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AWD delivery thread

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My understanding is one can edit their order right up until it is assigned a VIN. Also, in talking to Tesla, because delivery advisors are so overwhelmed it may be that your notification of VIN assignment may be a week or more after VIN assignment.He suggested I call every week to check. I think I'll call once or twice a month instead. I still don't see how the math works on this. 420,000 reservations. About half are for SR so 210,000 for LR. I'd guess most RWDs have been delivered so, approx 100,000 AWD. At 5,000/wk that's 20 weeks or 5 months. Frankly, I hope I am wrong. I reserved Sept 3 last year. LR, AWD, PUP, FSD, Aero.
I believe there were 400,000 reservations world-wide, so likely the number of AWD U.S. reservations is lower than that. Or that’s just me wishful thinking as I (im)patiently wait..
 
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I believe there were 400,000 reservations world-wide, so likely the number of AWD U.S. reservations is lower than that. Or that’s just me wishful thinking as I (im)patiently wait..
I hadn't thought of that...thanks...I feel every so much better now!! If you hadn't discovered it yet Teslanomics (Ben Sullins) has some good YouTube vids on Telsa M3s. I got into a discussion where someone said Freemonth produced 15,000/mo, 3 production lines at 5k each. NO, 3 production lines together make the 5k. Freemont produces 5k total, working on 6k by end of Aug. I recently read there were 14,000 VINs Tesla registered largely M3s. Yet on the trackers, even being self reporting, I've yet to see anything greater than onesie-twosie VINs assigned. Even though that tracker is a subset of total M3s I'd expect to see, over the course of a week, maybe 500-1000 VIN assigned M3s show up. It's worth keeping an eye on.
 
I hadn't thought of that...thanks...I feel every so much better now!! If you hadn't discovered it yet Teslanomics (Ben Sullins) has some good YouTube vids on Telsa M3s. I got into a discussion where someone said Freemonth produced 15,000/mo, 3 production lines at 5k each. NO, 3 production lines together make the 5k. Freemont produces 5k total, working on 6k by end of Aug. I recently read there were 14,000 VINs Tesla registered largely M3s. Yet on the trackers, even being self reporting, I've yet to see anything greater than onesie-twosie VINs assigned. Even though that tracker is a subset of total M3s I'd expect to see, over the course of a week, maybe 500-1000 VIN assigned M3s show up. It's worth keeping an eye on.

A few of things to note... You are right that they are producing ~5k Model 3s per week, which means ~15-20k/month (because they haven't actually maintained 5k/week consistently). There are almost 100k Model 3 VINs registered, but that doesn't really tell you that much because they register in advance of building and are doing some randomization when they use them.

The online trackers are only showing data for people who use them. To give you an idea, we know they have delivered about 40k Model 3s as of the end of June 2018. The community tracking sheet only shows ~2600, so it only covers about 6% of purchases. It is a big enough sample to get some sense of what is going on, but only seeing a small number of VINs is expected. I'd also expect the coverage is going down over time given the earliest purchases were all Tesla and/or EV enthusiasts who had to wait a long time (and hence were much more likely to look at forums and find the tracking sheets.
 
A few of things to note... You are right that they are producing ~5k Model 3s per week, which means ~15-20k/month (because they haven't actually maintained 5k/week consistently). There are almost 100k Model 3 VINs registered, but that doesn't really tell you that much because they register in advance of building and are doing some randomization when they use them.

The online trackers are only showing data for people who use them. To give you an idea, we know they have delivered about 40k Model 3s as of the end of June 2018. The community tracking sheet only shows ~2600, so it only covers about 6% of purchases. It is a big enough sample to get some sense of what is going on, but only seeing a small number of VINs is expected. I'd also expect the coverage is going down over time given the earliest purchases were all Tesla and/or EV enthusiasts who had to wait a long time (and hence were much more likely to look at forums and find the tracking sheets.
I agree. I mis described that thread I had. The guy I was talking to was saying 15k/week as 5k per line. I double checked no, it's, as you said too, 5k/plant. It's just that, anecdotally, people are saying, and these are non-employee, non-prior owner, initially they were told 2-3 months and a week or so later they get a call the care is being delivered.
What I don't have a good sense for is between 3/31/16 and 3/31/17 how many AWDs were ordered. I thought there were 5,000 cars in that sample as, as I recall, I am like row 4500. It starts at row 1 and goes to 4985. (Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries). So if that reflects 10% after a couple of weeks I'd expect to see between 500 and 1,000 updates that a VIN was assigned. If I understood you correctly, which I agree with, once someone gets their VIN assigned they may be less interested in updating their own status. Then there is the whole "watched pot" saying. Do you have a sense of how many AWD orders were placed in that first month? I'm going to guess a couple of weeks worth of production max.
 
So what happens if I do that and it just brings me to manage reservation and the screen that just says we are drafting up your contract?
Yep...you are moments away from a VIN my friend.I believe.... I can edit my design still...When did you reserve/order etc? are you current owner and/or employee?

You might not be notified for up to a week or so but it appears you are locked out of changes.
 
Yep...you are moments away from a VIN my friend.I believe.... I can edit my design still...When did you reserve/order etc? are you current owner and/or employee?

You might not be notified for up to a week or so but it appears you are locked out of changes.
Not a current owner, Reserved 4/6/16, never got my email to config but configed 6/27/18, AWD,MSM,18" Aero, EAP
I changed from 3rd party financing to cash on 8/4 and it disappeared. The verbiage on paperwork happened immediately at that point.
I had no vin as of 2 days ago.
 
Long time lurker, first time poster. Just noticed i have a referral code showing up on my account screen now. Is this a good sign that there is some sort of traction on my account now? I hope so...

Ordered: 6/29
Red with White Interior (7/23)
Non-owner
Delivery Est: Sept - Nov
Pickup Location: Richmond, VA
 
Yep...you are moments away from a VIN my friend.I believe.... I can edit my design still...When did you reserve/order etc? are you current owner and/or employee?

You might not be notified for up to a week or so but it appears you are locked out of changes.
One thing to note is that you have to do the link exactly correctly or else it kicks you back out to the main login page. When I first checked out that link I was going to the following, because it took the same link structure as the product-finalize page:

https://www.tesla.com/teslaaccount/edit-design?rn=RN10XXXXX

That kicked me back to the login page. But when I did the actual link it does take me to the design studio:

https://www.tesla.com/teslaaccount/edit-design/RN10XXXXX

Robarino might want to check that the link is formatted correctly.
 
Not a current owner, Reserved 4/6/16, never got my email to config but configed 6/27/18, AWD,MSM,18" Aero, EAP
I changed from 3rd party financing to cash on 8/4 and it disappeared. The verbiage on paperwork happened immediately at that point.
I had no vin as of 2 days ago.
Kelly Blue Book and, I believe CarMax offers instant purchase of used cars. I have trade-in specified now as it should save me $600-$700 in state tax but I do agree it makes life ever so much easier and quicker than trade-in. I suspect you'll be taking delivery in Dedham. I went to Dedham last year about this time to test drive a new S. Amazing car! But, being retired I am not going to spend $100K+ on a car that is too big for my needs.
But if going cash route is that much quicker.... hmmmm I reserved last Sept so you are in initial bubble of reservations. It might be happenstance this happened to you.
 
One thing to note is that you have to do the link exactly correctly or else it kicks you back out to the main login page. When I first checked out that link I was going to the following, because it took the same link structure as the product-finalize page:

Tesla SSO – Login

That kicked me back to the login page. But when I did the actual link it does take me to the design studio:

Tesla SSO – Login

Robarino might want to check that the link is formatted correctly.
Yes. Also to remember to replace the RNxxxxx with your reservation number. Or else it’ll just kick you to your account order page
 
One thing to note is that you have to do the link exactly correctly or else it kicks you back out to the main login page. When I first checked out that link I was going to the following, because it took the same link structure as the product-finalize page:

Tesla SSO – Login

That kicked me back to the login page. But when I did the actual link it does take me to the design studio:

Tesla SSO – Login

Robarino might want to check that the link is formatted correctly.

You were right.. I got all excited. When I do your 2nd link, I can edit.. :(
 
When I open my app I see the loot box, it says Model 3 at the top and all the video guides are in there. I suppose everyone has that, correct?
Yea. From other's stories, I believe that when your car is at the dealership and formally assigned to you for delivery, you should start to see it in the app as the owner. You can see when the doors/frunk/trunk are open, charge...etc. Try not to honk... like... too much! :)
 
Do you have a dual motor badge on the back. I've heard rumors that they are no longer putting badges on non P dual motor cars?
Great question. The car showed up without a dual motor badge. The delivery specialists said that they are waiting for them to be delivered, and that they'll schedule a time at the srrvu e center to have it applied. I wanted to have the badge initially, but driving the car is what's really fun. Happy to update when the badge comes in.

Nate.