One thing is to look at Hindenburg's track record. Last year (2019), for instance, they attacked Bloom Energy:
Bloom Energy: A “Clean” Energy Darling Wilting to its Demise
Bloom said it was lies and false conclusions the next day with this response:
Bloom Energy Responds to Statements in Report Published by Hindenburg Research
But, earlier this year, Forbes did an article (
The Forbes Investigation: How Bloom Energy Blew Through Billions Promising Cheap, Green Tech That Falls Short ) on Bloom Energy that said "Bloom has never generated a profit, despite at least $1.7 billion of invested capital, some of which was raised on the back of false statements."
But worse was the preface Forbes put in front of the article: "This Forbes magazine story went to press several days before Bloom Energy’s February 12, 2020, disclosure that it would be restating its prior four years’ financial statements, lowering revenue by up to $180 million, and adding $75 million to losses. "
So, I don't think one can dismiss Hindenburg's claims outright. But, even if the things they point out are true, does that mean the company will actually fail?
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I will say that my own prior view has been that
Milton often talks about the future using the present tense. And the company has switched underlying technologies like Musk switches wives/girlfriends: First it was CNG, then some battery tech that was more energy dense than Tesla, then fuel cells, then their own battery/drivetrain technology, and now switching to GM's battery/fuel cell/drivetrain technology.
On that last point, watch this video:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1303753497180078082 , starting at about 2:30 in:
Julia Chatterly: "What's left for you guys?"
Trevor Milton: "Nikola built the Badger from the group up already... The controls, the inverter, the drivetrain has been designed and built by Nikola."
But in a Squawk Box interview with Milton and GM CEO Mary Barra, (
Nikola shares pop as much as 53% after General Motors takes 11% stake in electric truck maker), Milton admits Nikola was never going to build the Badger themselves, and Mary Barra actually says: "Nikola will be using...the Ultium battery platform system as well as our Hydrotech Fuel cell technology - this is a wonderful validation of our technology and then bringing our engineering and manufacturing expertise to the table."
When asked what Nikola technology GM might have access to, Barra simply restates Nikola will be using GM's battery and fuel cell technology. So, GM isn't getting any tech from Nikola. GM is getting an 11% stake in the company that they can sell pretty quickly. GM is getting a contract manufacturing deal to build Badgers for Nikola (at cost plus profit), and GM gets to use Nikola's pickups and semis as first production tests for their technology that they'll then roll into their own vehicles.
The non-conspiratorial view of this is that Milton is open to using the best battery/fuel cell/drivetrain technology they can find. As the company has grown in market cap and as Tesla has made the traditional OEMs look for ways to stay relevant, Nikola has been able to have high level discussions with the legacy OEMs who probably wouldn't have given Milton the time of day two years ago. So, you can't blame Milton for taking advantage of their improved situation to source better products.
But, at best what Milton is doing is "fake it until you make it." I'm sure he has lied and misled - the question is whether he can continue to keep saving the company before those become a real problem. Nikola still needs to show they can build hydrogen generation and fueling stations (or actually, the NEL ASA can build them in the US), and then that building and running those stations is economically viable. I suspect the first hydrogen they generate will either not be cost effective or not be generated by electrolysis (or both). But, between Invecco and now GM, they have companies who know who to build vehicle lined up to build vehicles for Nikola. All the fakery around demos and videos and changing of specs is lousy, but not company killing.
Milton will continue to ride the waves created by Elon Musk and Tesla as long as he can. And if he continues to sign up real companies, things might work out for a while, at least until things like fuel cell energy physics and costs not coming down to where they need to be become apparent, which will take several years. Milton is perhaps counting on things changing enough by then that he can pivot a few dozen more times.