Any point in placing an order now?

[EinSV]

There were 325,000 reservations made in the first week. There could easily be 1,000,000 reservations by the time of the launch.

So the question is, would you prefer to have place number 350,001 or 1,000,001?

Also, given the number of reservations, the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31.

 

[zenmaster]

Aren't N.A. regional order queues emptied before moving eastward? In other words, early East coast orders are still behind any West coast orders, regardless of order date.

 

[Ranman]

I did it. I placed my order.

 

[jeffhre]

they have always said west coast of the US will get their cars first...i would imagine as long as you were within the first 24 hours or so (like we both were), we'll be near the front of the line. anyone else in CA who ordered before us will be before us, but certainly not the whole 198k people...

Yes, but by the the production begins, there could be 198,000 more globally, in California, or just in southern California! Since orders will be batched, and it's up to 325,000 now, orders that are from California just before the start of production, could conceivably be built after the first RHD orders from Australia are filled.

 

[jeffhre]

I did it. I placed my order.

Congrats! After your Tesla email arrives get your reservation information on the My Tesla tab at their website if you haven't already. Should be faster than when they were getting 100,000s of orders a day!

 

[MP3Mike]

Aren't N.A. regional order queues emptied before moving eastward? In other words, early East coast orders are still behind any West coast orders, regardless of order date.

I don't think they said that at all. They are going to start close to the factory, and once they are comfortable that the cars are coming out with good quality they will start moving eastward. Probably what matters most is your option load. "Stripper" cars will essentially be the last ones made. Just like nobody has gotten a 70 kWh version of the Model X yet, and we are 5 months in to the production. (Or at least I haven't heard of a 70 X shipping yet.)

Though they are opening the Model X design studio up to everyone on Monday, so the 70s might start rolling off the lines soon.

So if it took 5 months to open the design studio to non-reservations with the small demand for the Model X, how long do you think it will be for the Model 3?

 

[Pdub2015]

Also, given the number of reservations, the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31.

This is pure speculation, correct? All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines. And this figure was released before the first M3 reservations were taken. I'm under the impression that this production figure is based on a realistic assessment of manufacturing capability, not demand. What makes you think they can produce cars at a faster rate than that?

 

[MP3Mike]

This is pure speculation, correct? All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines. And this figure was released before the first M3 reservations were taken. I'm under the impression that this production figure is based on a realistic assessment of manufacturing capability, not demand. What makes you think they can produce cars at a faster rate than that?

But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)

 

[EinSV]

Pdub,

Not speculation at all. Based on Elon's recent tweets I think it is fair to say that the earlier production estimates are out the window:

"Looks like we may need to increase production plans for the Model 3"

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..."

Elon Musk on Twitter

We will have to wait for details on exactly what that means, but whatever the details I think it would be a mistake to make plans based on older production estimates. Now that Tesla has at least some sense of the magnitude of the demand, they can build the production capacity to handle it.

 

[EinSV]

But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)

Exactly what I meant. I would add that it could eventually be more than 6500/week if they build a second factory.

 

[JPP]

FWIW, I ordered a couple of days ago and probably am in the #250,000-300,000 range. My logic:

My 2013 S85 will be 6 years old in 2019. I will be ready for a new Tesla. Would get to see a 3 in 2018 and then decide. I would plan my order and delivery as appropriate and as I am offered the opportunity to configure/order. I would/could defer one time (per the reservation agreement) to better align delivery with my need/desire to retire my S85.

 

[neroden]

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.

Do you want to get your car before 2020? You should probably place a reservation now.

I know I don't want a new car until 2021, so I've been holding off on placing a reservation. But if the queue gets over 2 million, I probably will...

 

[zenmaster]

I don't think they said that at all. They are going to start close to the factory, and once they are comfortable that the cars are coming out with good quality they will start moving eastward. Probably what matters most is your option load. "Stripper" cars will essentially be the last ones made.

I understand the logic, however I talked to a Tesla salesperson today who thought that, based on West to East queuing, indeed most of the US would have their cars going into production before those on the East coast. He confirmed that late queuers on the West would have priority over early queuers on the East.
Once M3 production is ready, Tesla could later decide to limit the number of orders fulfilled at once for each region based on options and/or some arbitrary cut off point, but they have not stated how they would do so.

 

[DrPhoton]

...All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines.

I think Elon said the Fremont, CA plant had previously produced 500,000 vehicles per year. He did not say that they would not build any other manufacturing plants!

 

[tdelta1000]

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.

The Idea is that you are purchasing a car that you want and like but most of all you will be getting a car of the future. A car will be on the forefront to the end of gasoline engine cars.

 

[MP3Mike]

I understand the logic, however I talked to a Tesla salesperson today who thought that, based on West to East queuing, indeed most of the US would have their cars going into production before those on the East coast. He confirmed that late queuers on the West would have priority over early queuers on the East.
Once M3 production is ready, Tesla could later decide to limit the number of orders fulfilled at once for each region based on options and/or some arbitrary cut off point, but they have not stated how they would do so.

I would put zero faith in what a Tesla salesperson said regarding production/delivery order. Tesla tends not to tell them anything that isn't publicly announced, and Tesla certainly hasn't given out that many details.

 

[zenmaster]

I would put zero faith in what a Tesla salesperson said regarding production/delivery order. Tesla tends not to tell them anything that isn't publicly announced, and Tesla certainly hasn't given out that many details.

Yes, I am questioning his info, that's why I'm (still) asking for simple clarification on the subject. I suppose he could have honestly just said "I don't know", but that must have been his understanding/interpretation based on Tesla's ambiguous statements.

 

[crackers8199]

Yes, but by the the production begins, there could be 198,000 more globally, in California, or just in southern California! Since orders will be batched, and it's up to 325,000 now, orders that are from California just before the start of production, could conceivably be built after the first RHD orders from Australia are filled.

not sure why you quoted me, i wasn't saying he shouldn't place an order...was just pointing out that CA is likely ahead of everyone else.

 

[crackers8199]

To be frank, unless I needed a car, I would not want one of the first Model 3s.

You always want to be in the second or third batch, particularly with Teslas, judging from the Model S deliveries. The car is always being improved, iterated, and little bugs fixed: so, the later you can buy, it's actually beneficial. Likely fewer service visits, too--again, judging from the Model S deliveries.

i can think of 7500 reasons to want to be in the first batch...

 

[Pdub2015]

But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)

Good point. I agree with this (and you and EInSV).

I think Elon said the Fremont, CA plant had previously produced 500,000 vehicles per year. He did not say that they would not build any other manufacturing plants!

This is true, however the time (and resources!) it would take to either purchase and retool an existing factory or build a new one would most likely have an negative impact on meeting production demand in a timely fashion. Now, THAT is pure speculation on my part.

Still, to the OP's question, because we're standing on virgin terrain... Tesla has never faced nor met this current challenge before... we are all really speculating as to the value of early reservations over later ones. It's both thrilling to see such demand and kind of disheartening knowing that there will be a long wait. And in the meantime, the anti-Tesla press will be releasing story after story denigrating the brand and causing worry about the cars.

Life moves too fast as it is, without having a reason to wish it were 2018 already! Sheesh! Personally, I'm waiting until the first deliveries are made before submitting my order. So no reservation swag for me!