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AWD delivery thread

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Seen several posts about “losing leverage” but I don’t really understand this attitude. This isn’t Slick Tony selling you a tv out of the back of his van. Tesla will fix the problems or assign you a new car, so what leverage do you need? Are you going to see the car you’ve been waiting years for, find some problems, and decide you no longer want a Tesla anymore?
The irony is, people changing their order go to the back of the line and don't even realize it. Further, I wonder what the repo rate will be.
 
We loved it down there. 77-80 Reston, 93-98 Sterling
9/3/2017 - reserved
6/28/2018 - invited to configure
6/29/2018 - 00:03 - configured AWD, red/blk 18" aero, PUP, FSD
Closest delivery location: Dedham, MA

There is not enough data to make accurate predictions on delivery.
why? RWD stockpiled, delivered en mass 7/2018
AWD backlogged, transitioning from RWD to AWD, unknown backlog
presumptions: if they produce 5500->6000 /week they can deliver 5500->6000/week
Known unknown: backlog, if its 50,000 that's roughly 10wks
when will 10,500 fresh VINs be assigned. That represents 2 weeks of production.
to what extent have AWDs been under-promised and over-delivered, will 2 months really be 1 mo?
I expect backlog on AWD fulfilled in Aug. Ppl getting deliveries now reserved in late April 2016, this indicates initial bubble has been fulfilled.
I anticipate late Aug notification and early Sept delivery.

The backlog is there and I wasn’t expecting to get mine anytime soon due to my location on the East Coast yet here I am taking delivery Wednesday. I think the backlog is there but at the rate they are pushing them out, I don’t see ordering now pushing you past the new year. It’s those people that are holding out for SR that won’t be getting a car before the new year.
 
I keep debating if Trade-in is slowing my VIN process. The rep on the customer service number said it didn’t, but who knows.

I also kept things pretty basic in terms of ordering (MSM, black interior) and didn't make any changes from initial configuration. That might have helped things move along more quickly.

I have a feeling that they produce them in batches and that less common colors might come along less frequently, resulting in longer waits.
 
These are the most frustrating to those of us that have had orders in for months. Then we find people getting orders fulfilled seemingly wildly out of order. Certainly don't blame you. Enjoy your car but wtf Tesla
That's not actually true in the aggregate. Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries and get entire spreadsheet then sort ascending (a->z) on reservation date. for the most part vin assignments track to reservation date. Not 100% but very close to it.
 
That's not actually true in the aggregate. Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries and get entire spreadsheet then sort ascending (a->z) on reservation date. for the most part vin assignments track to reservation date. Not 100% but very close to it.

Thank you for pointing to this link! I love the data...but I’ve seen several spreadsheets that seem to be THE database. The sheets on page 1 of this thread seem pretty good. Thoughts on the best database?
 
The backlog is there and I wasn’t expecting to get mine anytime soon due to my location on the East Coast yet here I am taking delivery Wednesday. I think the backlog is there but at the rate they are pushing them out, I don’t see ordering now pushing you past the new year. It’s those people that are holding out for SR that won’t be getting a car before the new year.
I amso strongly suspect those that cancel order (post June reservation) to order something else go to back of like. My sense is there is simply not enough valid data available. I use Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries then entire spreadsheet to get latest. What I sense is people who initially entered their info and dropped out never deleted their entry, so they have very early config dates and nothing else. Another scenario is that spreadsheet is gold right until they get their vin, then their interest in spreadsheet wanes. That's just supposition on my part. Yeah..East Coast. I am closer to Boston than NY and the Dedham service center serves Prudential Center showroom as well as Natick Mall showroom. The sent me to Dedham for test drive in S because Natick didn't have inventory (just a mall storefront apparently).I don't know if this is "happy ears" but I am hoping to get a VIN this month. One thing good about Spreadsheet is it may well be it is 10% of M3 reservations/configs so one can glean things like the day 1 rush, goes on for pages, then after a few pages (31 entries) it has Q2 2017 reservations so once over the hump, it should go fast at 5500/week. Here's hoping!!
 
Thank you for pointing to this link! I love the data...but I’ve seen several spreadsheets that seem to be THE database. The sheets on page 1 of this thread seem pretty good. Thoughts on the best database?
There is another topic on here where they use a spreadsheet from "Troy". That DB does not have me in it and has half the entries of the one I use. I did see in that other topic THIS IS NOT THE ORIGINAL I have the email for the author of this one ... I'll ask him. He talks like he is the originator. [email protected]
 
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It’s clear order date has less influence over reservation date. He reserved day one. So I’m not sure this is a “WTF Tesla” moment given the batch creation of these vehicles.

Not sure that's the case.

Non-owner
3/31/16 in-store reservation
5/31/18 configured AWD, red/black, 18” aero, PUP, EAP
edit design link disappeared as soon as I confirmed everything
Delivery location: Brooklyn, NY (I’ve stopped by a few times and test drove the RWD...they say deliveries are not backed up or delayed on their end)

No trade
Cash

Same “We are drafting up your contract and will contact you when you can make your final payment” message under NEXT STEPS that I’ve had since placing my order.

No VIN, No email, no contact...but REALLY hoping something happens soon
 
I haven't seen too much movement on this thread for chicago area folks so I figure I'd add my stat to the thread

Chicago area AWD owners, I just got assigned a vin 66XXX

day 1 reservation holder
non-owner
order 6/28 (as soon as it opened to me)
MSM non-P AWD aero EAP

they told me as early as 8/24 delivery
 
I haven't seen too much movement on this thread for chicago area folks so I figure I'd add my stat to the thread

Chicago area AWD owners, I just got assigned a vin 66XXX

day 1 reservation holder
non-owner
order 6/28 (as soon as it opened to me)
MSM non-P AWD aero EAP

they told me as early as 8/24 delivery
Who's 'they'?
I suspect the 10,500 new VINs registered will flush out the day 1 reservations nicely. It may reach me, a 9/17 reservation holder. 10,000 is 2 weeks worth of production. After the day 1 / 2 bubble it gets pretty thin. I think I may well get a VIN before month's end. Of course, that reeks of wishful thinking.
 
Who's 'they'?
I suspect the 10,500 new VINs registered will flush out the day 1 reservations nicely. It may reach me, a 9/17 reservation holder. 10,000 is 2 weeks worth of production. After the day 1 / 2 bubble it gets pretty thin. I think I may well get a VIN before month's end. Of course, that reeks of wishful thinking.

the customer service line I called the 800 number. he said I was assigned Today and I'll have a delivery consultant call in the next day or two and it looks like the earliest for delivery for me 8/24... I know it sounds convenient and I suspect that I got assigned just because I called... or it was REALLY that coincidental. I've been on the drafting your contract screen for close to 2 weeks now
 
the customer service line I called the 800 number. he said I was assigned Today and I'll have a delivery consultant call in the next day or two and it looks like the earliest for delivery for me 8/24... I know it sounds convenient and I suspect that I got assigned just because I called... or it was REALLY that coincidental. I've been on the drafting your contract screen for close to 2 weeks now

If it means anything, I called today and the rep I spoke to said that she's been seeing about two weeks from the finalization of paperwork stage to VIN assignment. I'm stuck at a screen informing me that a delivery experience specialist is reviewing my changes after I changed from Tesla financing to cash and indicated that I have a change to my insurance info. She told me that there's a ticket in to change my paperwork to cash payment.