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Attempting to price out options for Model 3

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I love my solar system. Except my roof is already full, and I was barely coming out at net zero without a Tesla. Gonna have to start paying for electricity again this winter for the Model X. And then when I get a Model 3.... At least the solar will be keeping me out of the higher pricing tiers for electricity.

Does your electric utility offer electric vehicle time-of-use TOU rates? We charge at night at super off peak rates while we sell back unused solar are peak retail rates during the day. Buy low, sell high mentality.
 
Does your electric utility offer electric vehicle time-of-use TOU rates? We charge at night at super off peak rates while we sell back unused solar are peak retail rates during the day. Buy low, sell high mentality.
Nope. They have regular TOU rates, but they aren't really all that much better, and it's unclear if I could even mix them with net metering. And I have a wife and four young kids that are home most the day, so A/C has to stay on. Honestly, I don't know how much longer net metering will last at all here. They tried to kill it in legislature this last year, but didn't quite succeed. I may be looking into a PowerWall soon, just to do some time shifting of usage. And at that point it would be more advantageous to,charge during the day, not the night :).
 
I love my solar system. Except my roof is already full, and I was barely coming out at net zero without a Tesla. Gonna have to start paying for electricity again this winter for the Model X. And then when I get a Model 3.... At least the solar will be keeping me out of the higher pricing tiers for electricity.
Yes indeed.

Maybe some more efficient panels may come out soon and you can swap out some of your panels for more dense ones.
 
Nope. They have regular TOU rates, but they aren't really all that much better, and it's unclear if I could even mix them with net metering. And I have a wife and four young kids that are home most the day, so A/C has to stay on. Honestly, I don't know how much longer net metering will last at all here. They tried to kill it in legislature this last year, but didn't quite succeed. I may be looking into a PowerWall soon, just to do some time shifting of usage. And at that point it would be more advantageous to,charge during the day, not the night :).
Powerwall is certainly an option, however I would have to say that its an expensive option.
 
Already posted this in another thread, but:

Base 60: $66,000
P100DL: 134,500

Difference: 2.04

Now OP's Pricing:

Base M3: $35,000
M375DL: $78,500

Difference: 2.24

It's unlikely that the price difference will be .2 greater than with the Model S. More likely, the cost will be $71,500 for the top-tier M3...and it will include some of the options not included on the base.
 
Yes indeed.

Maybe some more efficient panels may come out soon and you can swap out some of your panels for more dense ones.
I already have 270W panels, as opposed to yours that are what, 210W? More likely we'll move in the next few years, and I'll do a bigger system on the next house, with hopefully a good portion with a better azimuth. (Current system: SolarEdge )
 
Already posted this in another thread, but:

Base 60: $66,000
P100DL: 134,500

Difference: 2.04

Now OP's Pricing:

Base M3: $35,000
M375DL: $78,500

Difference: 2.24

It's unlikely that the price difference will be .2 greater than with the Model S. More likely, the cost will be $71,500 for the top-tier M3...and it will include some of the options not included on the base.
We keep going over the same thing as though no one is reading past posts. We just spent 20 posts going over this.
 
I already have 270W panels, as opposed to yours that are what, 210W? More likely we'll move in the next few years, and I'll do a bigger system on the next house, with hopefully a good portion with a better azimuth. (Current system: SolarEdge )
Yep,,,, it looks like you are doing really well.

Wait... you are doing extremely well. What kind of power is your house using on a daily basis? That's rhetorical, however you must be using at least 4 times the power of my house....I'm producing about 4 times what my home uses on a daily basis....per my net-metering gauge.
 
Already posted this in another thread, but:

Base 60: $66,000
P100DL: 134,500

Difference: 2.04

Now OP's Pricing:

Base M3: $35,000
M375DL: $78,500

Difference: 2.24

It's unlikely that the price difference will be .2 greater than with the Model S. More likely, the cost will be $71,500 for the top-tier M3...and it will include some of the options not included on the base.
Attempting to price out options for Model 3
 
Let's assume everything goes according to schedule and I buy my model 3 in August 2018. I will finance it putting some % down and have a monthly payment to pay it off in 4 years. Come April 2019 I will get an extra 7500 back.

Hi. The full credits won't last that long. When Tesla reaches 200,000 sales in the USA, it triggers a phase out process. This is explained on the following web page. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.

Federal Tax Credits for All-Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Tesla is currently around 84,000 units in the USA. They are expected to reach 200,000 in early November 2017 which means you need to take delivery until 31st March 2018 to receive the full $7,500 tax credits. Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750. This scenario is based on the assumption that there will be at least 50,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017.

However, even if Model 3 is completely delayed, these dates can only be pushed one more quarter because Tesla will reach 200,000 in Q1 2018 with just Model S and X sales. In this scenario, full credits will last until 30th June 2018. Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750. Either way, it doesn't make a difference for Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries. There is 100% chance Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750 federal tax credits and there is 0% chance they will receive $7,500 or $1,875.

If you want to see my detailed calculation, open THIS page and scroll all the way to the right.
 
Last edited:
Hi. The full credits won't last that long. When Tesla reaches 200,000 sales in the USA, it triggers a phase out process. This is explained on the following web page. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.

Federal Tax Credits for All-Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Tesla is currently around 84,000 units in the USA. They are expected to reach 200,000 in early November 2017 which means you need to take delivery until 31st March 2018 to receive the full $7,500 tax credits. Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750. This scenario is based on the assumption that there will be at least 50,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017.

However, even if Model 3 is completely delayed, these dates can only be pushed one more quarter because Tesla will reach 200,000 in Q1 2018 with just Model S and X sales. In this scenario, full credits will last until 30th June 2018. Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750. Either way, it doesn't make a difference for Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries. There is 100% chance Jul, Aug, Sep 2018 deliveries will receive $3,750 federal tax credits and there is 0% chance they will receive $7,500 or $1,875.

If you want to see my detailed calculation, open THIS page and scroll all the way to the right.
Excellent information. Thanks
 
I wonder if summon will be standard? Low speed robotic parking. If you look at the fleet capabilities that this provides... You want that on every single one. This allows the cars to self drive at low speeds in defined environments. It is the first rung on the ladder to autonomy, and allows a lot of the infrastructure to develop... It is a catalyst for infrastructure development. That is something you want on every singe one.
 
When has a new iteration of an Iphone come out at a lower price point with the same features? Iphone 5c had a cheap case, slow processor, etc. Iphone 6 had a smaller screen, worse camera than the 6 plus.

You aren't getting something for free. Will battery costs continue to come down for Tesla....sure. They also have a multi billion dollar factory to pay for expansion of, 4 announced vehicles they need R&D for, never-ending updates on AP to invest in, hundreds of thousands of employees to pay and acquisition of a solar company. All of this helps them stay atop competitors in technology and value, but isn't intended to make you get an Audi quality car at Honda Fit prices. It is intended for you to get better than Audi quality car at Audi prices.


Stop thinking of Tesla as a standard car company. They are a technology company with rapidly reducing costs. Would you pay the same price today for a 2 year old IPhone as when it was new? In 5 years you might be able to get a 100kWh battery for the same price as a 60 kWh today.
 
I wonder if summon will be standard?
No, it will not.

As of today every Model S and X comes with the AP-HW standard, but you have to pay for the AP-package to use anything but the security functions (auto-brake++). And Elon clearly stated in the unveiling that the same will be true for Model 3. And "summon" is not a security function :p
 
I agree, those prices will not sell to the masses. Those are luxury prices that the average American will have a hard time spending compared to ICE vehicles. I think to really achieve their goal of bringing the EV to all they will need to price more aggressively.

I agree! While I don't expect them to get in the range of a loaded Accord or a Maxima I don't think they can appeal to the masses if they are 10-20k above the well equipped best selling cars in america.

I think many people who "look at the competition" will also:

1. Take into account the savings from not buying gas, having oil changes, new brakes, etc.
2. Rebates on EV's.
3. Driving in carpool lanes alone in the vehicle.
4. Ability to charge your car via Solar Panels (free charging from the sun).
5. They are not a "Tesla".

For many people, other than you...

We shall see how it plays out. I agree that people who know about electric cars will do the above. Those are the ones that Tesla, GM (Bolt/Volt), Leaf feed into. However let's be honest. The masses by cars not based on real info. They buy cars based on payment and how shiny it is. Does it have those cupholders for their kids in the back? Does it have leather seats because I have always wanted those.

Don't get me wrong I am an engineer and I appreciate all of those things. I really want this car and am going to stretch to get it. I am just giving a counter argument that Tesla really has to be careful about how they price the options on this car. At my work there are lots of people with lux cars like BMW and Audi. Those folks are either marketing, sales, or managers who either can afford them or care about the prestige. When you look at the average engineer in my company (who all make significantly over 100k/year) you see them driving Camrys, Accords, Maximas, Prius. The middle aged ones have better equipped versions of these cars but they aren't stepping up to lux because of the cost isn't really justifiable. When you can get a loaded Accord for low 30's it is hard to pay 20k more for the same options on an electric. That isn't even accounting for long term reliability and cost of maintenance (which is another negative for lux cars).

These are the masses that have to be willing to buy this car. That is why I hope that Tesla makes the options more reasonable. If adding a handful of options to the car gets the prices to 55k I don't think that will fly. There might be 100k people who will pay this but 500k/year. I really hope that is the case but we shall see.
 
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