Another Prediction Thread: Guess the top end price

[tga]

The Model s is a Mercedes S class/BMW 7 series competitor. Where as the model 3 is a c class and BMW 3 series competitor. A Mercedes AMGc class63 and a BMW M3 is about $65 000 new with more standard options and even nicer interior than the Tesla model S. Also those prices are negotiable where as the Teslas price is not. Elon Said that the model 3 will have Less fetures than the model s and considering that Teslas interiors are not in the same legue as the Germans. Considering also this is as important as the model S was for the company. Then considering lots of other EV's will be coming on to the market. For these reasons they would be crazy to price the under spect top model 3 higher than the competition. So expect $60000-65000 for the top model with all options wheels/super charger/sunroof/ etc going to $75000 anything higher than that would be unfair/ not competitive and rude!!!!!!!!!!!! It would just disapoint a lot of people. Actually I even think Tesla would lose money if they priced the car expensive. As sometimes you make more money selling 2 than 1.

I expect the PXXD to compete with the BMW M3, which starts at $72k US MSRP, before options, and gets close to $90k with options.

 

[Bruin1996]

I am guessing around 60K because that is what the Tesla employee estimated for me yesterday as I picked up my Model S. ^_^

 

[Snow Drift]

Let's think of it based on the competition (vs known Model S kWh), not including options...

BMW 320i RWD $33,150 vs Tesla M3 40 RWD
BMW 328i RWD $38,350 vs Tesla M3 60 RWD
BMW 340i RWD $45,800 vs Tesla M3 70 RWD
BMW M3 RWD $63,500 vs Tesla M3 P90 or P85 RWD

BMW 320i AWD $35,150 vs Tesla M3 40D AWD
BMW 328i AWD $40,350 vs Tesla M3 60D AWD
BMW 340i AWD $47, 800 vs Tesla M3 70D AWD
No BMW AWD competitor to P90D or P85D.

 

[sg021]

Certainly hope the battery upgrade is not $10K. This would show Tesla has truly not brought down the costs of the battery.

A 15kWh battery upgrade should be no more than $5K. I am assuming $150kWh cost and greater than 50% gross margin. With the GF rumors are they are approaching $100kWh, but this likely does not include the integration cost for battery pack.

Of course it maybe packaged with other options. (Dual Motor, etc) like you have with the model S.

Battery upgrade is very valuable as it brings more range and performance. I don't think $10k is a stretch, even with the fact that battery costs are lower now. Option pricing is one part perception and value to the customer, one part actual cost.

In the US, to go from a 328 to a 340 3-series is about $7500. That is a performance and status upgrade, MPG downgrade situation from the customer point of view.

 

[Red Sage]

Until such time as a Coupe or Cabriolet version is released, I doubt the fully loaded Tesla Model ☰ will exceed $75,000... And, I expect it will probably cost quite a bit less than that. Tesla Motors has a tendency to price their most capable cars in such a manner that makes them an obvious bargain when compared to contemporaries.

 

[AUSinator]

Let's think of it based on the competition (vs known Model S kWh), not including options...

BMW 320i RWD $33,150 vs Tesla M3 40 RWD
BMW 328i RWD $38,350 vs Tesla M3 60 RWD
BMW 340i RWD $45,800 vs Tesla M3 70 RWD
BMW M3 RWD $63,500 vs Tesla M3 P90 or P85 RWD

BMW 320i AWD $35,150 vs Tesla M3 40D AWD
BMW 328i AWD $40,350 vs Tesla M3 60D AWD
BMW 340i AWD $47, 800 vs Tesla M3 70D AWD
No BMW AWD competitor to P90D or P85D.

Note the BMW prices are negotiable you can always get at least $3500- $7000 off the RRP. Teslas are not! Also base model Tesla will have 65- 70 kWh not 40kwh battery as it needs to be better than the bolt and needs to do more than real world 200 miles. With a 40 kWh battery the car would need to weigh less than 1 ton to achieve 200 miles. Also the BMW m3 has more standard features than the model S and the quality of the interior is superior than the model S. Tesla needs to improve interior quality to match the Germans.

 

[Red Sage]

AUSinator: Wait, now... Holdonasec... The base interior and feature list on the BMW 320i is no better appointed than the Toyota Camry LE here in the US. Maybe they do them nicer for Down Under Customers...

As for 'negotiable' price points... If you order a base Tesla Model ☰ that is exactly what you will get. Precisely what you asked for... Period.

Try walking into a BMW dealership here and finding an actual, Real World example of a 'base' BMW 320i... They don't exist! Even if it arrived to the lot that way, the 'independent franchised dealership' is certain to have put 'value added features' on the car (different wheels, tires, window tinting, pinstripes, etc) at a 10,000% markup! Even if you negotiate the price down from that of a 'base' BMW 340i, you'll still end up paying the COST for a 'base' 328i -- while GETTING a 'base' 320i!

You are correct though, that there will be no Model ☰ 40... EVER.

 

[AUSinator]

AUSinator: Wait, now... Holdonasec... The base interior and feature list on the BMW 320i is no better appointed than the Toyota Camry LE here in the US. Maybe they do them nicer for Down Under Customers...

As for 'negotiable' price points... If you order a base Tesla Model ☰ that is exactly what you will get. Precisely what you asked for... Period.

Try walking into a BMW dealership here and finding an actual, Real World example of a 'base' BMW 320i... They don't exist! Even if it arrived to the lot that way, the 'independent franchised dealership' is certain to have put 'value added features' on the car (different wheels, tires, window tinting, pinstripes, etc) at a 10,000% markup! Even if you negotiate the price down from that of a 'base' BMW 340i, you'll still end up paying the COST for a 'base' 328i -- while GETTING a 'base' 320i!

You are correct though, that there will be no Model ☰ 40... EVER.

Yeah I should of researched the U.S. spec 3 more, in Australia they are for sure higher spec than the U.S. However its the quality of materials and design of the interior the Germans do so far better than Tesla. I actually think the base model will have 250 miles real world driving. So expect the base model to have a 70 kWh battery and the higher spec to have 350 miles real world with a 90kwh battery. The model S end of 2017 base model will come with a 90 kWh battery and top model with a 120 kwh battery

 

[AUSinator]

Yeah I should of researched the U.S. spec 3 more, in Australia they are for sure higher spec than the U.S. However its the quality of materials and design of the interior the Germans do so far better than Tesla. Regarding range I actually think the base model will have 250 miles real world driving. So expect the base model to have a 70 kWh battery and the higher spec to have 350 miles real world with a 90kwh battery. The model S end of 2017 base model will come with a 90 kWh battery and top model with a 120 kwh battery

 

[joefee]

I think that Tesla will position the top end M3 slightly above the MS base price, in order to not cannibalize MS 70 and 70D sales too much.

I think the size difference makes the M3 & S70D very different cars, so I do not think there will be any significant cannibalization.

 

[gocken2]

If you use math, and the assumption that the Model 3 is 20% lighter, smaller frontal area, and with a CD equal to or better than the Model S it will get 200 miles with a battery between 40 kWh and 50 kWh. Scale accordingly based on your assumption of how many miles above 200 the base will be. My guess is that the base battery will be 45 kWh since cost is very important. A 60 kWh should get close to 265 miles, and a 70 should get close to 300 miles. The metric to beat on the Bolt is not the kWh rating but distance and 0-60.

 

[AUSinator]

If you use math, and the assumption that the Model 3 is 20% lighter, smaller frontal area, and with a CD equal to or better than the Model S it will get 200 miles with a battery between 40 kWh and 50 kWh. Scale accordingly based on your assumption of how many miles above 200 the base will be. My guess is that the base battery will be 45 kWh since cost is very important. A 60 kWh should get close to 265 miles, and a 70 should get close to 300 miles. The metric to beat on the Bolt is not the kWh rating but distance and 0-60.

The Bolt has a 60 kWh battery and is the size of a Toyota Yaris which is much smaller than a bmw 3 series and it gets only 200 miles. Please explain that?

 

[gocken2]

We do not know the range of the Bolt yet. It may get more miles than 200. The CD of the bolt is probably around .26 or .27. This is much worse than the Model S at .24. There is a rumor that the Model 3 is shooting for .20. We also don't know how heavy the Bolt is but it's a tall vehicle so its frontal area will most likely be bigger and it's most likely made from 100% steel. We also don't know the efficiency of the Bolts drive system. Tesla's will probably be the best out there. Finally when GM says 60 kWh we don't know how much of that will be usable battery.

 

[AUSinator]

We do not know the range of the Bolt yet. It may get more miles than 200. The CD of the bolt is probably around .26 or .27. This is much worse than the Model S at .24. There is a rumor that the Model 3 is shooting for .20. We also don't know how heavy the Bolt is but it's a tall vehicle so its frontal area will most likely be bigger and it's most likely made from 100% steel. We also don't know the efficiency of the Bolts drive system. Tesla's will probably be the best out there. Finally when GM says 60 kWh we don't know how much of that will be usable battery.

Appreciate your answer so so curious to find out all the facts. I hope the car meets all our expectations in performance and price

 

[Darryl]

The base price of a Model 3 is almost half the price of a Model X 70D ( the Base model 3 will probably not be a "D" .) If you follow this logic and take 1/2 off the price of options you still ended up with a loaded car costing more than $80k. I think that is about right. It appears there are a lot of users who feel the same. I am surprised how many think the a loaded Model 3 will in the $50-$60K range. Trsla is suppose to be making a profit on these cars. Anything less than $70k for a fully loaded car would mean they would be loosing money.

 

[musicious]

A Mercedes AMGc class63 and a BMW M3 is about $65 000 new with more standard options and even nicer interior than the Tesla model S. Elon Said that the model 3 will have Less features than the model s and considering that Teslas interiors are not in the same legue as the Germans. For these reasons they would be crazy to price the under spect top model 3 higher than the competition. So expect $60000-65000 for the top model with all options wheels/super charger/sunroof/ etc going to $75000 anything higher than that would be unfair/ not competitive and rude!!!!!!!!!!!! It would just disapoint a lot of people. Actually I even think Tesla would lose money if they priced the car expensive.

Have you actually test driven a Tesla or know much about it? You clearly haven't experienced one if you think they should price the top end lower than competitors solely based on quality of interior or "standard options" when competitors don't even HAVE options that Tesla provides:

1. Autopilot: No competitor comes close to what Tesla's Autopilot can do, we are lucky to have this as an option on the Model 3 at any price.

2. Over the air software updates that IMPROVE the car over time for free, standard; No competitor offers this, most either will not upgrade anything or charge premium to do so in their facility.

3. 17" screen/UI: No competitor has anything close to the ease of use of the 17" screen and nav/apps, standard (assuming the 3 has this)

4. Acceleration, quiet, no gas: Most likely all model 3 variants (especially P3 if they have one) will beat the acceleration of comparably priced competitor cars while being quiet and not worrying about gas & pollution

5. Safest car in production by far: As the S & X got a 5 star rating in every test beating competitors by significant margin so will the 3: Large crumple zone with empty front trunk limits front collision if the collision avoidance somehow fails; rigid frame has lowest side impact of any car, one guy was hit in driver side door 40+mph and survived; Rollover is impossible due to low center of gravity from battery cells on the floor (which also improved handling vs competitors) and the machine they used to crush the roof actually broke cause it was so strong (a woman & family survived a huge tree falling on her roof)

6. Supercharger network once expanded more along with autopilot and other advantages above will make the Model 3 in much higher demand than any other electric car due to charging 10x faster unless someone comes out with a comparable system (Chevy did not mention anything comparable for the Bolt I believe)

Also, I would not be surprised to see a loaded P3 at $90k+ if it has similar performance to the SP90DL at 20% less size; people who don't need the large sedan or can't afford the P90DL might pay $90k for a P3 over a 90D, choosing performance over size (which results in greater profit margin for Tesla by selling a P3 instead of 90D)

So if you really prefer the german interior don't buy a Tesla, it's your loss.

 

[Red Sage]

However its the quality of materials and design of the interior the Germans do so far better than Tesla.

Come on, Man... BMW has used the same basic interior design for at least the past 35 years. I can tell, because I am a longtime Honda fan, and I can tell they have been copying BMW's interior design for much of the past 25 years. Before Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti arrived on the US market, both BMW and Mercedes-Benz vehicles were positively Spartan inside. They may have been expensive cars, but they were not in the slightest bit 'luxurious' at all. The only reason BMW's 'quality of materials' improved was due to the force of competition from the Japanese -- who were doing the same thing, only BETTER. Tesla's cars will be functional and Spartan, but not sub-standard in the least. The presumption that the Model ☰ will be put together like a 1984 Chevrolet Chevette or 1974 Ford Pinto is ridiculous. Those who are seeking 'luxury', such as that found in a Lexus or Cadillac, are bound to be disappointed, of course. But no, the offering from Tesla Motors will not be any worse than a Toyota Camry LE -- just like a BMW 320i.

 

[MrBoylan]

Just wondering what everyone thinks a 'fully optioned' Model 3 will sell for. I've seen predictions in other threads but not a thread with just price predictions. Poll is for USD (as that is what I'm familiar with)

I went with the top range. And I think loaded Model 3s will be extremely popular (and profitable for Tesla, which is a good thing). The promise has been for a $35K car and I think they'll hit that target for the base model, but if we assume they will offer similar options for the Model 3 that they do for the S and the X, it will get up over $75K pretty easily.

I posted this in the roll-out speculation thread too, but even assuming a 20% to 25% discount on options on the Model 3 vs. the X, here's a path to over $85K.

BTW, the current cost for a battery upgrade from 70 to 90 (20 kWh boost) is actually $13K. I'm assuming they could do a 20kWh boost on the Model 3 for less ($10K) but if it's even lower than that, then great. I'm also assuming a $2K fee to enable supercharger access (which would fund expansion of the supercharger network in a sustainable way). But maybe they'll throw in supercharging for the upgraded battery? Or maybe they'll do a "long distance driving package" which includes supercharger-aware NAV and SC access? Who knows? But here's some specific numbers that aren't completely ridiculous (at least not to me). But believe me, I'd prefer to pay less.

Model 3 Possible Options Pricing

• Base (60 kWh) $ 35,000.00
• Larger Battery (80 kWh) $ 10,000.00
• Dual Motor $ 3,750.00
• Performance Upgrade option (includes smart air suspension) $ 15,000.00
• Ludicrous Speed Upgrade $ 7,500.00
• Auto Pilot $ 2,500.00
• Supercharger Access $ 2,000.00
• Premium Interior/Lighting Package $ 2,500.00
• Ultra HiFi Sound $ 2,000.00
• Cold Weather Package $ 750.00
• Multi-Coat Paint $ 1,250.00
• Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
• 19" premium wheels $ 2,000.00

Total before Incentives (fully loaded): $ 86,250.00

A few things that could lower the fully loaded price:

• Supercharger access could be rolled into the base price or rolled into the larger battery version
• Performance package might be lower than $15K (though it is $20K on the S and X)
• Ludicrous speed might not be offered on the Model 3
• AutoPilot could be discounted on the Model 3, but if so, I believe they would lower it across the board for S and X as well. It's the same feature, should be the same price. And I really don't think they need to do this yet as there really aren't a lot of competitive solutions that compare
• Options could be even more heavily discounted compared to S and X.

A few things that could raise the fully loaded price:

• Same exact options pricing as on the Model S/Model X (though I find this unlikely)
• Panoramic roof option could be offered
• Other as yet unknown options

 

[ummgood]

My personal opinion is the Model 3 can compete with the 3 series BMW but it really shouldn't try to compete with the M3. A PXXDL might be faster off the line than a M3 but the M3 really has the driving dynamics down. I think if Tesla tried to make that comparison every car magazine would rip them apart because as far as what I have read and doing a couple rides in the Teslas is they really are not track cars like a M3 is. The M3 is competing along side vettes, etc...

What does everyone think about this? This would imply to me that the top price should compare closely to a nicely trimmed out 340i with the luxury package etc... I think if Tesla gets much above 60k then they are going to have to start competing in the suspension/driving feel category as well to compete with a M3 or a AMG merc.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Shouldn't be very difficult for the model 3 to have the same straight acceleration as the BMW M3 of about 4 sec
i would venture to guess this would be part of the upgraded version and less than 50k