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Autopilot 3.0 Hardware: When and what?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by calisnow, Nov 24, 2016.

  1. kurdakov

    kurdakov Member

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    • Informative x 2
  2. Reeler

    Reeler 9th Year of Pure EV

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    I would like to see 360 degree radars on top of their 360 cameras before I consider upgrading. I think AP 2.0 will never get past the regulators even if Tesla gets it working for 99% of the normal driving.
     
  3. Falkirk

    Falkirk Member

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    How many meters can people see behind them using the mirrors?
     
  4. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    The real question is "How many meters and able judge the distance and speed of an approaching vehicle?"
     
  5. kurdakov

    kurdakov Member

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    with the release on software for hardware 2.0 we have some more 'data points'

    thus there is some more food to think on topic question.

    1. those frequent 'red cars' false positives with hardware2 are due to lack of adequate 3D reasoning, while info from Tesla indicates radar has some 3D capabilities, it looks like essentially it is 2D radar with 2.5D capabilities just due to software processing, thus so lot of false positives are needed to map. But any new road, or road with significant upgrades could potentially lead to accidents - so such situation could not end with 4/5 self driving capabilities because just there always be situations, when active driver intervention is needed.

    3D radar of lidar or any other tech which does not need to map roads with humans to start reasoning about unknown surroundings is really needed, also those difficulties to detect stationary cars should not exist at all for any true level 4/5 self driving car, and sadly they are here for now.

    2. with above observations it looks there is no way that current hardware technology could attain level 5 self driving, possibly not even level 4 ( though level 3+ is certainly will be attainted ),
    for level 4/5 there is clear need for more sensors and exactly those sensors which perceive true 3D

    and we can try to make new estimations for advised level4/5 self driving capabilities:

    cheap lidars ( and the likes ) start to appear, but could be two years away for market availability, there are also seems difficulties with software ( because it took too much time from Google even when they disregarded costs of previous generation of lidars )
    radically better 3D radar takes time to develop - so we could assume that it could appear no faster than past 2020

    but at the same time by the end of the year it will be crystal clear, that Tesla has solid software and hardware for level 3+ self driving car but no more, there will be attempt to make some modifications - either use more precise gps and annotated maps as assistance to bring software/hardware to level 4 in some areas or there will be rush to install lidars or the likes, which can figure out 3D much better, than current hardware, but most probably - lidars will be skipped again, and then level 4 self driving capabilities will be reached by end of 2018 but only past 2020 we could expect some true level 5 autonomous driving with those mentioned true 3D sensing hardware.
     
    • Informative x 2
  6. Model S M.D.

    Model S M.D. Ludicrous Radiologist

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    Agree with calisnow. Even though hardare 2.0 is technically capable of Level 5 autonomy, it doesn't mean Tesla won't keep upgrading the hardware to improve the system, add redundancy, etc. Give me the camera/sensors of 2020 over the camera/sensors of 2016 :)
     
    • Like x 1
  7. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    Hardware 3.0 is definitely on the horizon. I just got my VIN assigned... As soon as I take delivery it will be announced!
     
    • Funny x 2
    • Like x 1
  8. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    Level 5 is just a "driver's license." Look at all the variables from the best to worst drivers on the road today. Of course there will be better software, hardware processing, and sensors. The first release might be 10x better than an average human driver. The next suite could be 10x better than the best hypothetical human driver.

    I expect higher resolution cameras, higher frame rates, wider dynamic range, better radar, and even specialty sensors like thermal imaging (to detect animals/children behind bushes), FLIR, and the like. I was surprised AP 2.0 didn't include a 802.11p Wi-Fi setup for C2C and C2X, so I expect that as well.
     

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