This is correct, part of the decline will be due to cycling losses and another part of the decline will be due to limited calendar life. Even though these are custom-built cells, we don't know to what extent they have been optimized for EV applications. Should the cells be similar to regular laptop batteries, then assuming calendar life of six to seven years is a prudent thing to do. Calendar life itself is highly dependent on storage conditions and having a thermal management system, which can be found in all vehicles Tesla designed to date, should help maximize the useful life of the pack.
NREL did a study on vehicle preconditioning, which includes data on average capacity fade on page 6. I've copied the relevant graph below.
Thanks for the graph and information. However, this went over my head. Can you summarize this for non-technical people like myself