Are you also investing in Tesla?

[immel5]

hmm, just read this pdf-article about Musk:

Download CARElonMusk.pdf - Free Ebooks - PDF Search Engine

he states:"Tesla will definitely be worth north of a billion dollars. If we’ve done well
executing the Model S and our powertrains, maybe up to two billion."

well... Tesla hasn't evene executed the Model S and already is north of two billion?-A sign that the stock is too high?

 

[qwk]

hmm, just read this pdf-article about Musk:

Download CARElonMusk.pdf - Free Ebooks - PDF Search Engine

he states:"Tesla will definitely be worth north of a billion dollars. If we’ve done well
executing the Model S and our powertrains, maybe up to two billion."

well... Tesla hasn't evene executed the Model S and already is north of two billion?-A sign that the stock is too high?

Most stocks trade at more than book value. Especially tech stocks.

NFLX is @36X book right now, although that is considered nosebleed territory.

 

[Lloyd]

Most stocks trade at more than book value. Especially tech stocks.

NFLX is @36X book right now, although that is considered nosebleed territory.

GM is 1.85 X book today

 

[benji4]

Book value doesn't mean all that much for a company like Tesla that is very leveraged and will be in ramp-up mode for the foreseeable future. You have to look at what their earnings will be 5, 10 years down the road, and if they succeed with their plan book value will work itself out naturally as assets accumulate. Imagine buying Ford Motor in 1910, for example... it did quite well, but there are 20 other auto companies from that time we'll never hear of that didn't do so well. Investors will either do very well or very poorly with this type of stock.

 

[suxxer]

A new paper from Morgan Stanley Research

What's Changed
Rating Equal-weight to Overweight
Price Target NA to $70.00

View attachment tsla_morgan_stanley.pdf

 

[bolosky]

A new paper from Morgan Stanley Research

What's Changed
Rating Equal-weight to Overweight
Price Target NA to $70.00

View attachment 1548

Is this why TSLA's up $4 (~17%) today, or did something else happen? That's too big of a move for it just to be random.

 

[Tommy]

Is this why TSLA's up $4 (~17%) today, or did something else happen? That's too big of a move for it just to be random.

The stock got boosted by: Stanley's upgrade, the President's speech yesterday on America's need for energy independence and end of quarter buying. At least that's what I think happened

 

[Fr23shjive]

$70 price target by Dec. 2011. I think Elon Musk knows how much he has riding on executing the launch of the Model S on time and will not let anything stop him from achieving that. With most of his fortune tied up in Tesla stock I think he'll make sure it gets done.

 

[Tommy]

$70 price target by Dec. 2011.

24% of the float is shorted. This price target is really going to squeeze the bears.:tongue:

 

[Adm]

I really hope Jim Cramer is one of them...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37834932/Tesla_Motors_Hot_Stock_or_Hot_IPO

 

[JRP3]

Short term Cramer was right, buy the IPO then take profits soon after, watch it drop back down, and get back in. Wish I had done so.

 

[jcstp]

A new paper from Morgan Stanley Research

What's Changed
Rating Equal-weight to Overweight
Price Target NA to $70.00

View attachment 1548

I like page 7! )

 

[JRod0802]

Morgan Stanley Research View attachment 1548

The prevailing market view is that Tesla will be a niche player in a fringe EV market with a high change of failure.

Our view is that Tesla will be a significant player in a more widely adopted EV market with a high change of success.

It's always nice to hear that from a respectable investment firm. :smile:

EDIT (more interesting stuff):

We expect each range option to add approximately $10,000 to the price of the vehicle, putting the 300-mile Model S at approximately $70,000 in the US after Federal subsidies and before options packages.

Considering the "We expect", this paragraph was probably written before Tesla announced pricing for the battery packs. That being said, good call Morgan Stanley Research team!

 

[Eberhard]

take TESLA share as an option. If Elon is successful, the shareprice will burst like Apple oder Microsoft before

 

[immel5]

nice read, but as far as i know morgan stanley is an initial investor of tesla...

 

[benji4]

take TESLA share as an option. If Elon is successful, the shareprice will burst like Apple oder Microsoft before

Unfortunately this won't happen because Tesla started out with a pretty high market cap in the first place giving it much, much less to grow even in the most ideal scenario. With Microsoft, for example, anyone who invested in the first couple years after the company went public would have made 100's of times their intial investment.

In the case of Tesla, the company already sports a market cap of $2.5 billion, and even if it hits Morgan Stanley's target price you'd be merely trippling your money. A great investment by any measure, but not nearly the upside of an Apple or Microsoft for investors who got into those stocks early on. These days, a lot of the big bucks have been made well before a company will go public.

Here's what you could have done with an early investment in Microsoft:

MSFT Sept. 1, 1986: 10 cents per share (split adjusted)
MSFT Dec. 1, 1999: $60 per share
price change = 600x !!!

Telsa's mcap would have to hit $1.5 trillion to match that return (10x the current mcap of Toyota). One of the big problem with IPOs these days is they come out of the blocks with already high mcaps giving them with much less room to appreciate.

 

[Eberhard]

#benji4: I fear your right, but i see Tesla can grow where GM is today after bankruptcy.

 

[benji4]

#benji4: I fear your right, but i see Tesla can grow where GM is today after bankruptcy.

It's definately possible and I truly hope so! Worst case I think Tesla will get taken out by another car company for likely double or more the current share price, but it would be so much better to see them go it alone and become a major player in the auto industry.

 

[Eberhard]

Tesla, as an start up has a very lean and cost effective structure. This will go after a take over, resulting in higher prices.

 

[Nik]

Tesla, as an start up has a very lean and cost effective structure. This will go after a take over, resulting in higher prices.

Not necessarily. Anyone looking to buy Tesla would have to convince themselves that they could make the company worth more than they would have to pay for it. Any additional overhead would have to be offset by lower costs resulting from access to volume discounts or by increasing sales through accessing the purchasers dealer network.

In the short and medium-term, 'buy' is not the same as 'integrate'. I work for a $20Bn company, but we occasionally buy up $20M firms to access their technology. Those businesses are pretty much left to run themselves unless there's a real reason not to.