Andrej Karpathy is leaving Tesla. Bad news for FSD ?

[DeejUK]

I think it'll probably take only a couple more iterations of Ioniqs and Polestars etc for them to be superior in all other respects than simply the residual brand value

I'm feeling this. Once the Supercharger network is fully open, and competitor networks are more established, I'm going to struggle to find reasons to buy another Tesla after my Model Y Performance (assuming it is ever manufactured and delivered).

I bought my Model X because it was the only 6-seater EV, I felt I was supporting a company making a positive change that I wanted to help, and because it was better than everything else on the market. I knew I'd be an early adopter, and would have issues.

There are new EVs coming out with longer range. The Tesla UI is slick, but buggy. AP is not going to be game-changingly better in Europe for years and years. Tesla service is even worse now that they've got 100x more owners out there. You used to get good treatment, even if things took forever. Now you're just another one of thousands being supported by an understaffed function.

My driver door currently won't open from the outside. The suspension squeaks and creaks. The falcon wing doors regularly play up. Sometimes it takes two minutes to boot the car. It refuses to tell the difference between the two keyfobs. The UI won't tell me what song is playing once Spotify switches to 'radio' mode (deciding for itself what song to play next). The horn previously stopped working and needed fixing. The MCU failed in the predictable manner, causing the indicators to cease functioning. There are rattles all over the place. AP occasionally freaks out with phantom braking. Some days the audio volume goes up to 11, some days up to 10.

There are upsides (0-60mph times, Supercharger network, software updates), but they're slowly ceasing to be exclusive features.

If I could buy a Rivian, I totally would!

 

[_Redshift_]

Apple has certainly survived with highly effective management. But they have not created a single all-new/revolutionary product since Steve died. One could give them half a point for the Apple Watch but it's pretty obvious (tiny iPhone on your wrist) and the project was likely started by Jobs before he died.

I think Tesla will follow the same path if/when Musk leaves. They will be a company that provides good products for their customers and good value for shareholders. As @whatstevedid says, many things will likely improve w/o Musk. Bringing in a management team with actual manufacturing experience will improve things like communication, parts availability, logistics, etc.

But the outside the box innovation will end, as it has at Apple.

Musk doesn’t need to depart Tesla. He can stay on the board. Just let an experienced auto executive take over.

 

[_Redshift_]

I'm feeling this. Once the Supercharger network is fully open, and competitor networks are more established, I'm going to struggle to find reasons to buy another Tesla after my Model Y Performance (assuming it is ever manufactured and delivered).

I bought my Model X because it was the only 6-seater EV, I felt I was supporting a company making a positive change that I wanted to help, and because it was better than everything else on the market. I knew I'd be an early adopter, and would have issues.

There are new EVs coming out with longer range. The Tesla UI is slick, but buggy. AP is not going to be game-changingly better in Europe for years and years. Tesla service is even worse now that they've got 100x more owners out there. You used to get good treatment, even if things took forever. Now you're just another one of thousands being supported by an understaffed function.

My driver door currently won't open from the outside. The suspension squeaks and creaks. The falcon wing doors regularly play up. Sometimes it takes two minutes to boot the car. It refuses to tell the difference between the two keyfobs. The UI won't tell me what song is playing once Spotify switches to 'radio' mode (deciding for itself what song to play next). The horn previously stopped working and needed fixing. The MCU failed in the predictable manner, causing the indicators to cease functioning. There are rattles all over the place. AP occasionally freaks out with phantom braking. Some days the audio volume goes up to 11, some days up to 10.

There are upsides (0-60mph times, Supercharger network, software updates), but they're slowly ceasing to be exclusive features.

If I could buy a Rivian, I totally would!

As an early adopter myself, I can sympathize with the list of issues with your Model X.

My S has a list 3 times as long as yours with more major parts failing in them.

I still drive it, because the competition is not yet there, in the sense that their cars are not yet available for purchase. (EQE)

Once Tesla supercharger are open for use by others, the only remaining objection to owning other EVs goes away, for me.

 

[Stuart1714]

Apple Watch.

But Ives is gone now too and he is the one who executed on Jobs' vision.

The watch was a new product for Apple, but wasn’t a ground breaking new product. Companies like Pebble paved the way forward with smart watches and showed a demand for it was there. Apple then came along and made something that integrates with their phones.

I still have a Kickstarter edition of the first Pebble. My first Apple Watch has long since fallen apart though.

 

[prabhu]

Actually Apple very nearly died the first time Jobs left (in the 1980's). The company floundered without his innovation and leadership, and they were forced to invite him back to save the thing, which he did by rapidly bringing out the iMac, followed by iPod, iPad, and iPhone.

Much more recently, after being sick for a decade, Jobs finally did die... and with a decade of advance planning Apple has managed to continue with financial success, but really hasn't made anything new. Today's iPhone is almost indistinguishable from the one being made 6 years ago. Same with the macs - everything is just a bit thinner, a bit faster, a bit more screen resolution.

I have read several books on Apple. Apple would've died with or without Jobs in the 80s because Bill Gates/Microsoft was doing a better job. After his arrival, iPod was the first product they did, and it took five years to become successful. I had the pleasure to own the first few models of iPod with firewire interface and can tell you all day long how terrible and crap those were. Also, other than the "reality distortion field", jobs never invented anything but took credit for everything other people did.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I have read several books on Apple. Apple would've died with or without Jobs in the 80s because Bill Gates/Microsoft was doing a better job. After his arrival, iPod was the first product they did, and it took five years to become successful. I had the pleasure to own the first few models of iPod with firewire interface and can tell you all day long how terrible and crap those were. Also, other than the "reality distortion field", jobs never invented anything but took credit for everything other people did.

and yet strangely the moment Jobs returned, Apple became healthy again... you may want to read deeper. Yes he was an Ahole. So is Elon. And in both cases they Make Sh*t Happen that others can't. Period. The end.

 

[prabhu]

I, as someone who knows very little about AI, would have as much chance of making FSD a reality as him because it’s vapourware, so it makes no real difference if he’s there or not.

You're mistaken, and you should speak to any AI expert if you suspect any foul play by Tesla with FSD. I met a guy in the 90s who said the Internet is vaporware. I happened to meet him again around 2005 during a conference, and he stuck by his words and told me that the Internet would disappear in 10 years.

 

[prabhu]

and yet strangely the moment Jobs returned, Apple became healthy again... you may want to read deeper.

You forgot the part where Microsoft invested, and the US government gave a billion-dollar loan.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

You forgot the part where Microsoft invested, and the US government gave a billion-dollar loan.

And why did none of that happen in the years when Jobs wasn't at the helm? Jobs left, Apple immediately started to wither. Jobs returned, company immediately was healthier and started to change the world including the device you are very likely typing on right now. And yes, he did it with reality-distortion and was a total a-hole. Returning to the main point: HE Did IT.

 

[prabhu]

And why did none of that happen in the years when Jobs wasn't at the helm?

Because Jobs is friends with Gates, and they both happened to steal from Xerox?

 

[goRt]

You're mistaken, and you should speak to any AI expert if you suspect any foul play by Tesla with FSD. I met a guy in the 90s who said the Internet is vaporware. I happened to meet him again around 2005 during a conference, and he stuck by his words and told me that the Internet would disappear in 10 years.

Thomas Watson Jnr said the world would only ever need 4 computers, he was head of IBM at the time...

 

[doats1]

Whenever I think of FSD I’m always reminded of Theranos.

Any takers on Dojo secretly being a room full of interns remotely steering the cars?

 

[_Redshift_]

I have read several books on Apple. Apple would've died with or without Jobs in the 80s because Bill Gates/Microsoft was doing a better job. After his arrival, iPod was the first product they did, and it took five years to become successful. I had the pleasure to own the first few models of iPod with firewire interface and can tell you all day long how terrible and crap those were. Also, other than the "reality distortion field", jobs never invented anything but took credit for everything other people did.

iMac was the first product.

Ipods came later. FireWire was a technically superior protocol to USB at that time.

 

[Zilla91]

The watch was a new product for Apple, but wasn’t a ground breaking new product. Companies like Pebble paved the way forward with smart watches and showed a demand for it was there. Apple then came along and made something that integrates with their phones.

I still have a Kickstarter edition of the first Pebble. My first Apple Watch has long since fallen apart though.

But that’s what apple do, they aren’t first to the market but enter later on with a superior product.

The iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, the iPod wasn’t the first MP3 player…

 

[Big_D]

But that’s what apple do, they aren’t first to the market but enter later on with a superior product.

The iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, the iPod wasn’t the first MP3 player…

This is it. Apple didn’t “invent” anything, they took what was already out there and did it much, much better. Much like Tesla did with the cars.

This is driven by a leader with a great vision of how things should be. They will have a great instinct of what their customers want, even if they may not know it themselves yet (who needs 10,000 songs in their pocket - me!). That leader won’t be designing or manufacturing anything themselves, but they have a fantastic idea of how it should be and drive those design and engineering teams forward with that vision.

When that leader leaves, and they will one day, as long as there is a team left behind with the same instinct, the company and its products will live on. But it may not be the same as before.

 

[Casss]

iMac was the first product.

Ipods came later. FireWire was a technically superior protocol to USB at that time.

I have read several books on Apple. Apple would've died with or without Jobs in the 80s because Bill Gates/Microsoft was doing a better job. After his arrival, iPod was the first product they did, and it took five years to become successful. I had the pleasure to own the first few models of iPod with firewire interface and can tell you all day long how terrible and crap those were. Also, other than the "reality distortion field", jobs never invented anything but took credit for everything other people did.

As above, that sequence is incorrect. The gumdrop iMac's were hugely successful which was the first product after Jobs returned.

Also this isn’t true about the iPod. It was released in q4 of 2001. By 2003 it had 31% market share which doubled in the year following. Since October of 2004 it was somewhere around 90% market share for the US. These figures are all out there.

 

[prabhu]

iMac was the first product.

Ipods came later. FireWire was a technically superior protocol to USB at that time.

Clearly, my memory is fading. Thank you for correcting. Agree about FireWire, but an individual feature may or may not make a product successful. My point was an iPod was not an instantaneous hit like many claims since it took a few iterations to become popular.

 

[_Redshift_]

Regarding all this discussion about Steve Jobs, I have to say a few things.

While Jobs was absolutely horrible at people management, he never wavered from the vision at all times:

1. Great build quality.
2. Reliable operation of the devices (most of the time).
3. Great customer service.
4. Simple, stylish designs.
5. Intuitive UI (most of the time). [EDITED]

How many of those boxes does Tesla check off nowadays? (make it ‘since 2017’)

 

[MrJaffro]

So is Andrej Karpathy a Steve Jobs in Tesla AI or just another geeza, even if a Wozniak, who is replaceable part of the team?


From what the limited that I've seen. Karpathy is quite the academic and research driven guy, and if so I imagine a commercial setting to be draining. I hope that Karpathy has just proved a point and needs to move on. It could be a good sign that the theory is working in practice, or a bad one that it's not and his direction isn't getting the backing anymore.

Maybe he'll be replaced with a Tesla Bot

 

[Wol747]

Karpathy leaving has been evident for some time from the reports of his "time off".
Musk is rapidly becoming a liability for Tesla. He may have an IQ larger than the national debt but his behaviour isn't doing the company any good. He could (just) get away with it four years ago when there was little real competition but behaving like a teenage Twitter addict while every other established manufacturer is building a whole range of EVs that don't pretend to just be computers with wheels tacked on doesn't go down well in my book.