Attempting to price out options for Model 3

[Canuck]

But exactly, who is looking to pay that for a Model 3? Those people are already buying Model S.

Me, to name one. There's a lot of us who own a Model S/X and have reserved Model 3's. The Model S is great but it's huge. I want a small, fast, electric car to zip around in (in addition to my Model S). The Model S/X don't meet that bill. I would love a new Roadster rather than the Model 3 but they are not going to make them again for some time and I don't want to wait. The older Roadsters are great but they don't really interest me since I want Supercharging and AP. There's more of us out there than you may think. If they make a Model 3 for $70k with ludicrous and everything else, they will really hurt Model S sales. But in this debate, I sure hope you are correct. Something tells me I'll be paying about $90k plus though for a fully loaded one.

 

[JeffK]

Me, to name one. There's a lot of us who own a Model S/X and have reserved Model 3's. The Model S is great but it's huge. I want a small, fast, electric car to zip around in (in addition to my Model S). The Model S/X don't meet that bill. I would love a new Roadster rather than the Model 3 but they are not going to make them again for some time and I don't want to wait. The older Roadsters are great but they don't really interest me since I want Supercharging and AP. There's more of us out there than you may think. If they make a Model 3 for $70k with ludicrous and everything else, they will really hurt Model S sales. But in this debate, I sure hope you are correct. Something tells me I'll be paying about $90k plus though for a fully loaded one.

I think a better question is why would they particularly care if Model S/X sales declined? I'm sure there are still going to be rich people/beta testers willing to try out brand new features months before everyone else or those who like the little things like the presenting door handles etc.

Competition is going to explode in the next five years with affordable EVs. There's no reason to hold back.

 

[Zaphod]

I don't know where OP got his numbers from but common sense says he is way off. The base Model S is $66k while a spec'd out P90D is $130k, nearly double the base price. Similarly a base Model X is $74k while the highly optioned is around $135k, again double the base. So it follows that the Model 3 will be priced similarly, $35k base and $70k for all bells and whistles. Otherwise they'll be eating into their own market if they're making another luxury sedan in the 100k range.

I agree. I used the same logic back earlier in this thread and seems to be more realistic to me anyways. I came up with about 2.4X from base to fully loaded now with the P100DL. This puts my best guess on fully loaded Model 3 at ~85K. This seems to correlate similarly to BMW with the 3 series from base to M3 version.

 

[melindav]

for those rationalizing that the S/X top out at 2x the base price so the Model ☰ should also (or less) are then assuming the options will be half the price (or less than half) of the price of the same option of the S/X, right?
Personally, I am planning on choosing 3-4 options + AP/SC and expect the options to be maybe slightly less (75%?) the price of them on the S/X and the AP/SC to be the same. I want leather, but don't want a cheap version that's ½ the quality of the leather upgrade on the S/X. Same with the other options I'm planning on - I expect them to be Tesla S/X quality options and so expect to pay that, and not get them for a deal because they are going on a car that's cost starts half of what the S/X is at.

 

[dsvick]

Me too

View attachment 191545

Well, would you look at that. Thanks.

 

[msanborn08]

Lets also not forget that they are planning to make 100's of thousands of M3's compared to 10's of thousands S/X's a year. Trying to use S or X metrics with out considering one of the largest contributing factors, volume I think is a mistake.My guess when volume discount is factored is a $75-80k at most for a fully maxed / optioned out M3.

 

[dsvick]

It sounds like just to drive a usable Model-3 you are going to be at a 20k premium at a minimum; that's without anything fancy just the basics everyone would want and expect.

What is so undriveable about the base model? It might not have the options you want, but it will be just fine for a lot of people, that's why they're options.

 

[dsvick]

I don't know where OP got his numbers from but common sense says he is way off. The base Model S is $66k while a spec'd out P90D is $130k, nearly double the base price. Similarly a base Model X is $74k while the highly optioned is around $135k, again double the base. So it follows that the Model 3 will be priced similarly, $35k base and $70k for all bells and whistles. Otherwise they'll be eating into their own market if they're making another luxury sedan in the 100k range.

In doing a quick scan it looks like the OP used mostly the same prices as what the options are for the MS. I think a lot of people are expecting some or most of the M3 options to be less than that. Especialy ones like the premium package and upgraded sound.

 

[SureValla]

What is so undriveable about the base model? It might not have the options you want, but it will be just fine for a lot of people, that's why they're options.

I dont think its necessarily that its un-drivable but rather more that its not worth stretching your wallet to spend 35k for a car that is electric and goes only 215 miles. This is how I view the base 60 kWh S. I could probably stretch my finances to the limit to afford one. I love that its electric but to me its not worth it if you don't have all the fun toys tesla is known for (I could buy 3 prii for that much!).

Note that if you aren't stretching your wallet to pay 35k this is a different story and mindset altogether.

In my mind its not worth buying if you don't spend at least 40,000 (assuming they don't increase the base price which I think is a huge possibility.)

 

[Daliman]

Lets also not forget that they are planning to make 100's of thousands of M3's compared to 10's of thousands S/X's a year. Trying to use S or X metrics with out considering one of the largest contributing factors, volume I think is a mistake.My guess when volume discount is factored is a $75-80k at most for a fully maxed / optioned out M3.

I agree, although we don't have much information the only information from Elon about the costs of options is that they will be less than for the Model S. The margins on high end versions of the S/X are and have to be much higher because they have moderate volume. Tesla is expecting to sell as many Model III's as it can roll of the production line, hopefully ten times more with a couple of years of full production. Both the Freemont factory and the Gigafactory will be in full production and the economies realized from that will be applied across hundreds of thousands of transactions a year. While I don't expect the options to be cheap I think the argument that the upper range will be roughly twice the base price is reasonable.

 

[John W. Ratcliff]

>>The people posting here, like you, like things like upgraded paint, next-gen seats, upgraded wheels, etc. That's why you're on a Tesla forum.

I just wanted to clarify. I'm already a Tesla owner. I drive a 2010 Roadster 2.5 sport. I bought mine after 80k of depreciation was already taken out of the vehicle.

My use case for the Model-3 is not as a sports car, it's as a relatively low cost family daily driver. If I can get that for less than 10k worth of options, I would still keep my reservation. But I'm unlikely to pay more than that.

 

[SureValla]

Hi gang,

I've created a chart to try and outline what I think the costs will be for each Model 3 offering. My gut tells me the Model 3 will run with a 45, 60, and 75 kWh battery as the 3 models, with all the batteries being 75s with the ability to upgrade. I put this together to try and see if getting a Model 3 specced to where I would want it would be better than getting a Model S 60 today. I've made some tweaks to the price of the options based on Elon's feedback and where I think Tesla will price each component.

View attachment 191535

Suggest putting in a line item for tax credit, -7,500

 

[dsvick]

Suggest putting in a line item for tax credit, -7,500

Why? The tax credit has no bearing on the price of your car. In most cases, unless you plan your payroll deductions accrodingly, you won't see any money from until after you've filed your taxes and get a return for the year you get the car. If you get your car in early 2018, you might not see anything until 2019.

And also, there is no guarantee that any specific person will get the credit.

 

[SureValla]

Why? The tax credit has no bearing on the price of your car. In most cases, unless you plan your payroll deductions accrodingly, you won't see any money from until after you've filed your taxes and get a return for the year you get the car. If you get your car in early 2018, you might not see anything until 2019.

And also, there is no guarantee that any specific person will get the credit.

fair enough, perhaps add it with an asterisk saying *must have enough payroll deductions to qualify and must purchase before credits expire

I think any discussion and/or calculation involving an electric car can't ignore this possibility. I plan on using mine to offset the cost of some of those options : )

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think a better question is why would they particularly care if Model S/X sales declined? I'm sure there are still going to be rich people/beta testers willing to try out brand new features months before everyone else or those who like the little things like the presenting door handles etc.

Competition is going to explode in the next five years with affordable EVs. There's no reason to hold back.

Absolutely.
As I keep saying over and over. The competition of the M≡ is not the MS or MX.

The competition of the M≡ is going to be GM, Nissan, Audi, BMW....etc.

So.... I'm going to do whatever I can to promote Tesla - Because they greatly contribute to the protection of my greater objective - The environment.

That's why I also promote SolarEdge which I have on my roof. Click the link in my signature to follow my solar progress. Hopefully you will be inspired also.

My objective - to be as environmental friendly as possible - The cheapest way I can. Right now my panels will produce enough for my house and my M≡ once I get it.

 

[dsvick]

I think any discussion and/or calculation involving an electric car can't ignore this possibility. I plan on using mine to offset the cost of some of those options : )

How are you going to use it offset the options? Are you going to adjust your deductions in the year you think you'll take delivery?

 

[Phthalate]

It's also worth noting that as much as Tesla is a business, their goal is that accelerate sustainable transport quote Elon throws around fairly often.

Whenever I've spoken to Tesla salespeople in stores, it seems their primarily goal is to get gas cars off the roads. Of course they want to make money, but they also want to make a compelling product that you'll want to pick over a cas competitor.

On that note, they're not going to overcharge us up to our eyeballs. They're going to make a great car and price it to compete with other EV's and gas cars.

 

[JeffK]

On that note, they're not going to overcharge us up to our eyeballs. They're going to make a great car and price it to compete with other EV's and gas cars.

... starting with the Model 3

 

[jonnyg]

How are you going to use it offset the options? Are you going to adjust your deductions in the year you think you'll take delivery?

Knowing I'll get $7500 back the next year (assuming you have the income and all) means I'll get some extra options I probably wouldn't get without the tax credit. Could adjust W4 to have less taken out of paychecks, but I'll probably just pull some extra savings and then put it back in after tax time.

 

[Canuck]

I just wanted to clarify. I'm already a Tesla owner. I drive a 2010 Roadster 2.5 sport.

Yes, I see her in your pic and she looks like a beauty!