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I don't know, hard to say. I know DaveT predicts a pretty agressive ramp in demand for Gen3. I won't mind if he turns out to be right, and there is certainly room to grow, share to steal from the BMW 3, the Audi A3, etc.... but, what we have seen over the past couple of decades was a concentration of car brands into a few dozen big groups. BMW may be the only exception that can be profitable in the long run having their feet in only 1 market segment. Audi is part of VW, who make everything from Skodas to Lambos, from Porches to MAN trucks, and generally speaking all big brands try to offer a range of cars from cheap affordable to luxury. Even Mercedes tried that with the Chrysler marriage.
I wouldn't mind Tesla becoming a Tesla Group and selling their own affordable range under a sub-brand or even venturing into, or co-creating drivetrains for trucks and buses once the battery tech permits in, say, a decade. After all, even if others play catch up well, they may keep a technological leadership, an edge for a longer period if they play their hand right. If anyone, they should be able to produce 15-20k EVs first.
Having said that, with 100-150k demand for S/X (i do expect X to become stronger than S), and 350-500k Gen3 it wouldn't take much to get there. I think the Gern3 SUV has the possibility to be at least as big as Gen 3 alone (that small SUV class is all the rage now...), and if they release a new roadster on that platform, we should be way above 1 mill. Maybe in as little as the next 6-8 years if that small crossover comes by 2020.
The more interesting question is, how could Tesla turn into the 10-15 million juggernaut it could become if it keeps that edge, that leadership? 1 luxury brand won't be enough for that.
"BMW doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with Tesla on battery technology in order to produce a compelling "mostly" EV. They need to get close enough, and by my observations, they already have all the pieces."
well for a single data point, BMW wanted $7,200 for a tuneup on my kid's mini: oxygen sensors,lights, misc, misc, some other engine stuff. this to pass emissions test in Md. i'm looking at TCO and any ICE in a vehicle needs $$ maintenance and BMW has gold leaf level
well for a single data point, BMW wanted $7,200 for a tuneup on my kid's mini: oxygen sensors,lights, misc, misc, some other engine stuff. this to pass emissions test in Md. i'm looking at TCO and any ICE in a vehicle needs $$ maintenance and BMW has gold leaf level
Jack, I am torn. The moat for a compelling EV, battery tech, drivetrain and firmware for both car and battery is large. But, to many people a hybrid which might give an electric range of 80-100 and an engine for longer trips 'may' be a compelling competition for the S, X and Gen III. I bought the S because I wanted to transform to EVs over time because of my feeling that I had some responsibility for the environment for me, my child and future generations. Will others believe that they are doing 'good' by getting off an ICE to a hybrid? Saving a ton of money (and the environment) on their daily commutes/kids activities and only rarely needing the gas engine and expense that comes with it for long distance travel. I wrestle with this question as my heart tells me we should all aspire to EVs but my head says I am not so sure.
I believe in Elon, JB, et al., and the TM mission. I just question whether all of us on TMC, and a few hundred thousand that want/can afford the Gen III worldwide are in the minority.
Maybe today, but not for much longer. Ask yourself why that ER would be compelling? The only reason I can think of would be to address historical pure EV weaknesses: range and charge time.
At 200 plus miles, range isn't much of a weakness anymore. I've had gas cars without much more range than that. So all that's left is charge time. In 2020, what do you think charge times will look like? Slower than gas barring swaps, but that time gap is going to get small enough that it's no longer compelling to address it.
Anything that's compelling about an ER today is going to fade to obsolete fairly rapidly over the next decade.
What I'd like to see - Development of the Gen 3 crossover platform simultaneous to Gen 3 sedan. Can you imagine the press conference in 2015 when they do a reveal on Gen 3 and everyone is looking for this cute sedan and they roll out an awesome sedan AND an awesome small SUV. Blast-off.
I also see dramatic demand for this couplet of Gen 3 and Gen crossover. We keep hearing about it competing with the BMW 3 series, but think about how wide a demographic is buying the Model S - sure, S-Class, E-Class, 7-Series, 5-Series, A7, S7 and and Panamera owners, but also Prius owners, Volt owners, and Insight owners. What do we think will happen when the price is 35K (+add ons) and you're once again attracting S-Class owners, a whole lot more Prius owners, Focus owners, Fit owners, etc.? Katie bar the door.
We may be a random sample of one, and bad parents, but when our 12 and 13 year old kids come asking for a car in 4 years, there's NO WAY I am buying them a used, gas ANYTHING. It's either nothing or a Gen 3 sedan or crossover.
I think this guy who said Tesla would be at $1,149/share in 2019 is looking pretty smart right now.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
I also see dramatic demand for this couplet of Gen 3 and Gen crossover. We keep hearing about it competing with the BMW 3 series, but think about how wide a demographic is buying the Model S - sure, S-Class, E-Class, 7-Series, 5-Series, A7, S7 and and Panamera owners, but also Prius owners, Volt owners, and Insight owners. What do we think will happen when the price is 35K (+add ons) and you're once again attracting S-Class owners, a whole lot more Prius owners, Focus owners, Fit owners, etc.? Katie bar the door.
We may be a random sample of one, and bad parents, but when our 12 and 13 year old kids come asking for a car in 4 years, there's NO WAY I am buying them a used, gas ANYTHING. It's either nothing or a Gen 3 sedan or crossover.
I think this guy who said Tesla would be at $1,149/share in 2019 is looking pretty smart right now.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
That's the value proposition in a nutshell. EREVs like the Volt and the i3 ReX tend to drive more electric only miles than the low milage BEVs* That's because of the presence of the gas backup means one can push the BEV range to the limit, rather than needing to leave a cushion "just in case". So if the goal is to use less gasoline, even a "40" mile Volt EREV appears to do that better than the "100" mile BEV. If the goal is to get off gasoline, then we need 200+mile BEVs and a fast charging/swapping infrastructure. Only Tesla seems interested in the latter.
*Source: Chevy Volt Owners Drive More Electric Miles Than Nissan Leaf Drivers: Why?
I lived through the disruption of Ma Bell, and the transition from Mainframe computers to PCs. I dated a woman in the early 90s that had a Flintstones looking cell phone. I bought an Apple Mac to support my son's college film production efforts, astonished at it complete reliability and lack of viruses I failed to buy Apple stock.
My argument for Tesla is the "Internet Age Attention Span". Today's generation expects technical evolution at a greater speed than my generation could imagine. They want gratification immediately.
The "Millenial Generation" will not only embrace the transformation, they will demand it.
My argument for Tesla is the "Internet Age Attention Span". Today's generation expects technical evolution at a greater speed than my generation could imagine. They want gratification immediately.
The "Millenial Generation" will not only embrace the transformation, they will demand it.
There's also the concept of a "bridge technology". Fred Wilson (from avc.com) explains in his blog post from a few years ago:
"When the tech landscape changes; from web browsers to mobile browswers, from flash to HTML5, from laptops to tablets, from typing on keyboards to typing on screens, from local storage to cloud storage, there are always companies that are started to solve the pain points that crop up from that technology change.
I call these "bridge technologies" because they bridge from one technology to another. I don't like to invest in companies built upon these bridge technologies. Most of the time they do really well while the transition pain is high but once most individuals and enterprises have made the change, their business slowly disappears.
I call these "bridge technologies" because they bridge from one technology to another. I don't like to invest in companies built upon these bridge technologies. Most of the time they do really well while the transition pain is high but once most individuals and enterprises have made the change, their business slowly disappears.
There is a chance that they can use that brief period of time to pivot into something with a lasting differentiation and value prop, or that they can build a large enough user base and figure out how to provide additional value to that user base before the initial bridge technology loses its luster.
But from my experience very few bridge technology compaies successfully make those kinds of moves that lead to lasting sustainable value. More often than not, these bridge businesses are not successful investments and very seldom are they the top performing investments in a venture fund.
Bridges are rarely good things in the venture business."
Range-extended EVs and hybrids are "bridge technologies" in my opinion. They are only here and serve a purpose because EVs haven't matured yet to the point they need to be at (with costs and range). But it will take time for EVs to mature (mostly advances in battery tech/costs), so I don't doubt that range-extended EVs, hybrids, etc will serve their role for quite a few years to come. It's just isn't a lasting, long-term role.
Netflix was both the bridge and the disrupter. Disks-through-the-mail because it was a better operation that Blockbuster, but they also saw that streaming was the future. Wish I had bought more netflix.
Spot on that REX is a bridge. (more examples: Zip drives, Quasar works-in-a-drawer TV's). Lots of people will realize that ditching REX maintenance is a huge advantage. Part of the reason that people are not recognizing that right now is that the small BEV fleet isn't really old enough to have demonstrated that they are actually more reliable, instead of merely theoretically more reliable. People will get it. I have been continually surprised at how many working class people find out I spent 6 figures on a BEV and their first comment is "well yeah, but after you figure 10 years of gas cost savings it isn't that bad at all".
Also, all it takes is one oil supply dustup to create a keen and everlasting interest in solar and BEV cars. TSLA stock and cars come bundled with energy price futures. If oil doubled tomorrow TSLA does too. I for one am more comfortable taking a bearish position on the oil regions of the world.
Spot on that REX is a bridge. (more examples: Zip drives, Quasar works-in-a-drawer TV's). Lots of people will realize that ditching REX maintenance is a huge advantage. Part of the reason that people are not recognizing that right now is that the small BEV fleet isn't really old enough to have demonstrated that they are actually more reliable, instead of merely theoretically more reliable. People will get it. I have been continually surprised at how many working class people find out I spent 6 figures on a BEV and their first comment is "well yeah, but after you figure 10 years of gas cost savings it isn't that bad at all".
Also, all it takes is one oil supply dustup to create a keen and everlasting interest in solar and BEV cars. TSLA stock and cars come bundled with energy price futures. If oil doubled tomorrow TSLA does too. I for one am more comfortable taking a bearish position on the oil regions of the world.
THIS. ReX and Hybrids are so complex compared to EVs - half the ingenuity of the Tesla/BEV design is the extreme simplicty. Can you imagine all the increased maintenance costs and room for things to break when you combine a full ICE drivetrain, a full BEV drivetrain and add a complex system to make the work together?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd just like to see the Gen3 come on time, at $35K base price, and with fewer bugs than the S, thank you. That will be "blast-off" enough.
The point of failure in a Prius is actually the inverter coolant pump, but they have otherwise proven extremely reliable. The engine does less and the system avoids extremes on he battery and motors. The Gen 3 Prius also eliminated the timing belt which means that you're really just left with oil changes and maybe preventative transaxle fluid changes. The rest is normal vehicle wear. There is no problem of hybrid complexity. A power split transmission is actually quite simple, and replaces a conventional transmission, the alternator is eliminated, and the added components are ones you'd find in any EV. The problem is cost. The key reliability benefit of pure BEV is eliminating scheduled maintenance, which is a cost and convenience benefit.
when in doubt go back to first principles - a BEV + single gear transmission is vastly less complex than ICE or a hybrid. Not just ongoing maintenance, but very likely longevity as well. I would not be surprised to see Model S with 300,000+ miles in a few years.
I'm hoping to drive my S for 15-20 years, but I do have concerns on parts. I know earlier VINs have parts that are different. My P2310 apparently has headlight bits that have since been changed and I really worry that there won't be any replacements available for my early model in 5-10 years. When I had to have my headlight replaced a few months ago, the wait time on that older part was already pretty long and the repair shop found a used one that seemed practically brand new.
I'd heard parts are required for 10 years, but it appears to only be for as long as the warranty, which is 4 years. I did buy the extended warranty, but I don't think that qualifies as I think that's basically a form of insurance.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Along these lines, I anticipate a cottage industry springing up in ~10 years of small companies that redo/refresh the interior of Model S's. The dynamic being that we wear out the insides of the car faster than we wear out the rest of the car
Dont worry, I suspect in 10-20 years when It becomes more clear that Tesla will dominate the entire auto industry your car will become a collectible and you won't want to drive it much or could sell it to someone else for much more than you paid.
I'm not too worried about other manufacturers making cars superior to those of Tesla. Even if Teslas are the 2nd or 3rd best cars out there, they would be so well ahead of existing ICE cars. A more compelling EV would more likely damage sales of ICE cars and open people's eyes to Teslas that Tesla would still capture a huge market share. The superior car would take market share from other ICE's while Tesla still would sell every car it could make. Tesla would still be well positioned to be a leader in the new, growing EV industry.
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