Another Prediction Thread: Guess the top end price

[ummgood]

Shouldn't be very difficult for the model 3 to have the same straight acceleration as the BMW M3 of about 4 sec
i would venture to guess this would be part of the upgraded version and less than 50k

I agree with you that the straight line acceleration will be as fast or better than a BMW M3. What I am talking about is the actual driving dynamics of the car. The BMW M3 is a masterpiece that I don't think without a lot of suspension tuning would be even approachable by a Model 3. That is why I stated that I don't think the BMW M3 should be in Tesla's targets unless they can make it handle and perform like a track car. That would be a lot of work and track time which I don't think is really on the books for the Model 3 at this point. Doesn't mean that type of car couldn't show up later but for now cars that compete with the BMW M3 spend tons of time at Nermeberg getting the driving dynamics down. All of the big boys do it for this type of car. Corvette, Camaro, Cadillac V series, BMW M3, AMG, Lexus type F. If we see a Model 3 testing there then we might know that Tesla is serious.

 

[MrBoylan]

Shouldn't be very difficult for the model 3 to have the same straight acceleration as the BMW M3 of about 4 sec
i would venture to guess this would be part of the upgraded version and less than 50k

On current Teslas, getting the performance package ("upgraded version") is actually a $33K upgrade as it requires $13K for the larger battery plus $20K for the "P" upgrade. I do think (hope) they can discount these on the Model 3, but I don't see how we could see a performance version of the Model 3 for under $50K by any math.

I do think an upgraded Model 3 will compete well with a BMW M3 in any meaningful comparison. The Model S already handles superbly well on the track (except for sustained high speeds) and I don't expect much less from the Model 3. As a smaller/lighter car, it may even handle better than the Model S or X. Plus, unlike the BMW, the Model 3 won't be burdened with one of those pesky internal combustion engines.

Here's Car and Driver's take of a Model S on the track, and this was a couple of years ago (before Dual Motor was available as an option): Electrifying Lime Rock Park’s Short Circuit in a Tesla Model S P85 (Yes, We Tracked It)

Not super-impressed with the regular S 85, but they had different feelings about the P85+

I suspect once the Model 3 has been out for a while, there will be tweakers squeezing even more performance out of it (like maybe an aftermarket add-on battery cooler that would allow it to maintain high speeds for longer).

 

[Fiver]

I went with the top range. And I think loaded Model 3s will be extremely popular (and profitable for Tesla, which is a good thing). The promise has been for a $35K car and I think they'll hit that target for the base model, but if we assume they will offer similar options for the Model 3 that they do for the S and the X, it will get up over $75K pretty easily.

I posted this in the roll-out speculation thread too, but even assuming a 20% to 25% discount on options on the Model 3 vs. the X, here's a path to over $85K.

BTW, the current cost for a battery upgrade from 70 to 90 (20 kWh boost) is actually $13K. I'm assuming they could do a 20kWh boost on the Model 3 for less ($10K) but if it's even lower than that, then great. I'm also assuming a $2K fee to enable supercharger access (which would fund expansion of the supercharger network in a sustainable way). But maybe they'll throw in supercharging for the upgraded battery? Or maybe they'll do a "long distance driving package" which includes supercharger-aware NAV and SC access? Who knows? But here's some specific numbers that aren't completely ridiculous (at least not to me). But believe me, I'd prefer to pay less.

Model 3 Possible Options Pricing

• Base (60 kWh) $ 35,000.00
• Larger Battery (80 kWh) $ 10,000.00
• Dual Motor $ 3,750.00
• Performance Upgrade option (includes smart air suspension) $ 15,000.00
• Ludicrous Speed Upgrade $ 7,500.00
• Auto Pilot $ 2,500.00
• Supercharger Access $ 2,000.00
• Premium Interior/Lighting Package $ 2,500.00
• Ultra HiFi Sound $ 2,000.00
• Cold Weather Package $ 750.00
• Multi-Coat Paint $ 1,250.00
• Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
• 19" premium wheels $ 2,000.00

Total before Incentives (fully loaded): $ 86,250.00

A few things that could lower the fully loaded price:

• Supercharger access could be rolled into the base price or rolled into the larger battery version
• Performance package might be lower than $15K (though it is $20K on the S and X)
• Ludicrous speed might not be offered on the Model 3
• AutoPilot could be discounted on the Model 3, but if so, I believe they would lower it across the board for S and X as well. It's the same feature, should be the same price. And I really don't think they need to do this yet as there really aren't a lot of competitive solutions that compare
• Options could be even more heavily discounted compared to S and X.

A few things that could raise the fully loaded price:

• Same exact options pricing as on the Model S/Model X (though I find this unlikely)
• Panoramic roof option could be offered
• Other as yet unknown options

Slightly off topic, but I'm starting to wonder if the price increases supposedly happening for the S soon might just be consolidation of the options into the car. Now things that were options will be mandatory on the S and the price will increase along with that. This again will drive the "luxury" image of the S and X and leave the low end to the 3.

 

[ummgood]

I do think an upgraded Model 3 will compete well with a BMW M3 in any meaningful comparison. The Model S already handles superbly well on the track (except for sustained high speeds) and I don't expect much less from the Model 3. As a smaller/lighter car, it may even handle better than the Model S or X. Plus, unlike the BMW, the Model 3 won't be burdened with one of those pesky internal combustion engines.

I get giddy thinking about this comparison. I truly hope the model 3 gives it a run for its money. I just think with all the comparisons on price here saying that the Model 3 can go up to 90k because that is what a BMW M3 goes up to I just wanted to remind everyone it isn't just about 0-60 and a quarter mile time. The BMW M3 really is a track car. People love it not because it shreds Hellcats at the drag strip. People love it because it is a true driving machine and the latest versions are getting back to that. I hope Tesla has that in mind if they plan on thinking the Model 3 is in the same league of that car.

I like the Car and Driver article. While they liked it on the track I still think that it was more for fun and not comparing to the other cars that are in the same sporting category like a Panamera. I am wondering how a P90D would do on a track against something that has real handling capabilities. I would love to see such a comparison. I think those types of comparisons will be more frequent on the Model 3 as there is more competition at that size. Think head to head with Audi RS5, BMW M3/4, Cadillac A/CTS-V

 

[wallet.dat]

If Tesla keeps a similar ratio from base-model to dual-motor P trim, we can gauge the upper end Model E by simply looking at the spread of the Model S.

Model S: $75K base, $108K P90D (44% diff)
Model E: $35K base, $50.4K PXXD (assuming 44% diff)

Of course that's a big "if"

 

[MrBoylan]

If Tesla keeps a similar ratio from base-model to dual-motor P trim, we can gauge the upper end Model E by simply looking at the spread of the Model S.

Model S: $75K base, $108K P90D (44% diff)
Model E: $35K base, $50.4K PXXD (assuming 44% diff)

Of course that's a big "if"

Model S base is $70K. It's $75K for the dual motor version (which is a requirement of the "P"). So it's really a 54% premium to go from base Model S 70 to the base Model S P90D, without any additional options. The base Model 3 is not likely to be dual motor, so if you use the same percentages from the S, then you'd be looking at $54K just for the "P" option, and this would most likely include a larger battery, dual motors, air suspension and those nifty red brake calipers.

 

[musicious]

Just cause a car is smaller and cheaper steel vs aluminum with slight battery cost savings doesn't mean that all the upgraded features cost less too, you can't say the performance S is X% more than base S so the P3 will be the same % more than base 3... you have to consider the cost of the actual upgrades to tesla will not be significantly less than a model S.

Using similar logic if the base S is $70k and base 3 is $35k, then you could poorly assume the fully loaded 3 is also half the cost of a fully loaded SP90DL so like $70k; if that were the case who would buy the $140K car when they could get one just 20% smaller with the same performance for half the cost? most likely it'll be around $90K so they actually have to think twice about it

 

[Red Sage]

My personal opinion is the Model 3 can compete with the 3 series BMW but it really shouldn't try to compete with the M3. A PXXDL might be faster off the line than a M3 but the M3 really has the driving dynamics down. I think if Tesla tried to make that comparison every car magazine would rip them apart because as far as what I have read and doing a couple rides in the Teslas is they really are not track cars like a M3 is. The M3 is competing along side vettes, etc...

Perhaps you have missed a bunch of 3-Series head-to-head comparisons over the past few years? Pretty consistently, BMW has been losing to competitors when it has come to handling in particular since about 2012 or so. Most of the major automotive reviewers have complained that something has been lost in translation with the 3-Series in particular, and BMW vehicles in general, since then. Basically, they way they put it is that they are 'Better Cars, but Worse BMWs'... So, though they still consider the 3-Series to be the handling benchmark, it has been surpassed. I expect the Tesla Model ☰ to continue that trend.

 

[MrBoylan]

Just cause a car is smaller and cheaper steel vs aluminum with slight battery cost savings doesn't mean that all the upgraded features cost less too, you can't say the performance S is X% more than base S so the P3 will be the same % more than base 3... you have to consider the cost of the actual upgrades to tesla will not be significantly less than a model S.

Using similar logic if the base S is $70k and base 3 is $35k, then you could poorly assume the fully loaded 3 is also half the cost of a fully loaded SP90DL so like $70k; if that were the case who would buy the $140K car when they could get one just 20% smaller with the same performance for half the cost? most likely it'll be around $90K so they actually have to think twice about it

I mostly agree but do think that they could offer some discounts on options on the Model 3 vs. the Model S.

Smaller interior and a smaller body would mean lower materials and labor costs on the seats, upgraded audio system and paint options. Also, most of the entry-level luxury manufacturers (including BMW) charge less than $1,000 for their premium paint offerings. Tesla charges $1000-$1500 for that on the S and X. I expect that to be lower on the Model 3. Also, the motors on the 3 will likely be a bit smaller than on the S and X so the "D" option should be a bit less expensive.

And the "P" option could be less than on the S simply because people would probably balk more at a $20K option on a $35K car as opposed to a $20K option on an $80K car. A lot of the options pricing is about perceived value and this differs on two cars that have vastly different base prices.

The only feature that I think will not be discounted on the Model 3 is AutoPilot as that's really a game-changer and unavailable on competitive cars (for the most part). Tesla spent millions developing this feature and continues to invest heavily in making it better over time. That kind of R&D needs to be funded, and charging for the option should provide a significant revenue source for the company for the foreseeable future.

 

[ummgood]

Perhaps you have missed a bunch of 3-Series head-to-head comparisons over the past few years? Pretty consistently, BMW has been losing to competitors when it has come to handling in particular since about 2012 or so. Most of the major automotive reviewers have complained that something has been lost in translation with the 3-Series in particular, and BMW vehicles in general, since then. Basically, they way they put it is that they are 'Better Cars, but Worse BMWs'... So, though they still consider the 3-Series to be the handling benchmark, it has been surpassed. I expect the Tesla Model ☰ to continue that trend.

I agree that there are some cars taking the crown. That wasn't my point though. I haven't seen many track tests of the Model S. I have seen ones like above where the Model S is driven on the track but not really any good comparisons with similar priced cars. I would love to see some if anyone has any videos or articles I could take a look at. I did see one between a Charger Hellcat and the Model S. The Model S was slower in figure 8 but they didn't do much else as far as handling comparisons.

I do think the P model of the new 3 might have some decent handling traits but I would like to see Tesla go through the effort of tuning the suspension similar to the other big boys including the BMW M3, Cadillac CTS-V, etc... Plus how does the steering weight fill etc... Does anyone have any idea of that? I would like to see such things before the price of the Model 3 is justified against a BMW M3.

 

[ummgood]

On another note is there any chance that Tesla might go with the Honda sales approach where there are different trim levels and you get what you get? I know that is probably far fetched but it does help the manufacturer get costs down since they don't have to handle the complexity of custom orders.

 

[gregincal]

On another note is there any chance that Tesla might go with the Honda sales approach where there are different trim levels and you get what you get? I know that is probably far fetched but it does help the manufacturer get costs down since they don't have to handle the complexity of custom orders.

Every single Tesla built is a custom order, so there's really no point. They don't build cars and stick them on dealer's lots.

 

[ummgood]

Every single Tesla built is a custom order, so there's really no point. They don't build cars and stick them on dealer's lots.

True but that is because they are making high end luxury cars for a few people. When they try to scale there is something to be said with churning out red level x cars and when someone orders it put it on a truck/train and send it to them. I agree it doesn't make sense to do it for lux but for getting to the more competitive high volume car business it makes a ton of sense.

 

[wallet.dat]

Model S base is $70K. It's $75K for the dual motor version (which is a requirement of the "P"). So it's really a 54% premium to go from base Model S 70 to the base Model S P90D, without any additional options. The base Model 3 is not likely to be dual motor, so if you use the same percentages from the S, then you'd be looking at $54K just for the "P" option, and this would most likely include a larger battery, dual motors, air suspension and those nifty red brake calipers.

Ah, you're absotively right. Though even at $54K it's still in the same voting option

 

[gregincal]

True but that is because they are making high end luxury cars for a few people. When they try to scale there is something to be said with churning out red level x cars and when someone orders it put it on a truck/train and send it to them. I agree it doesn't make sense to do it for lux but for getting to the more competitive high volume car business it makes a ton of sense.

When I order an iPhone or an iMac (which has quite a few configuration options) it is built to order (with engraving and everything) and drop shipped directly from the factory in China to my door. In Europe any time you order a BMW (even a 1 series) it is generally made to order at the factory and delivered. Tracking orders is easy and much cheaper than building car configs people may or may not want. Computers are really good at that stuff. The only reason all cars aren't done this way is the awful dealership system in the US where people don't order cars, dealers do and you get to choose from whatever they decided to order.

 

[MrBoylan]

Ah, you're absotively right. Though even at $54K it's still in the same voting option

Yes, but without any of the other options. "Fully loaded" means premium paint, premium wheels, upgraded audio, autopilot, etc., in addition to the larger battery and performance option. Add all those up and the digits will get larger pretty quickly...

 

[MrBoylan]

True but that is because they are making high end luxury cars for a few people. When they try to scale there is something to be said with churning out red level x cars and when someone orders it put it on a truck/train and send it to them. I agree it doesn't make sense to do it for lux but for getting to the more competitive high volume car business it makes a ton of sense.

Dell has shown that "just in time" inventory (building PCs to order) is a business model that works well even at scale. I believe Tesla will continue to do custom orders for the Model 3. It's efficient, reduces waste and eliminates unnecessary inventory. The only real drawback is that buyers will not be able to do an "impulse purchase" of a car as they can do at traditional stealerships. But Tesla could easily make a few fully loaded Model 3s (or base models) as inventory/test drive cars for each store. If a customer doesn't want to wait, the store could offer the display model for immediate sale. Otherwise wait a few weeks for your custom built-to-order Model 3.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I keep playing with the numbers, specific to my situation, and honestly, I'm thinking I should just get a loaded Model 3, get a 72 month loan at a nice low rate for the portion I'd have to finance (~$17K).....

and then sell my Audi somewhere, and pay the loan on the Model 3 off.

BOOM...before my 1st payment is going to be due, USAA will have to release the lien on my title.

 

[Red Sage]

I agree that there are some cars taking the crown. That wasn't my point though. I haven't seen many track tests of the Model S. I have seen ones like above where the Model S is driven on the track but not really any good comparisons with similar priced cars. I would love to see some if anyone has any videos or articles I could take a look at. I did see one between a Charger Hellcat and the Model S. The Model S was slower in figure 8 but they didn't do much else as far as handling comparisons.

Just stop by the Teslarati website and search for 'track'... Or, you can look at the Model S videos found on the Consumer Reports and Motor Trend YouTube channels.

I do think the P model of the new 3 might have some decent handling traits but I would like to see Tesla go through the effort of tuning the suspension similar to the other big boys including the BMW M3, Cadillac CTS-V, etc... Plus how does the steering weight [feel] etc... Does anyone have any idea of that? I would like to see such things before the price of the Model 3 is justified against a BMW M3.

I hope you actually mean the Cadillac ATS-V, as that is the one that competes against the BMW M3. The CTS-V competes against the M5 and E-Class AMG cars.

But of course, by targeting the BMW 3-Series, Tesla Motors makes it quite obvious they will be tuning the suspension to at least match and probably surpass it. As mentioned earlier, BMW has already been beaten. With so many examples of how to beat them in handling from all the other competitors, Tesla is very likely to examine them all, and improve upon whichever they determine is the best.

"If you're gonna steal, steal from the best!" -- Woody Allen

On another note is there any chance that Tesla might go with the Honda sales approach where there are different trim levels and you get what you get? I know that is probably far fetched but it does help the manufacturer get costs down since they don't have to handle the complexity of custom orders.

YES... and, NO.

The options list for the Model ☰ will be rather short compared to other manufacturers. Check out the Porsche website. They have something like 200+ individual option choices on every vehicle they offer. I expect that Tesla Motors will simplify the order process as much as possible. This doesn't mean there will be 'hard line in the concrete' designations like 'DX, LX, EX, SE' -- with locked in options packages that are available only at particular trim levels... But for the sake of making sure orders can be fulfilled in a streamlined fashion, Tesla will want to control the ease by which a vehicle can be built. The fewer variables, the easier it will be to do that. Because ultimately, Tesla is very serious about selling the Model ☰ en masse, as quickly as possible, to as many customers as possible.

Certain hardware features will be standard issue on every car they sell. Certain options will be available on any car. Certain options will only be available with Dual Motor All Wheel Drive, for instance. Certain options will simply not appear unless you request the Performance version of the car. I believe those will be the general 'trim' levels for Model ☰.

 

[igotzzoom]

Something to remember is Tax, Title, License, and delivery fee on the car. You actually have to price it around $39k to end up at $45k (If you are buying in California, or another state with higher sales tax). The destination fee is currently $1,100 on the S/X, and the TTL is $4000 on a $40k car.

I know TT&L is extra. I'm also not necessarily counting on any rebates or tax credits. I know all-in, it's probably going to be closer to $50k. Not my ideal price, but if the car is compelling enough, I won't mind paying it.