.02, so Lucid is claiming to be ~12% more efficient. Of course their car is smaller, which is where most of it comes from instead of a more efficient drive-train.

Thank you for moving the conversation forward.

My assumption is the "twice as fast" is only at the peak of the charge curve and it tapers down quickly but who knows, maybe I'm wrong. You've given some reasonable math, I've explained my thinking, the rest will be proven out as vaporware or an actual improvement next year.

I'm not a proponent for Lucid, I'm a TSLA shareholder. Just trying to keep my eyes open.

 

[RobStark]

yes, exactly what I said:

edit: of course, I was too focused on the minor point when I wrote that and in reality their higher efficiency is largely accounted for not by anything in the drive train, but rather by reducing the frontal area and lowering drag.

Again, not dissing the Lucid engineers as I'm sure they are very good. But expecting anyone to blindside Tesla on this when they have the expertise and the experience is being a bit optimistic

I don't think they "gave up" or "compromised" on reliable.

"If not invented by Tesla it must be *sugar*" is a bit over the top IMO.

 

[humbaba]

I don't think they "gave up" or "compromised" on reliable.

Fair enough. Nobody outside of Lucid knows what they designed for. The rest of us are just guessing.

When I hear they are using 900v and that is supposed to explain a faster charge rate, I'm still reminded of the discussions around 800v and what would actually be required in order to do so. There is room to play, but fundamentally something has to give and someone in a prior post estimated a 25% faster charge rate. If that pans out it has consequences. Just as an example, getting higher acceptance rate by deepening the series which increases risk of greater lifetime capacity reduction.

It isn't that no one can best Tesla, but for it to come as a surprise? No. Give Lucid some practical experience under their belt with having manufactured cars and getting data from them in the wild for at least a couple of years before expecting them to manage an upset.

 

[dhanson865]

I’m not shooting the messenger.
If you repeat what they said without challenging it, that means you agree with them.
Then, I disagree with you.

I mentioned it on a message board as information worthy of discussion. I never vouched for it's accuracy. I'm not going to write a 5 paragraph disclaimer every time I mention another car company or something they said.

If you go back to my post you'll even see I did have a short disclaimer. I specifically said "if you go by the presentation." That's about as much effort as I'd normally go to for a disclaimer. Sorry if you don't think that is enough.

 

[RobStark]

It isn't that no one can best Tesla, but for it to come as a surprise? No. Give Lucid some practical experience under their belt with having manufactured cars and getting data from them in the wild for at least a couple of years before expecting them to manage an upset.

Lucid has been racing in Formula E for 5 years. Every team uses their pack and charging.

They have been making battery packs for others for over a decade as Atieva.

I think that is a fair amount of practical experience.

 

[Captkerosene]

Can anybody point me to the Tesla thread?

This is the Tesla "Investor" thread. Lucid is on topic.

Tesla as an investment depends on several things:

- Having the best batteries
- Having the best powertrain
- Being first (and only) Robotaxi

Lucid looks like a legitimate challenger - not because this specific car represents a challenge to Tesla but because this company does.

The question a Tesla investor should ask themselves is: would I want to invest in Lucid? If the answer is "yes" then they pose a threat. The threat is that given the current mania for "electrified" cars they will be able to raise tens of Billions of dollars when they go public. Or, they could be the platform Apple, Google or Amazon use to build out their ventures in autonomy. No pesky concerns over short term profits when the prize is so big.

The people on this board sound like the people who were criticizing TSLA a few years ago - car too expensive, they can't produce it etc, etc.

Seeds of doubt affect share price. Lucid will spread those seeds.

Semi-mod: Lucid is on topic. That's why it has its own thread. And the moderator @Right_Said_Fred said to take this discussion there. That wasn't a request. --ggr

 

[humbaba]

Lucid has been racing in Formula E for 5 years. Every team uses their pack and charging.

They have been making battery packs for others for over a decade as Atieva.

I think that is a fair amount of practical experience.

How many vehicles is that? How does that translate to years of manufacturing experience. Look, I get it. You like Lucid, just like you like Rivian and all the others. But at least give Tesla some respect for what they have achieved -- or do you really think that all of those difficulties will not be faced by any other manufacturer?

 

[humbaba]

I don't think they "gave up" or "compromised" on reliable.

"If not invented by Tesla it must be *sugar*" is a bit over the top IMO.

woah! I didn't see that last line when I replied. Where did I ever say that. Please, do not try to put words in my mouth.

 

[ZsoZso]

Let's do the math on that:

Spoiler: details

• 300 miles / 507 mile range = 59%
• 59% of 113kWh = 66.6kWh
• 66.6kWh in 20 minutes = an average charge rate of ~200kW.

Where did that 350kW go?

On the Model S Tesla claims to add 163 miles in 15 minutes:

• 163 miles / 402 mile range = 40.5%
• 40.5% of 100kWh = 40.5kWh
• 40.5kWh in 15 minutes = an average charge rate of ~162kW.

Hmm. The charge rate is only ~23% faster. (~38% faster if you look at number of miles added.)

So where is that twice as fast again?

If we just look at the miles per kWh: 4.5 vs 4.02, so Lucid is claiming to be ~12% more efficient. Of course their car is smaller, which is where most of it comes from instead of a more efficient drive-train.

Just add the fact that the frontal area of the Lucid Air is 20% smaller than the Model S and that more than explains the 12% efficiency gain, so their drivetrain is not any more efficient than Tesla's.

 

[dhanson865]

2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and Battery Day | Tesla

 

[JRP3]

2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and Battery Day | Tesla

That's OT for this thread

 

[dhanson865]

That's OT for this thread

Nope this is the thread were my posts about TSLA and Lucid got moved and Battery day is all about why I was comparing the two.

So all my posts comparing the two will go here since the mods there want to hide their head in the sand and not allow a general discussion of things that affect TSLA stock in the other thread.

2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and Battery Day | Tesla will end up being a response to Lucids presentation from this week.

 

[Fred42]

2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and Battery Day | Tesla will end up being a response to Lucids presentation from this week.

I doubt Elon is that Lucid-oriented.

 

[dhanson865]

I doubt Elon is that Lucid-oriented.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1303495330223198208

shows he has definitely been hearing the lucid fanfare and has responded to it once already.

Did you not realize the Lucid CEO used to work for Tesla?