Attempting to price out options for Model 3

[SageBrush]

I think I will spend up to a maximum of $45k for the base car plus SC, D, and weather package. Less $ is always welcome.
I might waffle on the seats if they are fantastic and I think I am getting a great price. Hah!

 

[John W. Ratcliff]

I agree, consumers understand that if the 'base price' of a vehicle is some number, then the price you will pay to actually drive it off the lot is always going to be inflated 'somewhat'. But, doubling or tripling the price? That's simply insanity. All of the options possible should be no more than about 15k max; and that would be with every bell and whistle possible. To get a reliable decent base model should never be more than 5k over the minimum 'base price' specified.

The majority of the people who put money down on a Model 3 can only afford 'about a 35k car'. A 45k car is already out of the price range that most people could handle.

 

[SageBrush]

I agree, consumers understand that if the 'base price' of a vehicle is some number, then the price you will pay to actually drive it off the lot is always going to be inflated 'somewhat'. But, doubling or tripling the price? That's simply insanity. All of the options possible should be no more than about 15k max; and that would be with every bell and whistle possible. To get a reliable decent base model should never be more than 5k over the minimum 'base price' specified.

The majority of the people who put money down on a Model 3 can only afford 'about a 35k car'. A 45k car is already out of the price range that most people could handle.

Look at the price spread in other sports-y cars on the market. It is a whole lot more than $15,000.

 

[John W. Ratcliff]

>>Look at the price spread in other sports-y cars on the market. It is a whole lot more than $15,000

Other 35k family sedans have that big of a price spread? I don't think so, unless you are talking super high end options. It sounds like just to drive a usable Model-3 you are going to be at a 20k premium at a minimum; that's without anything fancy just the basics everyone would want and expect. That's not a 35k car, then it's a 55k car.

 

[SageBrush]

just the basics everyone would want and expect

You are too quick to speak for everyone.

 

[JeffK]

Let's not forget that the BMW 3 series ranges from $34k all the way up to the spec'd out sport sedan version the M3 which with options can top $90k.

The D means something completely different 'round my parts (pun intended).

Oh you know you want the D!

 

[tashtibet]

What about delivery/documentation cost? Will M3 cost little less due to mass delivery compared to Model S & X?

 

[juanmedina]

If these price estimates are anywhere near close, I can hear the sound of hundreds of thousands of Model-3 pre-orders being cancelled. Including my own! I will just wait two years and buy a used one after the sucker who paid these absurd prices realizes just how big of a depreciation hit they are going to eat.

Agreed. Way too much for me.

 

[Canuck]

I think the chart looks about right to me. To think that a fully optioned Model 3 will only be $15k more is wishful thinking in the extreme.

If these price estimates are anywhere near close, I can hear the sound of hundreds of thousands of Model-3 pre-orders being cancelled. Including my own!

The people posting here, like you, like things like upgraded paint, next-gen seats, upgraded wheels, etc. That's why you're on a Tesla forum. But you're in the tiny minority. The vast majority of people don't care about things like that. If you read down that list of options, the masses probably only care about AP and SC -- and the D for cold weather climates. My mother has one reserved (she's the masses, as I see it) and I could never convince her of the need for most of those options.

I will just wait two years and buy a used one after the sucker who paid these absurd prices realizes just how big of a depreciation hit they are going to eat.

Sucker here.

I bought my S85 2.5 years ago, (just before AP) and I have taken a huge hit in depreciation -- likely far greater than a loaded Model 3 buyer will take in that time span. I've had a great 2.5 years with my car (years that I'll never get back) and I still look forward to driving it every day. I also don't look at my vehicle as an investment. I look at my investments as investments. There's a ton of "suckers" out there like me chomping at the bit to buy a fully loaded Model 3 and depreciation isn't a concern. I'm only 50 but still my days on this earth are limited. I've worked really hard and I can't take it with me. If I'm a sucker for not waiting a couple of years to buy someone else's used but loaded Model 3, so I can save on depreciation, then call me "Sucker Canuck" since that's never going to happen. I want my fully loaded Model 3 now!

The base model, with or without a few options, will still be a great car, but if you can afford it, join the sucker club. It's fun!

 

[SageBrush]

like me chomping at the bit to buy a fully loaded Model 3 and depreciation isn't a concern.

Cheers!

I'm always surprised by the Ratcliffe's of the world that bite the hand that feeds them.

 

[JeffK]

What about delivery/documentation cost? Will M3 cost little less due to mass delivery compared to Model S & X?

Hahaha ... no

 

[wallet.dat]

Also remember that Elon said he expected an average selling price of $42,000 for a Model 3.

Using your figures, that would be a base M3 + 2-3 options or a stripped 60kWH model.

If the numbers from model3tracker.info are anywhere close to accurate, and given Elon's forecast is in the ballpark, we can reasonably estimate that $42K represents something roughly spec'd out to a Model 3 75D (AWD, but non-Performance/Ludicrous). In order for the OP's price prediction to be believable, Performance+Ludicrous options would have to cost $64K by themselves.

 

[ummgood]

I want a loaded car for the most part. I could give up P and ludicrous if needed and only want to spend 60k max (Before tax incentive). I want leather, sunroof, paint, supercharger, upgraded battery, auto pilot, dual motor, premium interior (with ventilation hopefully), upgraded sound. wheels, tow hitch, and air suspension. If I can't get that under 60k then I am cancelling. If I can get the P for that I would be ecstatic.

I honestly want a nice well equipped car that will be good for the next 10 years because I need to keep it while I pay for college for 3 kids. If the cost is insane on the car then I'll have to go with a decent Lexus RX or GS or something like that which I could get trimmed out for less than 60k.

 

[melindav]

I agree, I think all his numbers are on the high side. This is to be a car to be within reach of the masses, and I don't think it comes across that way with pricing like that.

nobody is being forced to add options. The car is still $35k for those not wanting to spend more than that.

 

[MiamiNole]

Sucker here.

I bought my S85 2.5 years ago, (just before AP) and I have taken a huge hit in depreciation -- likely far greater than a loaded Model 3 buyer will take in that time span. I've had a great 2.5 years with my car (years that I'll never get back) and I still look forward to driving it every day. I also don't look at my vehicle as an investment. I look at my investments as investments. There's a ton of "suckers" out there like me chomping at the bit to buy a fully loaded Model 3 and depreciation isn't a concern. I'm only 50 but still my days on this earth are limited. I've worked really hard and I can't take it with me. If I'm a sucker for not waiting a couple of years to buy someone else's used but loaded Model 3, so I can save on depreciation, then call me "Sucker Canuck" since that's never going to happen. I want my fully loaded Model 3 now!

The base model, with or without a few options, will still be a great car, but if you can afford it, join the sucker club. It's fun!

I started to disagree with this post after the first sentence, but then you started speaking my language. I'm relatively young and am only on my 3rd car, and my first one which I bought new. I don't look at cars as an investment either. I drove my first car into the ground at over 180k miles on it. I drove my second car into the ground and then instead of trading it in for my next car purchase, I gave it to my little brother in college, and he drove it further into the ground. I had all intentions of keeping my current car indefinitely until I found about the Model 3. And the main reason I'm jumping on the Model 3 early is to take advantage of the EV tax credit. Otherwise, I'd be in no rush whatsoever to buy the Model 3 until I needed a new car (cost of repairs approach what it would cost to purchase a new car). I plan on holding on to my Model 3 well after I am done paying for it, so the "depreciation hit" matters far less to me. Sure, I can avoid the depreciation by waiting to buy used, but then I'd have to factor in not being able to utilize the tax credit.

I haven't even begun talking about the added value of actually having the Tesla earlier. Carpe diem.

 

[MiamiNole]

The people posting here, like you, like things like upgraded paint, next-gen seats, upgraded wheels, etc. That's why you're on a Tesla forum. But you're in the tiny minority. The vast majority of people don't care about things like that. If you read down that list of options, the masses probably only care about AP and SC -- and the D for cold weather climates. My mother has one reserved (she's the masses, as I see it) and I could never convince her of the need for most of those options.

I DO have to disagree with you here though. Car options aren't just for enthusiasts. People buy as much as they can afford, regardless of what type of car they are buying. I don't think Tesla is in that much of a unique situation here. Sure, there are people that are simply buying it because it is the best EV option out and that don't care about the added bells and whistles. But there still will be plenty of everyday consumers who want a Tesla because it's a cool car and will want all the typical creature comforts they can afford (and this goes for ay car... leather seats, upgraded sound system, navigation, sun roof, etc.).

 

[Canuck]

I DO have to disagree with you here though. Car options aren't just for enthusiasts. People buy as much as they can afford, regardless of what type of car they are buying. I don't think Tesla is in that much of a unique situation here. Sure, there are people that are simply buying it because it is the best EV option out and that don't care about the added bells and whistles. But there still will be plenty of everyday consumers who want a Tesla because it's a cool car and will want all the typical creature comforts they can afford (and this goes for ay car... leather seats, upgraded sound system, navigation, sun roof, etc.).

My point wasn't that options are only for car enthusiasts. It was that most people are perfectly fine with a few options but don't need a fully optioned out car. When I bought my Tesla I got leather, sunroof, tech package, dual chargers, etc. and the price went up accordingly. People will do that with the Model 3 just like...

Let's not forget that the BMW 3 series ranges from $34k all the way up to the spec'd out sport sedan version the M3 which with options can top $90k.

But to think...

If these price estimates are anywhere near close, I can hear the sound of hundreds of thousands of Model-3 pre-orders being cancelled.

People will pick and chose the options they want and can afford but getting a fully loaded one will likely come close to breaking 6 figures. If it didn't, Model S sales would crash.

It's only my opinion. I hope I'm wrong and I can get a fully loaded Model 3 for $50k. That would be great. I just don't see it happening and see it as wishful thinking brought on by cognitive dissonance on the part of those who do.

 

[Lem89]

I don't know where OP got his numbers from but common sense says he is way off. The base Model S is $66k while a spec'd out P90D is $130k, nearly double the base price. Similarly a base Model X is $74k while the highly optioned is around $135k, again double the base. So it follows that the Model 3 will be priced similarly, $35k base and $70k for all bells and whistles. Otherwise they'll be eating into their own market if they're making another luxury sedan in the 100k range.

 

[Canuck]

I don't know where OP got his numbers from but common sense says he is way off. The base Model S is $66k while a spec'd out P90D is $130k, nearly double the base price. Similarly a base Model X is $74k while the highly optioned is around $135k, again double the base. So it follows that the Model 3 will be priced similarly, $35k base and $70k for all bells and whistles.

You might be right but I don't see that as making the OP's numbers way off - just off. Get rid of the fourth column or make the third column the performance one and we're into your numbers. I just don't see a fully loaded one being $15k more, or $50k, as some people here think.

Otherwise they'll be eating into their own market if they're making another luxury sedan in the 100k range.

I don't get your reasoning here. I see it the other way around. If you can get a fully loaded performance Model 3 for $70k you're eating into your own market since that would be cutting into Model S sales. At $90 to $100k -- then you've got those people looking to pay that for a Model 3, also looking at the Model S instead -- so you keep both S and 3 sales alive and well.

 

[Lem89]

You might be right but I don't see that as making the OP's numbers way off - just off. Get rid of the fourth column or make the third column the performance one and we're into your numbers. I just don't see a fully loaded one being $15k more, or $50k, as some people here think.



I don't get your reasoning here. I see it the other way around. If you can get a fully loaded performance Model 3 for $70k you're eating into your own market since that would be cutting into Model S sales. At $90 to $100k -- then you've got those people looking to pay that for a Model 3, also looking at the Model S instead -- so you keep both S and 3 sales alive and well.

But exactly, who is looking to pay that for a Model 3? Those people are already buying Model S. If Tesla wants to sell a lot of M3 with options, $90-100k fully optioned won't work. The S/X will stay alive because I think Musk said they will continue to be the premium brand, having the latest features, advances, and larger batteries as standard.