Anyone currently considering buying FSD post-delivery (Aug 16 price hike)?

[Kognos]

Question is someone self-described. With the impending price hike, who is considering getting in on the FSD bandwagon prior to the price hike announced for Aug 16?

I realize there is a lot of factors involved with a lot of configurations:

• There have been sales before, there might be sales again. But then again, the signs are that this should go up in price in general over the long term. Even if there are sales, I wouldn't really expect it to go below the price we see now (my personal opinion) - so waiting for a sale might be ok but risky.
• You might have AP+EAP so there's not much in it for you except the HW3.0 upgrade ("FSD Computer") which might be fine for current features but not for future.
• Even if FSD Capability does go up in price, as market competitors approach parity with Tesla, competition will then drive the cost down. Granted this is probably years out either way. Also it probably will approach the first point - every vendor will incorporate this into a base cost.
• Some of us might just have gotten Autopilot with a new Tesla and are just wanting new tech to play with and getting in on the fun before it increases. I admit I'm in this boat.
• Some just don't care about FSD - whatever you have might suit you just fine. And that's OK!

I thought about making this a poll but there are far too many choices. Considering this is announced for Aug 16, want to see what people think.

To expand on my points above, I do believe that FSD is still years out, but unlocking features and capabilities is useful. NoAP is situationally useful. At purchase time I thought Autopilot was enough. Now I'm basically looking at this from a practical point of view. If I wanted the idea of FSD and waited until it was more reasonably achievable, I do believe the cost would be greater. So if I were willing to spend the money for that idea, why not do it now?

 

[Big Dog]

For the old flash sale of $2k I'd bite, but that's my limit. (currently have EAP, so upgrade price is $3k).

 

[pdx_m3s]

No. I like $6,000 more than I like a feature that’s in its EARLY infancy and will probably be mediocre at best compared to a human driver (they still haven’t figured out parking lots at 5mph). AP as it is pretty dumb when you step back compare it to a human driver, and all it has to do is stay within the lines and not crash into the car in front of it. Compare that to FSD which will have to do far more complex tasks.

 

[dmurphy]

Question is someone self-described. With the impending price hike, who is considering getting in on the FSD bandwagon prior to the price hike announced for Aug 16?

I realize there is a lot of factors involved with a lot of configurations:

• There have been sales before, there might be sales again. But then again, the signs are that this should go up in price in general over the long term. Even if there are sales, I wouldn't really expect it to go below the price we see now (my personal opinion) - so waiting for a sale might be ok but risky.
• You might have AP+EAP so there's not much in it for you except the HW3.0 upgrade ("FSD Computer") which might be fine for current features but not for future.
• Even if FSD Capability does go up in price, as market competitors approach parity with Tesla, competition will then drive the cost down. Granted this is probably years out either way. Also it probably will approach the first point - every vendor will incorporate this into a base cost.
• Some of us might just have gotten Autopilot with a new Tesla and are just wanting new tech to play with and getting in on the fun before it increases. I admit I'm in this boat.
• Some just don't care about FSD - whatever you have might suit you just fine. And that's OK!

I thought about making this a poll but there are far too many choices. Considering this is announced for Aug 16, want to see what people think.

To expand on my points above, I do believe that FSD is still years out, but unlocking features and capabilities is useful. NoAP is situationally useful. At purchase time I thought Autopilot was enough. Now I'm basically looking at this from a practical point of view. If I wanted the idea of FSD and waited until it was more reasonably achievable, I do believe the cost would be greater. So if I were willing to spend the money for that idea, why not do it now?

If EAP were an option when I bought, I probably would feel differently. But it wasn’t, so the FSD package was an absolute no brainer.

I ended up doing a 400 mile round trip road trip unexpectedly this morning. (Long story.)

Now that I have it — I couldn’t imagine doing such a trip without the features in FSD. Specifically, auto lane change is so natural, so smooth, so useful - that alone makes the FSD purchase worth it. Add in NoA, summon, Autopark etc ...... Any actual FSD features, for me, will be just gravy.

 

[dmurphy]

No. I like $6,000 more than I like a feature that’s in its EARLY infancy and will probably be mediocre at best compared to a human driver.

Funny you say that. I had someone the other day argue that the $5k uplift from the LR AWD to P- was a no brainer. I said I’d rather drop $5k on a trip to Maui with my family; I don’t race or track my car, and the LR AWD is so fast already off the line, I have zero need for the P-. Yet I spent $5k on the FSD package without hesitation.

Thank you for a great perspective check — so easy to forget we all have different needs, wants and desires!

 

[pdx_m3s]

Funny you say that. I had someone the other day argue that the $5k uplift from the LR AWD to P- was a no brainer. I said I’d rather drop $5k on a trip to Maui with my family; I don’t race or track my car, and the LR AWD is so fast already off the line, I have zero need for the P-. Yet I spent $5k on the FSD package without hesitation.

Thank you for a great perspective check — so easy to forget we all have different needs, wants and desires!

Well said! My car is 99% a daily in-town, city surface street commuter that AP can “handle” with the exception of 4 stop light turns. So FSD is of little value to me. I have my reservations about FSD’s ability to handle complex intersections and pull out into 45 mph cross traffic from a stop sign.

 

[cucubits]

What are these flash sales I keep hearing about? Are there real deals like this for FSD from time to time? When were the last ones?

 

[Watts 4 Me]

I paid 3k for autopilot. For what it does,in my opinion it's not worth it. I can see why they give it out for free now.

 

[Kognos]

Now that I have it — I couldn’t imagine doing such a trip without the features in FSD. Specifically, auto lane change is so natural, so smooth, so useful - that alone makes the FSD purchase worth it. Add in NoA, summon, Autopark etc ...... Any actual FSD features, for me, will be just gravy.

I discovered recently that lane change features are available in standard Autopilot but I never noticed because I'm not staring at my screen when I'm changing lanes - I'm trying to look at my really hard to see blind spots. But if you look at the screen, it'll show red for lane changes that aren't viable due to cars and traffic. Not sure how good it is about looking for it, and clearly I can't rely on it blind. I just thought it was interesting that it was there.

But yes, lane change assist is very nice.

I paid 3k for autopilot. For what it does,in my opinion it's not worth it. I can see why they give it out for free now.

It's not free. It's built into the price of the car. You can effectively downgrade your car from SR+ to SR and remove autopilot, amongst other things, but it most definitely isn't free or built in... it's just an addon that they don't allow you to remove easily. But there are threads on this forum of people who have downgraded and gotten refunds, or you can also (special?) order a car without it.

But many people, myself included, think Autopilot really is good for what it does. Would you get FSD and it's related features, or is all of it not viable for you?

Lots of threads about basically stating that FSD "all-in" is 8k.

 

[afadeev]

Question is someone self-described. With the impending price hike, who is considering getting in on the FSD bandwagon prior to the price hike announced for Aug 16?

 

[Kognos]

Well said! My car is 99% a daily in-town, city surface street commuter that AP can “handle” with the exception of 4 stop light turns. So FSD is of little value to me. I have my reservations about FSD’s ability to handle complex intersections and pull out into 45 mph cross traffic from a stop sign.

I'm right there with you buddy. However, I do have faith (for what that's worth, ha!) that HW3.0 has the capability due to the faster frame rate processing to handle visually processing data accurately and faster. So it's really about how fast the software updates can better utilize HW3.0. We shouldn't just rest on the HW2.5 barometer for how well FSD might work, which is pretty poor right now for recognizing landscape and signs.

If you look at the autonomy day video you can already see the newer software clearly has really high fidelity of the surrounding landscape. If that isn't a complete mockup, it's very impressive and I would presume that's HW3.0 with an advanced pre-software release. While I am completely skeptical of how fast we'll see that, it gives me that nugget of hope that it's not a pure pipe dream - just a question of how fast we'll get to even seeing the goalposts.

 

[cucubits]

I discovered recently that lane change features are available in standard Autopilot...

Sadly this is not true for the currently sold cars. I wish it was and it's one of the perks which pushes me to get the FSD package.

With standard AP included in the cars now, you have to disable AP, change lane manually and enable back.

 

[Dan84]

It’s a clever if transparant FOMO tactic that Tesla is using. I initially fell for it but recently updated my order to have FSD removed. In it’s current “beta” state it’s unreliable at best and dangerous at worst. I don’t believe Tesla will make significant advances in the short term and the competition is closing in fast, so a drastic (structural) price increase seems unlikely.

 

[silentcorp]

No. I have EAP and that is more than enough until they actually have a demonstrably good FSD service worth the cash.

 

[pdx_m3s]

It’s a clever if transparant FOMO tactic that Tesla is using. I initially fell for it but recently updated my order to have FSD removed. In it’s current “beta” state it’s unreliable at best and dangerous at worst. I don’t believe Tesla will make significant advances in the short term and the competition is closing in fast, so a drastic (structural) price increase seems unlikely.

Elon’s latest slimy “FOMO” tactic is to buy a Tesla now before they cost $200k and are no longer feasibly purchasable! I about fell over laughing when I saw those tweets.

 

[cucubits]

It’s a clever if transparant FOMO tactic that Tesla is using. I initially fell for it but recently updated my order to have FSD removed. In it’s current “beta” state it’s unreliable at best and dangerous at worst. I don’t believe Tesla will make significant advances in the short term and the competition is closing in fast, so a drastic (structural) price increase seems unlikely.

I feel the same way and I'm about to order a Model 3 but I can't decide if I want to add FSD or not.

- if I wait, it may get more and more expensive and for sure some feature will come which will make me really want it
- if I get it, it's "only" $6k now, but that's a lot of money for a couple semi-working features (I'd really like auto lane change and maybe summon will be fun). I don't care about NoA.

I wish they would sell a middle level package...

 

[MexiCanuck]

I have watched the driving abilities of my parents and parents-in-law deteriorate. They have not seen it, or do not acknowledge it.

I can’t see a rational basis to believe my driving abilities will not deteriorate over time. I anticipate that there will be incremental improvements available to those who have the FSD option. I expect that those improvements will help to offset my diminishment in driving ability so that, even if I fail to recognize or acknowledge my diminishing abilities, they will be offset.

For me, FSD is not so much about improvements in the driving experience as it is about insurance against deterioration of the driving experience.

 

[jvmoore1]

Sadly this is not true for the currently sold cars. I wish it was and it's one of the perks which pushes me to get the FSD package.

With standard AP included in the cars now, you have to disable AP, change lane manually and enable back.

i feel the same way. would love auto lane change and summon, but don't think it is worth 6k

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I kind of wonder whether they are talking about increasing the price because they think they might need to add 2-D scanning radar with better resolution, or other sensors, to make this work adequately well. I still can’t understand why it would become more expensive with time, except for a reason like this - I can’t think of any technology where for the same hardware, the price has increased with time. Who knows though...

Other than that, I guess $3k is too rich for my blood, as I have EAP already. I would probably pay $1.5k or even $2k.

 

[Kognos]

It’s a clever if transparant FOMO tactic that Tesla is using.

What would we be missing out on? I presume you are implying that new features will be enabled in the FSD/HW3 front, and that would be the fear. On that point, you're partially right. No matter what, this car will always be iterated upon and that also correlates to the hardware it is equipped for.

But the cost is going up. I prefer to think about this in the context of what we see in front of us increasing in cost and the potential for new features we don't yet know about. And also FSD eventually.

I initially fell for it but recently updated my order to have FSD removed. In it’s current “beta” state it’s unreliable at best and dangerous at worst.

This is best explained in another thread but "beta" really means that it's not officially released, and thus supported or supportable. As this is level 2 autonomy at best on highways, a human is always in control (or you're to blame for not assuming as such). It doesn't mean that it isn't good for what it does -- Autopilot is really amazing alone for highway trips.

But FSD as the upgrade from Autopilot is really more about HW3.0, NoA, lane change, summon, parking, etc. For those who have EAP I totally get why they wouldn't be interested in upgrading to FSD... it doesn't offer anything directly useful except a "FSD computer" / HW3.0 that doesn't do much right now.

I don’t believe Tesla will make significant advances in the short term and the competition is closing in fast, so a drastic (structural) price increase seems unlikely.

Well, my point here is that the price is already increasing.. After seeing the autonomy video and the advanced software running there, not to mention the self driving that was demoed, I have two thoughts:

1. I don't believe that video was doctored. It was real, and at worst, a crafted controlled route where the city driving operations were better understood and preplanned.
2. It doesn't fill me with confidence that full FSD is coming soon - subjective term - but it does reinforce that the capabilities of detection of environment are closer to reality. We've also seen people with HW3.0 who can lanekeep on two lane roads with no median line for guidance, but yet stay on their side. This is environmental knowledge that is critical to city driving. There is an incredible amount of data that needs to be collected for safety, but as long as the car can see the world and process it quickly and reliably, that's a fantastic start. Current cars don't appear to do that well. HW3.0 seems to bridge the gap.

I see those improvements coming in the short term, like the next year for HW3 equipped cars. In January 2017, Autopilot was introduced and limited to 45mph on highways. Look how far that's come in two years... it's not unreasonable to think that something will be introduced soon for city driving in a similar fashion.

I kind of wonder whether they are talking about increasing the price because they think they might need to add 2-D scanning radar with better resolution, or other sensors, to make this work adequately well. I still can’t understand why it would become more expensive with time, except for a reason like this - I can’t think of any technology where for the same hardware, the price has increased with time. Who knows though...

Other than that, I guess $3k is too rich for my blood, as I have EAP already. I would probably pay $1.5k or even $2k.

I think Elon explained also that this is for the FSD computer retrofit (HW3). If the computer can process video input an order of magnitude faster, then process that data faster, that means it can interpret the environment better, more accurately, etc. At least that's how I perceive it. Sorry, I don't want to reiterate Elon too much here, but he's not wrong when he says we as humans don't need radar/lidar to drive... we just need vision and the capability to process that quickly and accurately. So it's not just a software upgrade for EAP owners.

The radar helps though...