Bro, at some level we are vehemently agreeing! If I am not mistaken, you reserved/initially ordered yours on 6/28/18. Yes, by my calculations you will get your car this year. People who order right this second will also get their car this year, so long as the creek don't rise. We're on the same side. I disagree with some of what you said. There is another 'thread' if you will I am having with J about charting the best way to let people know where they stand. The premise of that is, nobody cares what happens AFTER they get their car. However, the care what happens up until they get their car.First, apology also from me, after I reread what I posted the "uh what" (that you quoted above, before I changed it) sounded rude when I meant it as "I don't understand what you're saying here." I truthfully still don't quite get it, but that's neither here nor there. Regardless, unless I'm mistaken, Tesla didn't publish that order until after the quarter ended, and they definitely never clarified if people could "jump" earlier configurations based on reservation date. Now that we're seeing deliveries, it seems that is what is occurring. I stated that in my original estimation, that was wrong.
In my original estimation, I was already tooting around town in my Model 3.
I also do think it's important as where the numbers come from. I don't use, for instance, the Bloomberg production estimate, I generally only use the Tesla data.... However...
You stated that I took issue with your data. With the exception of the random word "but" that I added here, this is my original quote (with but included... but if you read it without, it's a little clearer):
"While I don't completely share your optimism (more on that in a moment), but I did a very complex breakdown the day after I configured on 6/28 to try to better estimate where I was in line and my numbers now aren't too far off."
For the most part, my numbers jive with your numbers. The difference is you're expecting them to hit in the middle of the estimate, and I'm expecting them to hit at the end of the estimate.
The only thing that I think you overlooked in your numbers is that you estimated 8-9 weeks assuming 52,500 AWD cars needed at 6,000 a week. I used a lower estimate (5,000), and assumed we still need to keep *some* RWD cars rolling off the line too. In your estimate, we need another 52,500 RWD cars by the end of the year, which since production at the end of Q2 stood at just under 30k, we'd need another 20,000 of those by year end.
20,000 at 5,000 / week is four more weeks.
My whole point was to break down in further detail why I think it's totally possible to make a fair estimate like this, and to highlight a few things that I think need to be considered. Having said that, as I also tried to highlight with my final points, my numbers are purposely pessimistic and represent what I think is the longest possible wait. Yours seem to be more optimistic. That's absolutely fine. I have a hunch yours may land closer to where my car actually shows up.
Having said all of this, for Tesla's sake, I *hope* that the demand legitimately is large enough that I won't get my car until the end of November. While I would love to get a call tomorrow that my car is in transit, come and pick it up on Saturday, I also want my car to be supported through updates throughout it's life and keep getting better. The larger Tesla gets, the more likely they will continue to support this car for years and years into the future. If, on the flip side, all demand is filled by the end of September, we will be in a situation where bankruptcy is possible, and that wouldn't bode well for updates of the car I'm getting.
Which, I guess, is why I'm just accepting of whenever I get it. The sooner, the quicker I get a freaking phenomenal car that drives unlike anything I've ever been in before, and the sooner I no longer have to worry about my current car losing a wheel on the freeway or something. However, the later I receive it, the more likely that the car will continue to grow and improve along with the rest of the company for the next 10+ years that I own it.
Win / win.
One thing that concerns me is now there are, at least, three independent spreadsheets. That is supremely unfortunate. I, for one, updated my information in three different locations. That is unlikely to continue. I really like the work @jkirkwood001 is doing with his source data. We're all in the same boat! WHY? because we, those of us left here have not received our cars yet, whether we've been waiting 2 1/2 yrs or 2 months. So, in that regard, we are all trying to reverse engineer the data. I was uncharacteristically harsh in my reaction to your claim...I tried to correct that. Again, we are all on the same side. I, sincerely hope, J sees the example dataset and chart I provided and says..Yes, makes sense now here it is against the best available live data. My senior year (college) adv statistics and criminology thesis papers were based on FBI available data. ...every which way but loose. I "science'd the *sugar* out of that data" and drew statistically significant conclusions. That was then. We don't have accurate data. We ALL want our fricken cars! The basis of my analytical conclusion is premised on Tesla is trying to be honest with us. I believe, we both conclude for the person doing an intial order of their M3 tomorrow, they will receive their car this year. I do feel bad, there are lots of people on here upset. Frankly, I am crossing over to the upset phase. I am trying to temper my emotions with facts in evidence. So, I do sincerely apologize if I offended you. That was not my intent. I think facts matter, data matters. Beyond that..we have faith.
