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Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker
- Thread starter bhzmark
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- Model 3 Tesla Inc.
DanL3
Member
0 to volume is very difficult. I do not see a miracle coming. Tesla will most likely exit Q1 around 1000 per week and spin it to a higher number for the Q1 report, just before the push out all the delivery estimates again.
DanL3
Member
Interesting that Bloomberg is not reporting the 9xxx VIN that we have seen reported on this forum. I expect that the Bloomberg computer model holds the production numbers down when the VINs do not show up.
And now from 599 to 2500 in less than 4 weeks. I think I'm getting 20-20 vision on my delivery date. It's 2020.
TT97
Active Member
The 599 is very disheartening unless the reason for the slowdown has to do with the new equipment arrived from Tesla Grohmann and they are down while it's being installed in Reno. If so, then production should ramp up quickly shortly thereafter - if not, then we will likely hear another announcement on delayed production.
The Bloomberg Model is highly unreliable. For one, they estimate production totals based on VIN registrations (“method 1”) which is squishy. They are also adjusting down from fishy estimates from when they first put it online.
If there is anything to shutdown rumors, that makes their numbers completely off, IMHO.
Again, if there was a shutdown, then their number should be “0” for as long as the shutdown lasts.
When the line is up and running again is when the true rate of production will be evident. It will likely exceed ~600 and surprise people.
I have an engineering source working on battery pack production who is very confident on hitting end of Q1 target. Just relaying that info.
If (s)he is confident about hitting the Q1 target that makes me wonder if they are holding back car production in order to store up enough battery packs for an end of March, 1 week surge. This would allow Elon to say they met their target.
...and that would be a ticket to jail time as soon as a whistleblower leaks it. No there will be no fraud. Elon Musk has a lot of charm. He'll just fire off another Falcon, or tout another mind-bending concept, or create a new boy-toy (flamethrower style), or just say we are past the hurdles and are shooting for 2500/week in Q3 and 5000/week in Q4. It's all a spin. I still think it's 2020 for the SR.
The Bloomberg tracker appears to be slightly off. They estimate that 9039 have been produced as of today. However, people are reporting that they do not get VINs assigned until after production of the vehicle. We are hearing reports of VINs in the 94XX range. That means that the tracker is about 400 cars behind. And at the tracker's current rate of 599, that is over 4 days behind.
DanL3
Member
Yes, I agree that right now the Bloomberg 599/week is behind reality. But the 1000/week that Bloomberg reported a couple of weeks ago was ahead of reality.
It looks to me like we are looking at a goal to make a sustained 1000/week for the last 2 or 3 weeks in Q1. The 2500/week goal is still way out in the future. The goal of 5000/week is not happening until 2019. I am optimistic that Tesla will make 5000/week and that the Model 3 will be a big success, But it will take a lot longer to do that.
When they solve the current problem and make 1000/week for 3 weeks in a row, Then that will stress the supply chain more than it has ever seen in the past, and so they will have new problems to resolve.
This is not a battery issue alone. This is a issue with the entire supply chain. when they solve one problem, they will never shoot up drastically in volume. They will only go up to where the next problem comes to the surface. Progress will be in little steps.
It looks to me like we are looking at a goal to make a sustained 1000/week for the last 2 or 3 weeks in Q1. The 2500/week goal is still way out in the future. The goal of 5000/week is not happening until 2019. I am optimistic that Tesla will make 5000/week and that the Model 3 will be a big success, But it will take a lot longer to do that.
When they solve the current problem and make 1000/week for 3 weeks in a row, Then that will stress the supply chain more than it has ever seen in the past, and so they will have new problems to resolve.
This is not a battery issue alone. This is a issue with the entire supply chain. when they solve one problem, they will never shoot up drastically in volume. They will only go up to where the next problem comes to the surface. Progress will be in little steps.
Depends on what the differential volume between bottlenecks is. It could be a large step. There is also the factor that they have been receiving shipments from suppliers this entire time, so Tesla will have quite the parts inventory once they get the packs in house. If there is a limiting suppliers, we may see a large production jump followed by a slow down.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Or a small step.
Given all the problems till date, it makes sense that its likely we'll see some more hiccups till Tesla hits sustained 5k/week. It won't happen in a month or quarter.
colinrego
Member
I suppose one question that many of us still waiting for an invite to configure have is ‘are the delays in ramping up production to the forecasted/publicized velocity enough that there will be another push back on the delivery estimates in our accounts?’ Given that we really don’t know how Tesla determined their estimated delivery windows for us, it seems as though we will just have to wait and see (and hope for the best).
DanL3
Member
Yes, Absolutely there will be push backs. The good news is that Tesla will hit the 200,000 delivery to the USA later than expected.
I predict that those with June-Aug predictions now will be pushed back to after the AWD come out and that will cause them to wait for October for a $49k+ car. If the $35k car is released, demand will go up, and they get pushed to early 2019.
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