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Best Guess for NSW Q2-2015 Aus Sales

Discussion in 'Australia & New Zealand' started by brewster, Jun 23, 2015.

  1. brewster

    brewster Member

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    #1 brewster, Jun 23, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2015
    In another week or so Tesla will announce their Sales for Q2 2015.
    To provide a build up for the Oz component of their sales, what would be your best guess for sales in NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available.
    Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Sales Predictor'

    Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the stats for NSW so far have been:

    Q4 2014 - 65
    Q1 2015 - 54
    Q2 2015 - ??

    Until we get the definitive answer for that number, my guess for Q2 2015 is 45

    I can update this first page with all your guesses until announced if that's okay 'cause that will effectively bumping this thread.
    Do we have an estimate for Australian numbers based on NSW Sales or actual Australian Sales of the Model S?

    What is your best guess for Q2 in NSW???


    Davide - 424
    Higgy - 340
    Aussie Yank - 110
    Trav - 65
    baillies - 60
    MangroveMike - 55
    brewster - 45


     
  2. Aussie Yank

    Aussie Yank Member

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    Since the total sales in Oz at the end of Q1 was approaching 250, and their outlook originally was 500 for the year...now pushing 1k for the year total, I think your numbers are light.

    NSW in Q2 110, total Oz at 200

    IMHO. Aussie Yank
     
  3. baillies

    baillies Member

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    I was going to go lower but after Aussie yanks insider info I will split the difference and go with 60. I think 1K is still possible as there is probably a lot of D backlog but these will not deliver till late Q3 with a big finish in Q4 when they clear the backlog. Also I think the Vic deliveries and orders will have picked up with the service centre opening.

    Hopefully they start rolling out superchargers and even better a 2016 plan to Adelaide with more regional locations near the capitals then we may have 2K sales in 2016 and a good network ready for the ☰. Would be good to have the Brisbane service centre at least started this year.
     
  4. Higgy

    Higgy Member

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    And my guestimate is just over 300 to the end of May - so expect around 340 by end of June.
     
  5. Davide

    Davide Member

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    424 my guess!
     
  6. brewster

    brewster Member

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    For Q2 NSW? Just checking:smile:
    My guess is very weak then :confused:
     
  7. raynewman

    raynewman Member

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    NSW Tesla registered vehicles as at 31 March 2015 was 119 and new registrations for 1 Jan to 31 March 2015 were 54. see Registration
     
  8. Trav

    Trav Member

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    Due to the delay in the RHD D models I am guessing only 65 for Q2
     
  9. MangroveMike

    MangroveMike Member

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    55 - I think there will be backlogs into two following quarters for S70D and P85D. Hmmm is that figure sales or deliveries ? I guess it's the same thing as it's only fully paid for upon delivery.
     
  10. Dborn

    Dborn Confirmed

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    The question here is what are we counting? If I go in today and order a D, is that a sale or not? After all, I will have to put down a deposit. I note that there is a serious distinction made in the USA in relation to this issue for accounting purposes.
    I would regard it as a sale. Others including accountants would possibly not. If it is a sale then all the D orders are sales otherwise not and that would make a huge difference to the estimate. Therefore, I would guess either 120 or 40, depending on what you accept.
     
  11. brewster

    brewster Member

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    The number will be based on the report of sales for NSW per Transport of NSW found at this link: Registration as indicated by 'raynewman'.
     
  12. TesAus

    TesAus Member

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    If we are using the RTA published "registrations" as our source of sales data (in the absence of anything better) then that only reflects cars registered in that period. I don't know how we could determine "sales" if it was measured as deposits placed.

    My guess (to be measured against RTA registrations!) is 73.
     
  13. Mark E

    Mark E Member

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    You can never recognise the revenue until you have shipped the product - even if you (as a vendor) get to keep any deposits.
     
  14. brewster

    brewster Member

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    #14 brewster, Jun 24, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2015
    Update

    Update ....
     
  15. Gabz

    Gabz Member

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    ok i'll take 50 new registrations (won't call them sales as it may include demo vehicles)
     
  16. houdini

    houdini Member

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    I'm going 75
     
  17. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    I'll throw my hat in at 52.
     
  18. brewster

    brewster Member

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    #18 brewster, Jun 25, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2015
    Update ....

    quote_icon.png Originally Posted by brewster viewpost-right.png
    In another week or so Tesla will announce their Sales for Q2 2015.
    To provide a build up for the Oz component of their sales, what would be your best guess for sales in NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available.
    Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Sales Predictor'

    Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the stats for NSW so far have been:

    Q4 2014 - 65
    Q1 2015 - 54
    Q2 2015 - ??

    Until we get the definitive answer for that number, my guess for Q2 2015 is 45

    I can update this first page with all your guesses until announced if that's okay 'cause that will effectively bumping this thread.
    Do we have an estimate for Australian numbers based on NSW Sales or actual Australian Sales of the Model S?

    What is your best guess for Q2 in NSW???


    Davide - 424
    Higgy - 340
    Aussie Yank - 110
    houdini - 75
    TesAus - 73
    Trav - 65
    baillies - 60
    MangroveMike - 55
    meloccom - 52
    Gabz - 50
    brewster - 45
    lonewolf313 - 44
    Dborn - 40



     
  19. lonewolf313

    lonewolf313 Member

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    I'll have a go at 44 (a combination of my 2 favourite numbers)
     
  20. baillies

    baillies Member

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    #20 baillies, Aug 6, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2015
    Not all of the numbers seem to be up but the tesla registrations at end of q2 are 150 up from 119 q1 so I guess Dborn is closest with 44. If the orders are close to 1000 then there must be a lot coming in the second half with the D and/or the NSW is not as big a share of AU as previously.

    Update now showing 90 new registrations for H1 2015 so 90 - 54 = 36 new registrations, so Dborn is still the WINNER! I wonder where the other 5 have gone? I guess probably just interstate transfers.
     

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