Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

At this point in time, Tesla are much closer than anyone to getting a car to drive itself on city streets and freeways with minimal intervention. No-one else is close. Nope, not MobileEye, not GM cruise, not Waymo. Sure, they have cool looking videos and slide decks, but so did Tesla. You think their promises are any less nebulous than Tesla's from 3 years ago?

Right now, the other guys are where Tesla was years ago, making promises and slick videos. Tesla has stuff actually out there in the hands of ordinary drivers. I know where I'd bet my money .. it's where I bet it when I paid for FSD. Maybe I'l be wrong, maybe I'll be right, but it's a bet, right? It's called speculation, if you don't like it, buy a Toyota and enjoy it, they are great cars, and last forever.

I have to disagree with this. Just because Tesla is letting ordinary drivers beta test their software does not mean that Tesla is closer to FSD. Mobileye, Waymo, Cruise have real self-driving cars on public roads. And Waymo has actual L4 robotaxis that the public can use. Cruise is testing real L4 robotaxis as well that the public will be able to use soon. Tesla is not even close to L4 robotaxis. And compare the FSD Beta videos to what Mobileye. Waymo and Cruise have. Tesla's FSD has way more disengagements and interventions than what Mobileye, Waymo and Cruise have. Mobileye, Waymo and Cruise can handle most scenarios with no interventions at all. Tesla's FSD beta still requires disengagements for some pretty basic stuff. That shows that they have way better FSD than Tesla.

I am not saying that Tesla can't get to FSD eventually. But right now, Tesla is years behind Mobileye, Waymo, Cruise.

 

[daniel]

ok everyone, so hindsight is 20/20 .. Tesla made promises and didn't keep them. Some people took those promises at face value, and got burned. Shouldn't have happened, but it did. I took a risk with FSD, but I went in knowing they would maybe deliver 50% max on the promises, so I'm perhaps not as angry as others.

Now what? Sure, we should not forget the broken promises ("Those who forget history..." etc). But just saying again and again "I got burned, I'm angry" isnt going to achieve anything. Time to move on, people.

At this point in time, Tesla are much closer than anyone to getting a car to drive itself on city streets and freeways with minimal intervention. No-one else is close. Nope, not MobileEye, not GM cruise, not Waymo. Sure, they have cool looking videos and slide decks, but so did Tesla. You think their promises are any less nebulous than Tesla's from 3 years ago?

Right now, the other guys are where Tesla was years ago, making promises and slick videos. Tesla has stuff actually out there in the hands of ordinary drivers. I know where I'd bet my money .. it's where I bet it when I paid for FSD. Maybe I'l be wrong, maybe I'll be right, but it's a bet, right? It's called speculation, if you don't like it, buy a Toyota and enjoy it, they are great cars, and last forever.

Okay. You don't think people should keep criticizing Tesla for making promises it couldn't keep in the past. Fair enough. But Tesla is still making promises to deliver something that does not yet exist. You believe that Tesla is almost there and is way ahead of the others. If "there" means Level 2 NAV on city streets available to car buyers, you could be right that they're ahead. But only because they've quietly re-defined FSD from "Pick up your kids with no driver in the car" to "Level 2 NAV in the city that you don't have to intervene more often than some unspecified short time period."

And Tesla is still promising that the cars they're selling today have all the necessary hardware for L4 even though they do not yet have the software for L4. All they've got is Level 2, and that's in limited beta-test only.

When big companies make grand promises for future technology, those grand promises usually never come to fruition. The nuclear industry promised that nuclear power would be "too cheap to meter." How many here remember that promise? They promised that by 1980 we'd all be going around in flying cars. Remember that one? I think FSD is coming. But it is dishonest of Tesla to sell a promise of something they don't have yet. Build the FSD and then sell it!

 

[powertoold]

But it is dishonest of Tesla to sell a promise of something they don't have yet. Build the FSD and then sell it!

Tesla didn't promise anything for FSD. There was a lot of misplaced confidence and hubris.

Almost all of the big FSD developers have had deceptive FSD marketing. Perhaps Tesla has been the worse.

But you have to consider the business aspect of fsd as well. They need to hype it up so people / investors would help subsidize it, as it can cost billions to develop.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla didn't promise anything for FSD.

Uh... yes, they did.

That's on top of having promised stoplight/stopsign and autosteer on city streets specifically by end of 2019 that they didn't deliver.

Then promising autosteer on city streets by end of 2020 that they didn't deliver.

And promising an enhanced summon that'd pick you up anywhere in the lot (instead of the small line-of-sight-short-range version actually delivered).


And that's just the stuff they specifically promised in writing during their own sales process for FSD


They promised a lot more stuff they failed to deliver via public statements from Elon (robotaxis approved in at least 1 jurisdiction by end of 2020- cross country drives on FSD going all the way back to 2017- etc)

Plus the failure of their promise HW2.0 was capable of FSD as originally promised (it's not) then the promise HW2.5 was (it's not).




Now- one could honestly suggest most of these broken promises are the result of Elon being overly optimistic and that being reflected in Teslas promises-- rather than any sort of intentional malice or deception- but denying they even happened is to deny a mountain of documented facts.

 

[powertoold]

They promised a lot more stuff they failed to deliver via public statements from Elon (robotaxis approved in at least 1 jurisdiction by end of 2020- cross country drives on FSD going all the way back to 2017- etc)

Plus the failure of their promise HW2.0 was capable of FSD as originally promised (it's not) then the promise HW2.5 was (it's not).

Perhaps our interpretation of "promises" is the problem.

Elon said it best during Autonomy Day, (somewhat paraphrasing) "I'm not always on time, but I get it done. The Tesla team gets it done."

Delays have been part of Tesla's story since the very beginning.

Edit:

"Only criticism, and it's a fair one. Sometimes I'm not on time. But, I get it done. And the Tesla team gets it done." timestamp: 3:04:58

 

[Knightshade]

Perhaps our interpretation of "promises" is the problem.

Elon said it best during Autonomy Day, (somewhat paraphrasing) "I'm not always on time, but I get it done. The Tesla team gets it done."

Delays have been part of Tesla's story since the very beginning.

If I promise I will deliver something to you in 2019, and take your money for that promise.

And it's 2021 and not only have I not delivered it- the thing promised does not yet actually exist. But I am still working on making it exist.

Did I break my promise?

Because that's what Tesla did.

Repeatedly (with dates and promised items varying).

 

[daniel]

Tesla didn't promise anything for FSD. There was a lot of misplaced confidence and hubris.

Almost all of the big FSD developers have had deceptive FSD marketing. Perhaps Tesla has been the worse.

But you have to consider the business aspect of fsd as well. They need to hype it up so people / investors would help subsidize it, as it can cost billions to develop.

I was specifically told by the salesperson, and the Tesla web site used to say (back when I bought my car in February of 2018) that if I paid for FSD my car would drive itself without any person in the car, e.g., to pick up the kids on the other side of town or to use as a robotaxi on the planned Tesla network.) I didn't buy it because I thought it would be five to ten years before they had FSD and by then I'd be ready to trade in. I never expected them to re-define FSD as Level 2 NAV in the city.

They would have been right to hype FSD as something they were (are) working on and something they're optimistic about. But not to promise that our cars had all the necessary hardware (which was also on the web site, and which they tacitly admitted was wrong when they retrofitted cars to HW 3) and not to take people's money on a promise of delivering something that didn't exist, and ESPECIALLY not to take people's money and then re-define the promise from "no driver needed" to Level 2.

Hype it, yes! Take money, no! Even Amazon does not charge you for pre-orders until they ship the item, or in the case of digital downloads, until it's on the server for you to download. They take your credit card information and charge your card when they deliver the item. And this includes items discounted for pre-order!

 

[diplomat33]

Almost all of the big FSD developers have had deceptive FSD marketing. Perhaps Tesla has been the worse.

That's a false equivalency. Other FSD developers have missed marketing deadlines but they never sold FSD to customers that did not exist. Tesla is the only FSD developer that is actually selling cars, that they claim are "FSD capable", and selling "FSD" when they don't have FSD yet. That's a whole other level.

But you have to consider the business aspect of fsd as well. They need to hype it up so people / investors would help subsidize it, as it can cost billions to develop.

This is one of the worse excuses I have seen. You are basically saying it is ok for Tesla to "hype" non-existent FSD because they really need the money. It is not ok for companies to lie or defraud stakeholders just because the project is expensive and they really need the money.

 

[diplomat33]

Perhaps our interpretation of "promises" is the problem.

Elon said it best during Autonomy Day, (somewhat paraphrasing) "I'm not always on time, but I get it done. The Tesla team gets it done."

Delays have been part of Tesla's story since the very beginning.

Edit:

"Only criticism, and it's a fair one. Sometimes I'm not on time. But, I get it done. And the Tesla team gets it done." timestamp: 3:04:58

This is just another excuse: "it's ok for Elon to lie because he eventually comes through."

The fact is that nobody blames Elon or Tesla for taking a long time to do FSD. When developing something as ambitious as FSD, it will take time and missing deadlines will inevitably happen. And nobody is forcing Tesla to overpromise.

There is an easy solution: Don't overpromise. Just work hard on FSD and deliver FSD when it is ready.

 

[powertoold]

I think most of this discussion is contingent on our interpretation of "lie", "promise", and whatnot.

If Tesla really did lie about FSD, the lawsuits would have concluded in the consumers' favor.

 

[Knightshade]

I think most of this discussion is contingent on our interpretation of "lie", "promise", and whatnot.

If Tesla really did lie about FSD, the lawsuits would have concluded in the consumers' favor.

I notice you didn't answer my question.

If I promise I will deliver something to you in 2019, and take your money for that promise.

And it's 2021 and not only have I not delivered it- the thing promised does not yet actually exist. But I am still working on making it exist.

Did I break my promise?



BTW- Tesla did lose a lawsuit regarding the missed promises on EAP back in 2016- paying out money to the earliest adopters.

They lost another in Germany for selling an FSD product that does not actually exist-
German court rules that Tesla misled consumers on Autopilot and Full Self Driving

I expect you'll see more such in time.

 

[powertoold]

There is an easy solution: Don't overpromise. Just work hard on FSD and deliver FSD when it is ready.

Tesla just does things differently than any other company out there. So far, it's working.

A lot of Elon's and Tesla's persona is based in viral marketing. That's one of the reasons why Tesla can succeed without any advertising.

I obviously will have a hard time persuading people to change their minds on this, but I think the people who think Tesla have lied about FSD are a minority. The same goes for the people who think the money they paid for FSD is / was a waste.

BTW- Tesla did lose the one lawsuit I'm aware of that was actually filed and concluded- regarding the missed promises on EAP back in 2016.

They lost another in Germany for selling an FSD product that does not actually exist-
German court rules that Tesla misled

The EU are a funny group. They have no real FSD development. They cripple Autopilot, and then they ban Tesla from advertising FSD features.

 

[daniel]

I think most of this discussion is contingent on our interpretation of "lie", "promise", and whatnot.

If Tesla really did lie about FSD, the lawsuits would have concluded in the consumers' favor.

Boy, you have more faith in the American system of jurisprudence than I do. The prevailing side in a lawsuit is not the side that's right; it's the side with the best lawyer(s). And it takes bucketloads of money to bring a civil suit.

Tesla and Musk said that my car had all the necessary hardware for FSD. That was a lie. And it was an avoidable lie because all they had to do instead was say "We think this is all the hardware we need, but since we don't have the software yet, we can't be certain."

 

[daniel]

The EU are a funny group. [...] they ban Tesla from advertising FSD features.

Features which don't actually exist.

 

[Knightshade]

Huh...you refused to answer the question twice now.

Wonder why.


Maybe 3rd time the charm?


If I promise I will deliver something to you in 2019, and take your money for that promise.

And it's 2021 and not only have I not delivered it- the thing promised does not yet actually exist. But I am still working on making it exist.

Did I break my promise?

The EU are a funny group. They have no real FSD development. They cripple Autopilot, and then they ban Tesla from advertising FSD features.

What is funny about banning the advertisement and sale of products you don't actually have yet and repeatedly have broken promises on existing or delivering?

 

[powertoold]

If I promise I will deliver something to you in 2019, and take your money for that promise.

I don't want to rehash this, which has been discussed ad nauseum by the same people over and over again. I think it's a very small group here, many of whom don't even have FSD or even a Tesla for that matter, that are constantly beating this topic.

 

[powertoold]

Tesla and Musk said that my car had all the necessary hardware for FSD.

It does have all the necessary hardware. Did Tesla explain in detail what they meant when they said this?

All necessary hardware:
Cameras, radar, cpu, ultrasonics

 

[Knightshade]

I don't want to rehash this, which has been discussed ad nauseum by the same people over and over again. I think it's a very small group here, many of whom don't even have FSD or even a Tesla for that matter, that are constantly beating this topic.

Can you point out the post where you previously answered the question?

I ask because you've refused to answer 3 times now- including this reply which is about 50x longer than simply answering yes or no would've been.

It seems you won't answer it because you know the answer, and you don't like the fact it shows Tesla broke their promise despite your continuing to defend them for doing so.



BTW I bought FSD with the vehicle, which I had pre-ordered on reveal day. Though I don't see how that's relevant to refusing to answer a simple yes/no question.

It does have all the necessary hardware. Did Tesla explain in detail what they meant when they said this?

All necessary hardware:
Cameras, radar, cpu, ultrasonics

It doesn't though.

The CPU was insufficient and has been changed at least twice now from the folks originally given that promise (and we know yet ANOTHER version is nearing manufacturing later this year- though they still "think" the 3rd one will be sufficient....then again they literally claimed that about the first 2 and were wrong so...)

The radar has also been changed at least twice (once for brand/capability of radar, then again to add heating only for newer cars and then with Green finding code suggesting a third change coming).

The cameras have been changed at least once for better color recognition.

And the existing cameras continue to have serious problems in certain weather conditions that will likely require eventual hardware changes, including retrofitting existing cars.


So- not so much.

 

[daniel]

It does have all the necessary hardware. Did Tesla explain in detail what they meant when they said this?

All necessary hardware:
Cameras, radar, cpu, ultrasonics

My car has HW 2.5. It does not have all the necessary hardware. If I did decide to pay for FSD they'd have to ship the car to Oahu to have a different computer installed. I'd probably be without the car for a month. That is very different from having all the needed hardware and just downloading an OTA software update.

I don't want to rehash this, which has been discussed ad nauseum by the same people over and over again. I think it's a very small group here, many of whom don't even have FSD or even a Tesla for that matter, that are constantly beating this topic.

The fact that a small number of people keep asking this question doesn't change the fact that you have not answered it. You could put a stop to it by just answering the question.

 

[powertoold]

My car has HW 2.5. It does not have all the necessary hardware.

That's what I meant when I asked if Tesla explained in detail what they meant by "all the necessary hardware."

"I have all the necessary hardware to build a chair." (Wood, screws, wood glue, etc.)
Starts building chair and then finds out the screws aren't long enough.

It seems to me that Tesla was saying that they have all the necessary hardware to emphasize that lidar isn't needed, as a general statement. Although it's open to interpretation because we don't know what Tesla / Elon meant by it.

On a related matter, we know Tesla is working on hw4 cpu, but does that mean the current hardware isn't enough? Or that they're gonna upgrade their cameras and radar?