Attempting to price out options for Model 3

[SureValla]

How are you going to use it offset the options? Are you going to adjust your deductions in the year you think you'll take delivery?

Let's assume everything goes according to schedule and I buy my model 3 in August 2018. I will finance it putting some % down and have a monthly payment to pay it off in 4 years. Come April 2019 I will get an extra 7500 back. I will then dump that 7500 into the loan and my car will be paid off in <4 years.

I have effectively offset 7500 of the purchase price (minus some interest yes) by the time my car is paid off.

 

[Trips]

The numbers look good to me with maybe a 5% change here and there. I really hope that some of the other current option prices drop as the Duel Motor prices are going to. I thought a fully loaded would be $100k.

Changes:
Add Roof Options - Already said
55 and 75 kWh batteries - Both have options to upgrade 10kWh's.
Electrochromic Tint - $1,000 (Maybe standard on full glass roof)
Advanced Internet Service - Free for 2 years with $50/month after. (Standard Vehicle tracking, navigation and updates are still free)
Video Camera - $750 (Front and rear)

 

[flamingoezz]

35K is within reach of the masses. Elon has said that a base M3 will be a very good car -- and in pricing some SUVs lately for my wife, i think it will be. Most car companies are charging you extra for safety features (lane watch, etc), have tiny infotainment systems that are outdated before they leave the lot and are more expensive to power. I agree that at 35K, this will be the best car out there.

What has Elon or Tesla said that makes you think that you're going to pay less for the same features in a S or X (aside from AWD which the OP accounted for in his estimates)? Affordable for the masses doesn't equal free options. Get what M3 you can afford, or buy something else if you think you are getting more for your money -- but I don't think there will be as many cancellations as you say when people look at what their 35-45K gets elsewhere.

I agree, I think all his numbers are on the high side. This is to be a car to be within reach of the masses, and I don't think it comes across that way with pricing like that.

If these price estimates are anywhere near close, I can hear the sound of hundreds of thousands of Model-3 pre-orders being cancelled. Including my own! I will just wait two years and buy a used one after the sucker who paid these absurd prices realizes just how big of a depreciation hit they are going to eat.

 

[dsvick]

Let's assume everything goes according to schedule and I buy my model 3 in August 2018. I will finance it putting some % down and have a monthly payment to pay it off in 4 years. Come April 2019 I will get an extra 7500 back. I will then dump that 7500 into the loan and my car will be paid off in <4 years.

I have effectively offset 7500 of the purchase price (minus some interest yes) by the time my car is paid off.

That's similar to what I'm going to do, but I'll apply whatever credit I get towards some other, higher interest, debt that I should be able to pay off completely at that time. That'll lessen the burden of M3 payments.

 

[CarShipCarrier]

The problem I have with this list is how you have options on the list at a lesser price than what the same option is on Model S. I am pretty sure that if there is an option that exists on the Model S it will be the same cost on the Model 3. The paint will be $1,000 - $1,500 like it is on the site. There ill be three different roof options which will be $1000 - $1500. The wheels will probably go up to 19 inch so the extra will be $2,500. Next Gen seats will be $2,500.

You have to expect the price will be the same for an upgrade. I also feel that there will be 3 batteries as well, but I think the lowest will be bigger than 45 kwh. The reason I say that is because the Model 3 will be made with some materials that are cheaper, yet heavier. I am thinking maybe a 50 or 55 kwh battery to start off the base models and get about 205 - 215 miles per charge. Last thing with the battery... a 75 kwh battery will not have Ludicrous mode. Too much power and the battery will suffer. I feel the Model 3 will top out with a 90 kwh battery or even 100 kwh battery and have ludicrous on those.

There will also be other features coming out between now and the Model 3 being released so those will also add extra money. Features such as heads up display, etc. should be coming to the Model S & X prior to the unveiling of the Model 3 and the 3 will get the same features.

You guys all have to remember that a base model will be $35k, but experts have already said that the average dollar amount of a Model 3 will be above $45k.

Why would Tesla have the same features for a cheaper price? Then no one would be a Model S or X anymore. You have to look at it from a business perspective and not your own wallets. If you want to estimate a price for a Model 3 go to the Tesla website and create a Model S and then subtract $30,000 from it. That is the difference between a base model 3 and a base model S.

 

[Trips]

What has Elon or Tesla said that makes you think that you're going to pay less for the same features in a S or X (aside from AWD which the OP accounted for in his estimates)?

Stop thinking of Tesla as a standard car company. They are a technology company with rapidly reducing costs. Would you pay the same price today for a 2 year old IPhone as when it was new? In 5 years you might be able to get a 100kWh battery for the same price as a 60 kWh today.

 

[Blackout]

Hi gang,

I've created a chart to try and outline what I think the costs will be for each Model 3 offering. My gut tells me the Model 3 will run with a 45, 60, and 75 kWh battery as the 3 models, with all the batteries being 75s with the ability to upgrade. I put this together to try and see if getting a Model 3 specced to where I would want it would be better than getting a Model S 60 today. I've made some tweaks to the price of the options based on Elon's feedback and where I think Tesla will price each component.

View attachment 191535

The D...Hahaha....yep that is one hell expensive D...

 

[SureValla]

That's similar to what I'm going to do, but I'll apply whatever credit I get towards some other, higher interest, debt that I should be able to pay off completely at that time. That'll lessen the burden of M3 payments.

good point it will depend on my interest rate I get for sure!

 

[SureValla]

Just also had a thought, we are assuming a la carte pricing. Its possible Tesla offers packages like most cheaper cars to make manufacturing easier...

 

[Garlan Garner]

The problem I have with this list is how you have options on the list at a lesser price than what the same option is on Model S. I am pretty sure that if there is an option that exists on the Model S it will be the same cost on the Model 3. The paint will be $1,000 - $1,500 like it is on the site. There ill be three different roof options which will be $1000 - $1500. The wheels will probably go up to 19 inch so the extra will be $2,500. Next Gen seats will be $2,500.

You have to expect the price will be the same for an upgrade. I also feel that there will be 3 batteries as well, but I think the lowest will be bigger than 45 kwh. The reason I say that is because the Model 3 will be made with some materials that are cheaper, yet heavier. I am thinking maybe a 50 or 55 kwh battery to start off the base models and get about 205 - 215 miles per charge. Last thing with the battery... a 75 kwh battery will not have Ludicrous mode. Too much power and the battery will suffer. I feel the Model 3 will top out with a 90 kwh battery or even 100 kwh battery and have ludicrous on those.

There will also be other features coming out between now and the Model 3 being released so those will also add extra money. Features such as heads up display, etc. should be coming to the Model S & X prior to the unveiling of the Model 3 and the 3 will get the same features.

You guys all have to remember that a base model will be $35k, but experts have already said that the average dollar amount of a Model 3 will be above $45k.

Why would Tesla have the same features for a cheaper price? Then no one would be a Model S or X anymore. You have to look at it from a business perspective and not your own wallets. If you want to estimate a price for a Model 3 go to the Tesla website and create a Model S and then subtract $30,000 from it. That is the difference between a base model 3 and a base model S.

One of the reasons why I believe that the options on the M3 will be less than on the MS is because they used the MS to pay for the M3's.
The M3's aren't paying for anything else. The purpose of the M3's are going to be mass marked cars ( mass market money).

I believe that after the M3......Tesla will have enough capital to build whatever they want without a need for any other model to have to raise capital for another model.

 

[Alketi]

One of the reasons why I believe that the options on the M3 will be less than on the MS is because they used the MS to pay for the M3's.
The M3's aren't paying for anything else.

Garlan, the Model 3 will be paying for the entire company! As in, literally everything they want to accomplish:

- Current debt
- Future models (Y, truck, bus, semi)
- Future Gigafactories
- Store/Supercharger expansion

I fear the OPs pricing will be close to correct. My guess is that the relatively slim margins of the base model will be offset by higher margins on the upgrades. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Garlan, the Model 3 will be paying for the entire company! As in, literally everything they want to accomplish:

- Current debt
- Future models (Y, truck, bus, semi)
- Future Gigafactories
- Store/Supercharger expansion

I fear the OPs pricing will be close to correct. My guess is that the relatively slim margins of the base model will be offset by higher margins on the upgrades. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I don't think you understand what Elon was saying when HE said ( not me ) that the MS directly paid for the M3. Tesla didn't have any profits to build the M3 from. It was itemized in to the price of the MS. In other words....they allocated money from the MS directly to the M3. Tesla didn't sell MS's and then reach into the bag of profits and use that to fund the M3's. They sold an MS and built in ...lets say..... 19-40% ( I'm guessing here) of the cost of the sale was dedicated to the M3. No MS sales .... No M3. The M3 can be sold at cost....without adding any extra in for another model. They can probably just add their 5%-15% profit in to the M3 and make enough capital to do whatever they want to do in the future.

 

[Justmurr]

Just also had a thought, we are assuming a la carte pricing. Its possible Tesla offers packages like most cheaper cars to make manufacturing easier...

I've thought this as well...only makes sense to lessen the variables by offering predefined packages.

How about a mid-battery / the D / paint/ wheels and seats package?
No more, no less and I'll pay no more than $48k thank you very much. I hope.

 

[WileyTheMan]

They can probably just add their 5%-15% profit in to the M3 and make enough capital to do whatever they want to do in the future.

That said, they would be silly not to charge a hefty percentage for options. Base car, yes, margins will be slim in order to make the car attractive. Once the M3 is out, I think investors will start bearing down on Elon to start turning a profit.

 

[shokunin]

I think most options will be around 50% of the current prices on the S. Some items like the leather seats, air suspension, and auto pilot may be more than 50% of the current cost due to actual costs as well as perceived value. The Auto Pilot option is going to have to fund a large development team and a large insurance liability fund.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

People....wake up! There is absolutely no reason for the options to be "cheaper" on the model 3. Good luck getting a decent Model 3 for under 60K. I am just saying, be prepared, so you won't be disappointed.

 

[Garlan Garner]

People....wake up! There is absolutely no reason for the options to be "cheaper" on the model 3. Good luck getting a decent Model 3 for under 60K. I am just saying, be prepared, so you won't be disappointed.

A decent M3 will be priced at $35K. I trust Elon on that - since a decent MS is actually $60K as he said.

I'm wide awake....listening to what Elon/Tesla says.

 

[ummgood]

People....wake up! There is absolutely no reason for the options to be "cheaper" on the model 3. Good luck getting a decent Model 3 for under 60K. I am just saying, be prepared, so you won't be disappointed.

I am prepared to cancel if the Model 3 is more than 5-10k more than a comparably equipped Lexus IS or BMW 328 I. Yes Tesla's are awesome but getting leather, sunroof, paint, wheels, etc... shouldn't cost more than 45 to 50k with AWD on a normal car. If is more than 60k then I will be cancelling. I just can't justify that no matter how cool the car is.

People keep forgetting that Tesla wants to make A LOT of these cars. If they are going to keep orders in the pipeline a middle range Model S can't be more than 50k. Let's be honest with ourselves. People might say that it competes with the BMW M3 but I don't see many of those here compared to the 328. I think if they want to continue getting 500k sales per year they are going to have to make the price very competitive and the tables at the top of this thread AREN'T.

 

[ummgood]

Let's look at the competition...

Lexus IS 350FSport LOADED - $50,500
BMW 330xi Every check box - $58,000
Audi A4 Premium Plus LOADED - $48,000
Infiniti Q50 Sport AWD LOADED - $55,000 (But you can negotiate these down quite a bit)

All of these cars are either top spec (without going to the extreme engine model like BMW M3) but they have the sport package etc... Plus I don't know how the Audi got so cheap in that. I don't know where the prestige level went so maybe that is why it is so cheap. I am sure you could get them more expensive than that.

That is assuming they can take 500k of these buyers over to the Model 3. Then on top of that there are a lot of people in line that probably would cross shop an Accord or Maxima as potential options.

Don't get me wrong I love Tesla. This is how I set my 60k max price. I want the bigger battery and AWD and I set my limit at 60k. I think this is reasonable. If a loaded Model 3 (without performance or Ludicrous) is over 60k they will have a hard sale with a lot of people. Regardless if you take the Model S option pricing into the equation or not.

Also if you take the majority of luxury car buyers they want common things like Leather or Faux Leather, heated seats, Nav, Premium Sound.

 

[jsrawa]

I am prepared to cancel if the Model 3 is more than 5-10k more than a comparably equipped Lexus IS or BMW 328 I. Yes Tesla's are awesome but getting leather, sunroof, paint, wheels, etc... shouldn't cost more than 45 to 50k with AWD on a normal car. If is more than 60k then I will be cancelling. I just can't justify that no matter how cool the car is.

People keep forgetting that Tesla wants to make A LOT of these cars. If they are going to keep orders in the pipeline a middle range Model S can't be more than 50k. Let's be honest with ourselves. People might say that it competes with the BMW M3 but I don't see many of those here compared to the 328. I think if they want to continue getting 500k sales per year they are going to have to make the price very competitive and the tables at the top of this thread AREN'T.

I agree, those prices will not sell to the masses. Those are luxury prices that the average American will have a hard time spending compared to ICE vehicles. I think to really achieve their goal of bringing the EV to all they will need to price more aggressively.