Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Autonomous Car Progress

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Lol you just proved my point to @diplomat33. People were spotting Waymo minivans and vans in SF in scale in 2020 (just like I did personally). My point is the ramp-up in SF did not start up with the I-Paces in 2021, so leaving out the Pacificas is misleading. And they were testing in SF already even before then with the Pacificas in smaller scale (which should not be left out of the timeline).
No I didn’t. You were saying they were testing extensively in 2020 to counter the claim that there was any scale in 2021 or that the scale in 2021 was of any substantial difference than what they were doing in the entirety of 2020 or in prior years.

Then you posted the 3 million miles number to falsely represent that their testing in SF, prior to the supposed scaling in SF were any different to what they were already doing in SF. All that is completely wrong. Just admit it rather than trying to bs your way.

All I proved was that scaling actually happened and it’s was a gigantic difference and the entire community saw and felt it. The fact that it started in Q4 2020. Rather than Q1 2021. Basically a-couple months earlier is mean-less. That was not your point. You on the other hand we’re trying to push a completely different theory. Who cares if they had 3-10 cars testing in SF before the ramp?

Do you know the difference between for example ~10 cars testing versus the 569 in the 2021 CA report? It’s going days and weeks without seeing a Waymo to seeing one every few mins and 10-30 ways every half hour.

If they went from 3 cars testing in NYC to 500 cars next month. The people in NYC would go from days/weeks between seeing a Waymo to seeing 10-30 every half hour.

The difference in testing was monumental, everyone in SF saw it and felt it. Just like it would be if it happened in NYC. Yet you are trying to dispute it.
You tesla fans never cease to amaze me!

PS: Mountain View is still in the Bay Area, read what I wrote. There is no evidence that they have done much of their testing in CA out of the Bay Area, so a bulk of their tests if not almost all of it is likely inside the Bay Area.
Mountain View IS NOT SF. If they did 90% of their testing in Mountain View, saying they did 3 million miles in the Bay Area and SF is an attempt to mis-represent the data to push a conclusion that is completely opposite of what the data is comnunicating. You are trying to throw out a 3 million number to make it seem like they were testing extensively before in SF. Which were not the case.
 
No they don't, Waymo has tested without a driver for a while in AZ, and they are doing so also in California.
I know it's semantics but I don't consider that testing. Anyway you get the obvious point that every AV is tested with a driver first.
Did you not see FSD Beta a year and a half ago? It fell flat on its face for even relatively simple traffic maneuvers. And although it has improved a lot since then, even today it can't reliably make the certain maneuvers (like the unprotected left that has continually been tested).

You also dodged the question. What functionality do you foresee Tesla removing from FSD Beta if they launch "Autosteer from City Streets" without the safety score requirement? If they don't have to remove any functionality, why is it out of possibility to just release FSD Beta as a L2 feature?
Yes, but I but I don't think the error rate has much to do with how safe it is.
There is lots of functionality they could remove. The first ones that come to mind are the ability to go around stopped vehicles and make unprotected lefts.
Just driving in general is potentially dangerous, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here?
Of course but it seems unlikely that testing autonomous vehicles is exactly the same. Why do you think there are rules about testing autonomous vehicles on public roads?
So you think Tesla is lying about working on a door-to-door L2 feature? Or is it because you believe that there is no such thing as door-to-door L2?

Note Tesla is not the only one working on this, here's GM's effort:
GM Ultra Cruise Reveals The Brain Of Its Hands-Free Door-To-Door Driving Tech
Here's Geely/Zeeker's based on Mobileye's Supervision:
https://www.eetimes.com/chinas-geely-to-deploy-mobileyes-hands-free-adas/

Are you suggesting those be treated as L3+ systems in testing, even though they are clearly L2?
Yes, I am saying they should be treated the same because the safety issues are exactly the same. Now maybe it's possible to make these systems safe by having the driver need to takeover frequently enough (like FSD Beta currently does).
It’s the other way round.

It is dangerous not to test AVs.

I firmly believe AVs of any “level” should be tested for many million miles in real world with attentive drivers and error rate determined statistically before unleashing them on unsuspecting public. 5 minutes of testing isn’t enough. Just simulation isn’t enough.
I certainly agree that real world testing is the only way validate AVs but that doesn't mean that the safety of that testing is irrelevant. I also don't think it's particularly costly to implement safe testing relative to the extraordinary amount of money being invested in development. So I don't buy any argument that less regulation is needed to encourage innovation.
 
If the car can always stop safely without a human as the backup system then it's L4, not L3.

That's kind of the defining difference in the systems- the ability to always perform the backup "minimal risk" task without requiring a human to do so.

Which is another reason I find L3 so goofy....because it seems like "can do the entire DDT" is a much harder ask than "can safely pull over and park"




As someone who also enjoys arguing on the internet, I admire the tenacity with which you insist on being wrong about a point even Tesla own internal documentation tells you you're wrong about.
Ok. Since MB is able to stop safely based on MBs stop procedure posted in another thread, we now can conclude that Drive Pilot is in fact a Level 4 system (though with very limited ODD), and not level 3.
 
I certainly agree that real world testing is the only way validate AVs but that doesn't mean that the safety of that testing is irrelevant.
So, you are saying, it is super important to test vaccines before wide usage, but testing vaccines may not be safe so, shouldn't be done ?

Anyway, "safety of that testing is irrelevant" is a strawman. Nobody said anything like that.
 
So, you are saying, it is super important to test vaccines before wide usage, but testing vaccines may not be safe so, shouldn't be done ?

Anyway, "safety of that testing is irrelevant" is a strawman. Nobody said anything like that.
But the question was what are the safety issues and you said that it was the wrong question. I interpreted that as you saying that whatever they are it’s worth the cost in order to develop autonomous vehicles. Though I don’t know how one could conclude that without considering what the potential safety issues even are. Maybe I misinterpreted.
I guarantee you that they enumerate the safety risks when testing vaccines and weigh them versus the benefits.
 
I am trying to change the conversation because I’m now bored by the endless bickering about whether or not FSD Beta is an AV prototype. It’s also only relevant from a legal standpoint.
Any autonomous vehicle when undergoing testing on real world conditions, with a safety driver is like a vehicle with ADAS. It is as safe or unsafe as ADAS ;)

Anyway, its funny you ask since so many people drive as if the car is autonomous, even when its not, engaging is all sorts of activities.
 
I am trying to change the conversation because I’m now bored by the endless bickering about whether or not FSD Beta is an AV prototype.

There's not really any bickering.

There's what Tesla literally said and everyone else understands.

And there's what you keep claiming.


It’s also only relevant from a legal standpoint.


Naah, it's pretty relevant from a "how soon robotaxis" or "how soon >L2 on a Tesla" standpoint too.
 
I am curious about whether many people think a driver-assist "autosteer on city streets" would be a useful product that you would want. Autopilot is a useful product. In the simpler highway environment you can monitor it without a lot of mental energy and stay reasonably safe if you don't cheat on your monitoring. There are tricks to do that.

On the streets I find driving with FSD prototype to be harrowing. Interesting in the "may you live in interesting times" sense. Now, the jerky wheel will be fixed in time, but for now you can't keep your hands on the wheel. You have to be scared about it doing something scary at any intersection. It does not make the drive relaxing. Can it make the drive relaxing? Or worse, if it gets better does it put you in a state of complacency which ends up being dangerous. For now, most "beta" testers are keeping rein on it, but I am not sure where it goes.

So would you pay money for a driver-assist city street autopilot? Or is an actual real working full self driving what you would pay for? Or would you rather they worked on highway self-driving or traffic jam self-driving, even with level-3 style standby driving necessary?
 
I live in a rural area, so even the current beta works well enough I'd rather have it than not (and the couple places I need to pay special attention are pretty consistent).... and I certainly expect it to be in a lot better state before Tesla does any sort of wide release.

That said- 90% of my miles are highway so yeah I'd rather have L3 or L4 highway if I have to only pick one of the two... but only if it's a fairly broad ODD, not junk like "Only in a single lane under 30 mph in perfect daylight weather as long as the road doesn't curve too much and only on specific freeways" or something.


Kind of my minimum victory conditions I had in mind when I bought FSD back in 2018 were:

L3 or L4 on all controlled access divided highways, at any legal speed, in weather ranging from clear to at least light/moderate rain- to include handling highway interchanges, lane changes, and taking exits to follow routes.

I still think that's fairly doable in the current fleet though it will likely require at least a HW4 swap.



No because by the your logic an L2 vehicle could have complete OEDR for robotaxis except for the ability to recognize and respond to ice cream trucks. Add in ice cream truck recognition and response and it’s L5 the next day.


What flavor dressing do you suggest for that particular word salad?

My "logic" has nothing to do with it. The actual SAE levels do.

An incomplete vs complete OEDR (within the ODD of the system) is a defining boundary between L2 and all higher levels

You need a complete OEDR (within the ODD of the system) to get to L3, let alone L5.


Tesla has explicitly told us that city streets (popularly called FSDBeta) has a limited OEDR with no intention of Tesla changing that

And Tesla tells us that's one of the reasons it is by both design and intent an L2 system only and will remain so in wide release
 
I am curious about whether many people think a driver-assist "autosteer on city streets" would be a useful product that you would want. Autopilot is a useful product. In the simpler highway environment you can monitor it without a lot of mental energy and stay reasonably safe if you don't cheat on your monitoring. There are tricks to do that.

On the streets I find driving with FSD prototype to be harrowing. Interesting in the "may you live in interesting times" sense. Now, the jerky wheel will be fixed in time, but for now you can't keep your hands on the wheel. You have to be scared about it doing something scary at any intersection. It does not make the drive relaxing. Can it make the drive relaxing? Or worse, if it gets better does it put you in a state of complacency which ends up being dangerous. For now, most "beta" testers are keeping rein on it, but I am not sure where it goes.
I don't know if it'll be a useful product, but that never stopped automakers from offering them. For example most autopark implementations out there are largely gimmicks that take longer to use than parking yourself, but that doesn't stop automakers from offering them. Let's not forget the early ping-ponging lane keeping systems either.
So would you pay money for a driver-assist city street autopilot? Or is an actual real working full self driving what you would pay for? Or would you rather they worked on highway self-driving or traffic jam self-driving, even with level-3 style standby driving necessary?
Well, it seems a lot of people are already doing that, and willing to jump through hoops (the whole safety score system) to gain access to FSD Beta (which at the moment is a "driver assist city street autopilot"), after paying money out of their pockets.
 
What flavor dressing do you suggest for that particular word salad?

My "logic" has nothing to do with it. The actual SAE levels do.

An incomplete vs complete OEDR (within the ODD of the system) is a defining boundary between L2 and all higher levels

You need a complete OEDR (within the ODD of the system) to get to L3, let alone L5.


Tesla has explicitly told us that city streets (popularly called FSDBeta) has a limited OEDR with no intention of Tesla changing that

And Tesla tells us that's one of the reasons it is by both design and intent an L2 system only and will remain so in wide release
Sorry for the poor wording.
So, how close can the OEDR get to what would be required for L5 before it becomes an AV prototype?
 
Sorry for the poor wording.
So, how close can the OEDR get to what would be required for L5 before it becomes an AV prototype?
No more than 10x below needed disengage rates ?

So, given that Tesla wants 10x better than human driving, human level is the minimum bar. I.e. some 1,000x better than now.

More likely - I can see Tesla actually having AV testers in dedicated test robotaxis after surpassing human level … May be 2x better than humans, like Waymo does now.

Obviously, they are not going to register 10s of thousands of customers as AV testers with CA - which seems to be your pipe dream.
 
I am curious about whether many people think a driver-assist "autosteer on city streets" would be a useful product that you would want. Autopilot is a useful product. In the simpler highway environment you can monitor it without a lot of mental energy and stay reasonably safe if you don't cheat on your monitoring. There are tricks to do that.

On the streets I find driving with FSD prototype to be harrowing. Interesting in the "may you live in interesting times" sense. Now, the jerky wheel will be fixed in time, but for now you can't keep your hands on the wheel. You have to be scared about it doing something scary at any intersection. It does not make the drive relaxing. Can it make the drive relaxing? Or worse, if it gets better does it put you in a state of complacency which ends up being dangerous. For now, most "beta" testers are keeping rein on it, but I am not sure where it goes.

So would you pay money for a driver-assist city street autopilot? Or is an actual real working full self driving what you would pay for? Or would you rather they worked on highway self-driving or traffic jam self-driving, even with level-3 style standby driving necessary?
Will not pay for level 2 FSD (again).

Would consider paying for Mercedes Drive Pilot if I commuted a lot in appropriate ODD.

Would not pay for Honda "level 3/2" stuff.

Will always pay for Travel Assist, Autopilot and similar.
 
I am curious about whether many people think a driver-assist "autosteer on city streets" would be a useful product that you would want. Autopilot is a useful product. In the simpler highway environment you can monitor it without a lot of mental energy and stay reasonably safe if you don't cheat on your monitoring. There are tricks to do that.

On the streets I find driving with FSD prototype to be harrowing. Interesting in the "may you live in interesting times" sense. Now, the jerky wheel will be fixed in time, but for now you can't keep your hands on the wheel. You have to be scared about it doing something scary at any intersection. It does not make the drive relaxing. Can it make the drive relaxing? Or worse, if it gets better does it put you in a state of complacency which ends up being dangerous. For now, most "beta" testers are keeping rein on it, but I am not sure where it goes.

So would you pay money for a driver-assist city street autopilot? Or is an actual real working full self driving what you would pay for? Or would you rather they worked on highway self-driving or traffic jam self-driving, even with level-3 style standby driving necessary?

My preference beyond anything else is that a feature actually works. Like I'd rather have adaptive cruise control that worked great 99.9% of the time versus lane-steering plus adaptive cruise control that was prone to phantom braking.

So I find it disappointing that Tesla worked on city streets before really getting NoA working well. Even though NoA is an L2 system it has the potential of being really useful. The usefulness is in being knowledgeable about traffic ahead to determine the best lanes to be in, and when to get in those lanes.

With City Streets I believe its going to be really tough to balance usefulness with safety. Right now its fairly safe because of how much you have to monitor it. But, as soon as it is less nerve racking people will begin to trust it it.

It's going to be difficult for city streets to be useful because the very things we want it to take over for are actually the hardest things for it to do well at. Things like handling busy stop sign controlled intersections that have lots of vehicles going different directions. It's also going to be hard for it to deal with weather like rain.

So I question whether it really can be useful. It's just going to be another feature that sounds neat, but doesn't really deliver what I want.

Auto Lights -> Doesn't turn on during rain unless its getting dark (implementation doesn't match what I want)
Auto Wipers -> Doesn't work well in some rain situations (performance doesn't match expectations)
Smart Summon -> too slow, too unreliable
Visual Autopark -> too slow
TACC -> too prone to false braking and not smooth enough
AP -> Doesn't handle merge points well. Basically it doesn't handle any situation well where the lane width widens or it has to choose a lane (single stack V11 might fix this).
ALC -> Feature works well enough to be useful, but could be improved by handling some situations better.
NoA -> Does idiotic lane changes, and doesn't handle traffic very well (V11 might fix this).

Of all those features I only give ALC a passing grade in terms of usefulness. I think that's because I expect TACC/AP to work better so it annoys me that they don't. I'm not too annoyed by Autopark or Summon as I don't really need them. Maybe its that ALC is the only feature that I as a Tesla owner can really show someone where 98% of the time it will work great.

The auto lights is probably the most disappointing one as it makes a large percentage of PNW Tesla owners look like moron, and its the simplest thing to get right. Tesla should just do what other manufactures do and tie it to wiper speed.

Long term I plan on trading my 3 for a Rivian, and I expect that I'll have way less features but the features will work (or I might skip it). Sure I could get an MB or a Lucid to have better ADAS type capabilities, but I prefer the rugged nature of the Rivian.

L4 capability for under $100K would be hard to pass up on though. L4 by its nature requires the feature to work as advertised versus the make believe nature of so many L2 features (not just Tesla). L4 is the kind of thing you have a vehicle specifically for. L3 would be a nice to have, but I wouldn't buy a vehicle specifically for that.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Doggydogworld
No more than 10x below needed disengage rates ?

So, given that Tesla wants 10x better than human driving, human level is the minimum bar. I.e. some 1,000x better than now.

More likely - I can see Tesla actually having AV testers in dedicated test robotaxis after surpassing human level … May be 2x better than humans, like Waymo does now.

Obviously, they are not going to register 10s of thousands of customers as AV testers with CA - which seems to be your pipe dream.
I think Tesla has always said 2x is the bar. Elon said HW4 will deliver 10x but HW3 will be an acceptable 2x-3x.
The safety issues certainly change as the system becomes more capable but I think you'll start seeing automation complacency problems long before FSD Beta gets close to human performance. I can see the argument that the system is currently so unreliable that it is not the same as AV testing but I have no idea how one would draw the line.
I think they should lobby CA to get rid of the silly disengagement reporting. Raw disengagement rate is a very poor metric for evaluating the safety of testing or whether the system is ready for deployment. Obviously disengagement counterfactual analysis is the only way to measure the performance an ADS but that is only needed to prove that it is safe for deployment.
 
I am curious about whether many people think a driver-assist "autosteer on city streets" would be a useful product that you would want. Autopilot is a useful product. In the simpler highway environment you can monitor it without a lot of mental energy and stay reasonably safe if you don't cheat on your monitoring. There are tricks to do that.

On the streets I find driving with FSD prototype to be harrowing. Interesting in the "may you live in interesting times" sense. Now, the jerky wheel will be fixed in time, but for now you can't keep your hands on the wheel. You have to be scared about it doing something scary at any intersection. It does not make the drive relaxing. Can it make the drive relaxing? Or worse, if it gets better does it put you in a state of complacency which ends up being dangerous. For now, most "beta" testers are keeping rein on it, but I am not sure where it goes.

So would you pay money for a driver-assist city street autopilot? Or is an actual real working full self driving what you would pay for? Or would you rather they worked on highway self-driving or traffic jam self-driving, even with level-3 style standby driving necessary?
I have zero interest in such a product. I didn't really like basic AP since it was just lane-keeping. I very much like NOA since it changes lanes and navigates.

I, for one, find even FSD beta to be less and less stressful as I have gained experience with it. Although I certainly must watch it closely, I can generally predict which situations are likely to cause it trouble. The wheel jerkiness has improved greatly in the last couple builds (I'm not even on 10.11 yet) and Tesla has made substantial progress on reducing PB events (at least for me). Stop sign performance is still sub-par, but a little push on the accelerator generally gets around that.

Is driving with FSD beta relaxing? No, not really. But neither is driving by hand on city streets.