Being east coaster who waited in line on the 31st.... I'd expect to take delivery before other east coasters who may have waited for the reveal or even decided to reserve days later online but is it wrong of me to want their wait to be at least 4-6 weeks or more? I suppose it's hard to tell before options are decided upon.
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jeffhre
Member
Just pointing out that even in prioritized California, if someone waits until deliveries begin to order - the line could be extremely long.
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jeffhre
Member
Elon MuskVerified account
@elonmusk
Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity & PayPal
- Tesla's Model 3 already has 198,000 reservations ...and it totally lives up to the hype http://bloom.bg/1pQcn2u
2,260 retweets3,859 likes
Elon Musk @elonmusk Apr 1
Definitely going to need to rethink production planning...
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Short answer is yes, you should. Or anyone else reading this thats on the fence.
Long answer - You're not 325k back of everyone. Best estimate from model s numbers suggest that all sales are roughly half of US and the rest worldwide. If we use that as an example, you're 163k back behind of everyone. Add options and your location and now you're up even further.
So the question now should be will you qualify for the rebate? Personally, I believe you will. It could be for the full $7500 or it could be for the other two smaller ones but I think there's a good chance you get one of them. Why? Because tesla will probably have 6 months of production over the 200k limit. If they time is right, which logically only makes sense for them to do, they'll reach the 200k mark the first day of the quarter. Every car delivered that quarter will get the full 7500 buck rebate. In addition, the next quarter after that is a "free quarter" meaning every car delivered in that quarter will get the full $7500 rebate. Then the next 2 quarters will get $3750, and finally the next 2 quarter after that will get $1875.
So, add that all up. That's 18 months of rebates after the 200k cutoff.
The only question for me is how fast can they ramp up production during that time so everyone gets one of the rebates.
If they can roll and hit their strive of the model 3 production at the right time, there could be tens if not hundreds of thousands of vehicles during that 18 month window for rebates.
Just my humbling opinion...but logically it makes sense to me.
G
Long answer - You're not 325k back of everyone. Best estimate from model s numbers suggest that all sales are roughly half of US and the rest worldwide. If we use that as an example, you're 163k back behind of everyone. Add options and your location and now you're up even further.
So the question now should be will you qualify for the rebate? Personally, I believe you will. It could be for the full $7500 or it could be for the other two smaller ones but I think there's a good chance you get one of them. Why? Because tesla will probably have 6 months of production over the 200k limit. If they time is right, which logically only makes sense for them to do, they'll reach the 200k mark the first day of the quarter. Every car delivered that quarter will get the full 7500 buck rebate. In addition, the next quarter after that is a "free quarter" meaning every car delivered in that quarter will get the full $7500 rebate. Then the next 2 quarters will get $3750, and finally the next 2 quarter after that will get $1875.
So, add that all up. That's 18 months of rebates after the 200k cutoff.
The only question for me is how fast can they ramp up production during that time so everyone gets one of the rebates.
If they can roll and hit their strive of the model 3 production at the right time, there could be tens if not hundreds of thousands of vehicles during that 18 month window for rebates.
Just my humbling opinion...but logically it makes sense to me.
G
I believe it's North America first. So while US May get cars first, it would imply Canafa and Mexico would follow.
Hahahaha, right. Maybe the most fair option is then the tax credit goes to who ordered first, not who gets delivery first. Not sure if that's possible with the tax credit, though.
doublejj
Member
Because Elon said they would start with highly optioned west coast cars first.....=batch
right, right that is a priority, a type, and a start of production. From there, what is end of production or volume of this "batch".
Nobody's mentioned this yet, but I strongly doubt there will be any announcement of the rumored Model Y until the M3 is in production, unless the Y would be delivered at about the same time, or be a totally different sort of vehicle as to not compete with the 3. This is Elon Musk we're talking about, not Adam Osborne. (Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
Common practice in manufacturing, particularly with complex products. The Tesla assembly lines have to be adjusted to build each variant of car, so similarly equipped cars are produced in batches. Then they stop the line, adjust, and then produce a different variation.
Hmm, may be common practice but I never heard of it. I toured a local BMW factory and the wildly different configured cars were definitely not "batched" in this manner. For example, the right and left hand drives, base/performance engines, 2WD/4WD, colors, wheels, etc were being randomly assembled on the same line, with absolutely zero line delay.
I guess the batching question is in the context of the Model 3 delivery schedule discussed in this thread, where people were inferring their notion of "batches" would somehow demarcate a regional delivery schedule. That begs the question of how that would work.
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
Zenmaster, I toured that plant and was surprised at the apparently random mix of versions and colors. The BMW plant is state of the art. Tesla should be even more so. Having said that are there any limits in Tesla's plant since it was a Toyota/GM plant?
FloridaJohn
Member
Typically, automotive assembly plants are completely re-worked with the introduction of each new model (i.e., factory is gutted and new machines brought in). So I would doubt there is anything left over from Toyota or GM at this point.
I just signed up today, April 11th...I have a prius plug in and am addicted to driving in the HOV lane by myself. The green stickers expire at the end of 2018, and I expect a new program from California to kick in. I am expecting the min vehicle will be full electric with a range over 150 miles...
So, you think I will get mine before January 2019 ?
So, you think I will get mine before January 2019 ?
FloridaJohn
Member
I'm not Zenmaster, but the BMW factory in Greenville, SC has different lines for different style cars (i.e. SUVs on one line, cars on another). Within each line, however, they produce all variants of that vehicle. So left-hand and right-hand cars go down the same line, different option levels, etc. They can even paint each car a completely different color, so they aren't even batching that.
I last toured that facility five years ago, so it might be different now, but I doubt it. I also think that most manufacturers are doing it that way now, but I don't know for sure.
Having no personal experience with either the Tesla or BMW factories, I'm willing to be wrong about my assumption that Tesla's batching was due to production processes. If Tesla's assembly line is indeed tooled to produce "any variation at any time" then perhaps the rationale for batching is based on supply chain or other financial factors?
FloridaJohn
Member
Well, they still may be "batching" based on other reasons. I would assume the main reason is financial (make the most money from each car on the line), but it could also be for other reasons. Things like limited production from suppliers that make it easier to start with fewer available options. Then slotting in the addition components as they become available. For example, the seat vendor may only deliver leather seats for the first few months, and then add in the other materials later. That makes it easier for both Tesla and the vendors to ramp up production while still delivering cars.
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