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Best Guess for NSW Q3-2015 Tesla Registrations

Discussion in 'Australia & New Zealand' started by brewster, Sep 24, 2015.

  1. brewster

    brewster Member

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    #1 brewster, Sep 24, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2015

    Best Guess for NSW Q3-2015 Tesla Registrations

    In another week or so NSW Roads will announce their Registrations for Q3 2015.
    To provide a build up for the Oz component of their Tesla Registrations, what would be your best guess for NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available as a guide to sales.
    Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Predictor'

    The stats for NSW so far have been: (Total - 150 end Q2 2015)

    Q4 2014 - 65
    Q1 2015 - 54
    Q2 2015 - 31
    Q3 2015 - ??

    my guess for Q3 2015 is 70​ but I hope it is more.

    What is your best guess for Q3 2015 in NSW???

    Aussie Yank - 125
    cynix - 109
    Dborn - 98
    baillies - 88
    TesAus - 80
    Brewster - 70
    ICUDoc - 67
    Trav - 61
     
  2. TesAus

    TesAus Member

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    Hi Brewster,
    RMS will stop counting in a few days, but it typically takes about 6 weeks before the data gets updated from prior experience.

    I can't remember where, but some of us had already taken a guess I think. Given I can't remember it is probably best to start again as you have!!

    - - - Updated - - -

    I will go for 80
     
  3. Aussie Yank

    Aussie Yank Member

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    Trying to make up for my last large miss, and the fact that they were booked out the last few weeks, I'll go for 125
     
  4. ICUDoc

    ICUDoc Member

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    Oooh, me play, too:
     
  5. Dborn

    Dborn Confirmed

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    Every time I am at the service centre i see at least 12 cars ready for delivery. i am down there about once a week. my guess is 98.
     
  6. cynix

    cynix Member

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  7. Trav

    Trav Member

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    I am going with 61
     
  8. baillies

    baillies Member

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  9. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    I'll go for 65, the same as Q4 2014.
     
  10. istevens

    istevens Member

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    I reckon there's been quite a few D's in 3Q, so will go for 85 !!!
     
  11. ZTrekus

    ZTrekus Member

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    Around 200
     
  12. Barry C

    Barry C Member

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    Mine 88. There were at least 12 cars waiting at Richmond (Melbourne) a week or so ago. They are really coming in.
     
  13. ICUDoc

    ICUDoc Member

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    What is your best guess for Q3 2015 in NSW???

    Aussie Yank - 125
    cynix - 109
    Dborn - 98
    baillies - 88
    TesAus - 80
    Brewster - 70
    ICUDoc - 67
    Trav - 61

    So , what was the answer, guys???
     
  14. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    Still no Q3 rego data for NSW but I though I would post the figures so far



























    Quarter Year Number of Teslas Registered Increase on last period
    Q3 2014 2
    Q4 2014 65 +63
    Q1 2015 119 +54
    Q2 2015 150 +31
    Q3 2015 ??? ???
    The data is available here.

    P.S the original figure of 2 for Q3 2014 was deduced by subtracting the new registrations for 2014 from the total number of registrations in Q4 2014.
     
  15. brewster

    brewster Member

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    I assume Tesla Roadsters would be included in the total for Teslas. Anyone have an idea on the number of roadsters there are registered in NSW? Any?
     
  16. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    The only one I have seen was the red Series 2 Roadster driven by Jay McCormack when he was Sales manager.
    I imagine it was re-sold when he left and may have gone interstate.
    There was a blue (Non Autopilot) Model S that was registered earlier in the year for test drives and compliance, but again it may have been sold and gone interstate.
     
  17. TesAus

    TesAus Member

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    At the very least there were two electric blue roadsters in NSW that used to park in the domain car park. I think I also saw a black/dark grey one once.
     
  18. ZTrekus

    ZTrekus Member

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    So what are the official figures?
     
  19. TesAus

    TesAus Member

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    Still not been updated on the RMS website, it shouldn't be too much longer now, I think it took about 6 weeks from quarter end for them to go up last time.
     
  20. LGGD

    LGGD Active Member

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    Given there are no Teslas listed in the tally prior to Q3 2014 I would have to assume that the Roadsters were and still are listed under the 'other' category and that the Tesla total is only for Model S. The 2 in Q3 would have been the first of the demonstrators.

    There are at least three Roadsters currently registered in NSW that have been photographed in the Spotted thread, there are probably at least double, more likely triple or more that number in NSW.
     

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