Autonomous Car Progress

[Doggydogworld]

From what we know, the Cruise AV started to make the turn and then saw the Prius coming fast in the turn only lane....

Cruise should have easily seen the Prius before starting the turn. And it seems the Cruise stopped just as it was about to exit the Prius's lane. Why? Even if you commit to a turn unwisely, once you fully enter the approaching car's lane the only safe move is to proceed! Accelerate if you can. This is true whether the Prius maintains speed and goes straight or slows down and turns. IMHO Cruise made a bad choice to proceed then made an even worse choice to stop.

BTW, locals say 40 mph is not unusual for Geary. It's clearly designed for 35 mph or higher. San Francisco Mayor London Breed has been exploiting loopholes to reduce speed limits, down to 25 for many main corridors and even 20 mph in some cases. Compliance is not high.

You know Cruise would release this video if it showed them in a positive light. So we can assume it doesn't. Let's hope NHTSA gets to the bottom of it.

 

[diplomat33]

Cruise should have easily seen the Prius before starting the turn. And it seems the Cruise stopped just as it was about to exit the Prius's lane. Why? Even if you commit to a turn unwisely, once you fully enter the approaching car's lane the only safe move is to proceed! Accelerate if you can. This is true whether the Prius maintains speed and goes straight or slows down and turns. IMHO Cruise made a bad choice to proceed then made an even worse choice to stop.

I don't disagree. That's why I said that Cruise really needs to work on their prediction/planning stack because as you point out, it made several errors in judgment. I am saying that the Prius broke several rules by speeding and going straight from a turn only lane but the Cruise AV should have been able to avoid an accident.

BTW, locals say 40 mph is not unusual for Geary. It's clearly designed for 35 mph or higher. San Francisco Mayor London Breed has been exploiting loopholes to reduce speed limits, down to 25 for many main corridors and even 20 mph in some cases. Compliance is not high.

That might be true but going 2x the speed limit is still breaking the law.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Cruise should have easily seen the Prius before starting the turn. And it seems the Cruise stopped just as it was about to exit the Prius's lane. Why? Even if you commit to a turn unwisely, once you fully enter the approaching car's lane the only safe move is to proceed! Accelerate if you can. This is true whether the Prius maintains speed and goes straight or slows down and turns. IMHO Cruise made a bad choice to proceed then made an even worse choice to stop.

BTW, locals say 40 mph is not unusual for Geary. It's clearly designed for 35 mph or higher. San Francisco Mayor London Breed has been exploiting loopholes to reduce speed limits, down to 25 for many main corridors and even 20 mph in some cases. Compliance is not high.

You know Cruise would release this video if it showed them in a positive light. So we can assume it doesn't. Let's hope NHTSA gets to the bottom of it.

Have Cruise or Waymo ever released a video of a crash? I don't think so.
My guess is that the Cruise vehicle had enough room to make the turn but some sort of failsafe in the software was triggered by the behavior of the Prius driver.

 

[Dewg]

I'm heading to SF next week, and plan on taking a few waymo rides while there.

I've failed. I tried to use waymo and was denied twice. Guess they don't want visitors but locals to test the cars.

 

[diplomat33]

I've failed. I tried to use waymo and was denied twice. Guess they don't want visitors but locals to test the cars.

View attachment 827073

Bummer. Sorry to hear that. I still like that pic of the I-Pace with the 5th Gen sensors.

I think Waymo might still be doing their trusted rider program with locals and employees. But hopefully the general public will be able to take driverless rides soon since Waymo has been testing in SF for awhile now. There could be some regulatory obstacles too since I don't think the CPUC has granted Waymo their permit to accept paid driverless rides yet. As you probably know, CA has some burdensome regulations where AV companies have to get 3 different permits in sequential order before they can do a fully driverless commercial ride-hailing service.

Maybe you can get a Cruise ride.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Have Cruise or Waymo ever released a video of a crash? I don't think so.

Driver intentionally causes wreck with Waymo.

Red light runner caroms into Waymo.

I've failed. I tried to use waymo and was denied twice. Guess they don't want visitors but locals to test the cars.

Waymo One in Chandler AZ is open to the public. San Francisco and downtown Phoenix are still only open to "trusted testers".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Driver intentionally causes wreck with Waymo.

Red light runner caroms into Waymo.

Waymo One in Chandler AZ is open to the public. San Francisco and downtown Phoenix are still only open to "trusted testers".

Man, they've got to work on their evasive maneuvers! The first one in particular was very easy to avoid, and the second potentially avoidable (or at least impact velocity reduced) by an alert driver. This is where autonomous vehicles should excel! Obviously they have plenty of other things to work on before they worry about not-at-fault accidents (though the first was their fault; you need to be ready to stop for people who stop in the middle of the road who are trying to get you to run into them; it happens all the time!).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Man, they've got to work on their evasive maneuvers! The first one in particular was very easy to avoid, and the second potentially avoidable (or at least impact velocity reduced) by an alert driver. This is where autonomous vehicles should excel! Obviously they have plenty of other things to work on before they worry about not-at-fault accidents (though the first was their fault; you need to be ready to stop for people who stop in the middle of the road who are trying to get you to run into them; it happens all the time!).

They should put RE71R tires on them. haha. Actually I have no idea why they wouldn't put the stickiest tires available... it's not like they're worrying about cost right now. Put Hoosiers on!
The second one was in manual mode.

Video: Waymo Vehicle Crashes in Chandler

"The Waymo vehicle is not the violator vehicle."

www.phoenixnewtimes.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The second one was in manual mode.

Video: Waymo Vehicle Crashes in Chandler

"The Waymo vehicle is not the violator vehicle."

www.phoenixnewtimes.com

Ah, ok. That explains the complete lack of a reaction. The car was not going very fast, it seems like it should have just come to a complete halt.

The first one I'm still surprised that the Waymo didn't stop. Seemed really easy. Was there a safety driver in the car for that one (I wonder whether they interfered with the system)?

 

[diplomat33]

Man, they've got to work on their evasive maneuvers! The first one in particular was very easy to avoid, and the second potentially avoidable (or at least impact velocity reduced) by an alert driver. This is where autonomous vehicles should excel! Obviously they have plenty of other things to work on before they worry about not-at-fault accidents (though the first was their fault; you need to be ready to stop for people who stop in the middle of the road who are trying to get you to run into them; it happens all the time!).

These are old accidents too. One video is from 2018 and the other is from 2020. I certainly hope and expect that Waymo has improved their evasive maneuvers since then.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I certainly hope and expect that Waymo has improved their evasive maneuvers since then.

Yes, hopefully. It would be awesome to see some video of the newer vehicles evading accidents (and getting into accidents). There must be a lot of them.

 

[diplomat33]

Yes, hopefully. It would be awesome to see some video of the newer vehicles evading accidents (and getting into accidents). There must be a lot of them.

Do you mean a lot of videos or a lot of accidents?

According to the CA DMV collision report, Waymo reported 23 collisions so far this year while in autonomous mode. As you can see below, they were all cases where the Waymo stopped and got rear ended, and a couple parking lot scraps. There were accidents in manual mode too. I did not include those since we don't know how the autonomous driver would have handled them. A lot of the manual mode accidents were the safety driver being a bad human driver.

Here are the descriptions of the autonomous mode accidents:

1. June 21: Waymo AV approached a parking lot. As the Waymo AV turned left and into the parking lot, the Waymo AV's undercarriage made contact with the driveway pavement (the AV did not contact any vehicle or road user).
2. June 5: Waymo was stopped behind traffic. Car in front went into reverse and backed into the front of the Waymo.
3. June 1: SUV rolled forward and rear ended Waymo that was stopped at red light.
4. May 27: Motorcycle rear ended Waymo that was stopped at red light.
5. May 17: Waymo prepared to make a left turn onto McAllister Street. As the Waymo AV entered the intersection, it slowed to yield to northbound traffic on Stanyan Street. A passenger car approached from behind and made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
6. May 4: While attempting a merge onto northbound Bayshore Boulevard from southbound Bayshore Boulevard, the Waymo AV came to a stop to yield for approaching traffic on the right. While stopped, a vehicle approached from behind and made contact with the rear bumper of the Waymo AV.
7. April 24: Waymo AV was traveling on westbound Lincoln Way, when it slowed for the vehicle directly in front of the Waymo AV, which stopped shortly after passing 17th Avenue. Shortly after the Waymo AV came to a stop, the SUV behind the Waymo AV was rear-ended by a pickup truck, and the SUV then made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
8. April 18: Waymo AV was traveling westbound on Duboce Avenue in autonomous mode when it approached a parking lot on the left side of the street. As the Waymo AV turned left and into the parking lot, the Waymo AV’s undercarriage made contact with the driveway pavement (the AV did not contact any vehicle or road user).
9. April 18: Waymo AV was stopped at a red light facing northeast on Bryant Street in autonomous mode. While the light was still red, a passenger vehicle that had been stopped behind the Waymo AV began to move forward and made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
10. April 5: Waymo AV came to a stop at a stop sign on Quintara Street at 20th Avenue, and as it was about to proceed, a passenger vehicle behind the Waymo AV then made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
11. March 31: Waymo AV was stopped at a red traffic light on southbound Potrero Avenue when a pedestrian entered the crosswalk. When the traffic light turned green, the Waymo AV remained stopped for a crossing pedestrian who had just reached the pedestrian island in the middle of the crosswalk. After a brief pause, the ADV started to proceed, when the SUV behind the Waymo AV then made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
12. March 26: Waymo AV was slowing for a stop sign while traveling westbound on Oakdale Avenue in autonomous mode. An SUV approached from behind and made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV.
13. March 9: Waymo AV was stopped in traffic, eastbound on Irving Street in autonomous mode. A parked car to the right of the Waymo AV began reversing into the street and made contact with the rear right side of the Waymo AV.
14. Feb 28: Waymo AV was stopped at a red light facing west on Cesar Chavez at the Mission Street intersection in the left turn lane in autonomous mode. While the traffic light was still red, the vehicle immediately behind the Waymo AV began to accelerate toward the right side of the Waymo AV and made contact with the right rear bumper of the Waymo AV.
15. Feb 19: While attempting a merge onto northbound Bayshore Boulevard from southbound Bayshore Boulevard, the Waymo AV came to a stop to yield for approaching traffic on the right. While stopped, a vehicle approached from behind and made contact with the rear bumper of the Waymo AV.
16. Feb 14: Waymo AV was stopped at a red light facing north on Kansas Street at the 16th Street intersection. While the traffic light was still red, the vehicle immediately behind the Waymo AV began to accelerate and made contact with the rear bumper of the Waymo AV.
17. Feb 11: Waymo AV was approaching stopped traffic in the left turn lane on Market Street at Valencia Street when a passenger vehicle approached from behind and made contact with the rear bumper of the Waymo AV.
18. Feb 9: Waymo AV was traveling westbound on Coral Road and came to a stop while yielding to an oncoming pick-up truck in a narrow roadway. The oncoming truck continued proceeding straight and made contact with the rear left sensor of the Waymo AV.
19. Feb 1: Waymo AV was stopped at a stop sign facing west on Clipper Street while yielding to pedestrians in the crosswalk. After the pedestrians had crossed, the Waymo started to edge forward when an SUV to the Waymo AV’s rear passed the Waymo AV by driving in the oncoming traffic lane and made contact with the left rear sensor housing of the Waymo AV.
20. Jan 28: While proceeding straight on eastbound Noriega Street in autonomous mode, the Waymo AV slowed down and came to a halt at the stop sign at the intersection with 25th Avenue. As the Waymo began to proceed, a SUV approached the Waymo AV from behind and made contact with the rear of the Waymo AV
21. Jan 28: Waymo AV was stopped at a red light on northbound Franklin Street at Golden Gate Avenue. After the traffic light turned green and the Waymo AV had begun to accelerate, the passenger vehicle behind the Waymo AV struck the rear of the Waymo AV.
22. Jan 20: Waymo AV was stopped at a red light facing north on Polk Street in autonomous mode at the Sacramento Street intersection. The light turned green and the Waymo AV proceeded partially into the intersection, yielding to pedestrians in the left crosswalk while preparing to make a left turn. A passenger vehicle parked behind the Waymo AV on the right shoulder of Sacramento street pulled out of the shoulder and made contact with the right side of the rear of the Waymo AV.
23. Jan 3: While attempting a merge onto northbound Bayshore Boulevard from southbound Bayshore Boulevard, the Waymo AV came to a stop to yield for approaching traffic on the right. The Waymo AV was rear ended by the truck, causing minor damage to the right rear bumper of the Waymo AV.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Do you mean a lot of videos

A lot of videos! Everyone loves (maybe the wrong word…) crash videos.

 

[diplomat33]

A lot of videos! Everyone loves (maybe the wrong word…) crash videos.

Sorry to disappoint you but I've looked at all the reported collisions for this year, there have been no Waymo crashes this year, so far. They have all been minor collisions, almost of them rear ends by other vehicles.

 

[ThomasD]

No one will own cars in the future. Truck driving jobs will no longer exist Tu Simple plans to be fully autonomous by 2024

 

[diplomat33]

No one will own cars in the future. Truck driving jobs will no longer exist Tu Simple plans to be fully autonomous by 2024

That video is over a year old and it makes a big mistake about L4. L4 does not require pre-loaded maps.

I also disagree that no own will own cars in the future. I think there will be a market for L4 or L5 consumer cars. So I think people will still own their own car in the future, the car will just be able to drive itself.

I think the idea that personal car ownership will disappear in the future, is based on the faulty premise that everybody will prefer driverless ride-hailing over owning a car. Certainly in big cities, where personal car ownership is already costly and inconvenient, the option of driverless ride-hailing will be very appealing. But there will be lots of areas outside of cities, where personal car ownership will remain attractive. And people will still want to own a car for personal enjoyment, a sense of freedom, convenience or to go places where the robotaxis don't go.

If we ever get to L5 robotaxis and if they are cheaper than personal car ownership, I could see many people giving up personal car ownership. But we are a very long ways from that! And you will still have people slow to make the transition or just don't want to give up their old car. Heck, many people still drive cars that are 10+ years old.

 

[diplomat33]

Interesting news from Zoox:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546509695665389573

 

[Daniel in SD]

Interesting news from Zoox:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546509695665389573

Uhmmm... The Model S with HW2 had L5 capable hardware when it came out in 2016.
I guess they get by on the "purpose-built" caveat. Look forward to seeing them go driverless!

 

[diplomat33]

Uhmmm... The Model S with HW2 had L5 capable hardware when it came out in 2016.
I guess they get by on the "purpose-built" caveat.

Yes, the point is that the Zoox vehicle is purpose built from the ground up to be a driverless vehicle. It is built with only passenger seats and no steering wheel or pedals. The Model S is a standard consumer car.

Look forward to seeing them go driverless!

Me too.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes, the point is that the Zoox vehicle is purpose built from the ground up to be a driverless vehicle. It is built with only passenger seats and no steering wheel or pedals. The Model S is a standard consumer car.

I assume they have a variant with manual controls? I haven't seen a picture of that.