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Brexit

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Buckminster, Dec 6, 2018.

  1. markharro

    markharro Member

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    I'm afraid this is fantasy land....it's nothing to do with Ireland's expectations. This is the power of a single massive trading bloc ie the EU against a single enfeebled country ie the UK. It's only going to end one way and that's not in favour of the UK. The EU have no need or indeed reason to help us dig ourselves out of the cesspit of Brexit.
     
  2. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    I'm a remainer and think we will definitely be worse off than the EU. However, this is moving towards a deal that resembles something closer to a no deal.
    My point was regarding Ireland. In a no deal situation, surely they will be worse off having the UK between them and the EU.

    A little bit like how Scotland would become if they left... What is your position on Scexit following the oil meltdown?
     
  3. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    UK warns of 'very little progress' in EU talks

    "Very little progress" has been made in the latest round of UK-EU trade talks, the UK government has said.

    The UK's negotiator David Frost said a far-reaching free trade agreement could be agreed before the end of the year "without major difficulties".

    But he said the process was being held up by the EU's desire to "bind" the UK to its laws and standards and by disagreements over fishing rights.
     
  4. JupiterMan

    JupiterMan Member

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  5. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Boris knows that the EU want a deal badly. He is still strong politically and can hold out to the wire and beyond if he gets a US deal. However, he has two risks.

    1. Covid goes away - Brexit becomes a big topic - why would you ruin the already ruined economy?
    2. Covid 2nd wave and he loses political credibility - are you crazy? Get an extension!
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Boris does have to face the electorate for another 4.5 years.

    The CDU/CSU must face the German electorate by October '21 and Macron face the French electorate by April '22.
     
  7. markharro

    markharro Member

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    Apologies, I had taken you for a frothing at the mouth leave voter.

    Why? They will still be part of a massive trading bloc with a generally progressive agenda.

    I agree that the oil price isn't helping Scotland's own independence cause. It will, however, rebound. The mood for independence up here though is connected to emotion to quite a large degree. In our case it's the opposite of the racist sentiment that fuelled brexit along with a deluded sense of self-importance. Here it's a desire to truly honour the victory in Europe achieved not so long ago by preserving our European bond coupled with a two finger salute to the right wing populists who are dismantling the UK for their own greedy and ideological purposes. There is reason as well though. Small nations can and do prosper within the EU. The UK may strike some "great" trade deals with the likes of Nigeria and Singapore but the idea that they will get any deal on anything other than dismal terms with their special pal the USA under Trump is not one for serious contemplation.

    Oh and Covid is not going to go away this year any time soon. It seems to me that the only way there can be any gradual return to something approaching normality involves the massive scale testing and tracing infrastructure that we simply don't have atm. It will take all of the resources of a competent government to have this in place by the end of the year I suspect but we have BJ and his gang in charge! Devoting any time to even continuing the pretence of working towards some all inclusive deal in the 7 months left is, to me, criminally irresponsible.

    There is still time for the public to realise how duped they have been by the far right gang currently masquerading as the Tory party and get rid of them: if only because of their incompetence and historic under-investment in the resources that we can now see as so important to a society - it's health system and workers. It would be interesting to see a poll now on the passion for brexit - my guess is that a clear majority would want to scrap the insane project if that were an option now and an option it still is.
     
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  8. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    I'm a centrist and not overly passionate on politics. Because we are so polarised, my views look opposite to everyone I meet... What's more, I tend to see both sides of an argument and want to build bridges rather than knock them down. I'd love to have a simple life as a lefty - complain about everything and be miserable, but I just can't shake the thought that capitalists might be onto something.

    It's going to fascinating to see what happens on Brexit. Will the people care? - it is the forgotten subject at the moment. Will Boris head towards a no deal and will the EU cave? A temporary 5 or 10 year deal would seem sensible to me. Free trade for ten years. In the mean time, UK can diversify away from regulations and the EU can rid their supply chains from British products.
     
  9. MC3OZ

    MC3OZ Active Member

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    As an outside observer, some sort of deal 5-10 year free trade deal seems sensible...

    I do see why the English wanted to leave, having lived 6 months in Scotland in the 1980s even then most Scots seemed to be very vocal about not liking rule from Westminster... so I see Brexit as making some type of split up of the UK more likely......

    Ignoring the political side I don't see what the UK stands to gain on the economic side, because the EU is a logical and local trading partner and the EU is very likely to place tariffs on British products sooner or later.

    But in particular I think there is a chance that another European city will supplant London as the major financial centre... the EU is a bigger financial base Europeans will migrate trading to European Exchanges, Banking might also move,... and even Insurance... not overnight...

    Having also lived 6 months in London one of the attractions was to cosmopolitan nature of the city, let's face it, the attraction wasn't the weather... It is important to remain a place where foreigners find it attractive to work and live, otherwise you wake up one day the city is no longer cosmopolitan, and the exciting action is happening elsewhere...

    So all in all I guess my point is, I'm not sure Brexit is worth all the effort... but having voted for it you need to finish the job.
     
  10. markharro

    markharro Member

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    "Not sure"! Probably £100 billion lost to the economy even before Covid and £100s of billions to follow due to our inevitable loss of favourable trading terms and general diminishment as a country in global terms.

    "Finish the job" - let's say you blindfold a person and agree with them to take them by the hand for a walk into pastures green. Just by the gate you take the bindfold off and show them that they are standing on a clifftop - maybe the white cliffs of dover let's say. Will they then gladly jump with you into the channel? I doubt it.

    The people were blinded by the lies of charlatans like Cummings and Johnson and the recent scandal over the weekend should finally wake up even the dimmest leave supporter to the reality of the character of the individuals who led the brexit charge. Self - centered selfish individuals with zero regard to the welfare of the public or country. It's not too late to stop the disaster that is brexit if enough people wake up to how we got to where we are atm.
     
  11. MC3OZ

    MC3OZ Active Member

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    I get that point, I never would have voted for it, and I'm surprised the British public did.

    However, are there opinion polls showing a majority of the British public want to change the decision?

    The UK has had plenty of opportunity to change their mind, simply dithering and delaying might not help...

    I'm 100% sure in around 15-20 years time the British public will all realise Brexit was a total train wreck, they might apply to re-enter the EU and be a much more constructive member.

    While it is harsh, sometimes the best learning experience is living what you voted for, then people will be more careful with their vote...

    This is a problem for many Western democracies, people are often voting for bad governments, and bad decisions, yes the politicians and their allies have found a way of misleading the voters... There is no simple quick fix which makes the electorate more informed....

    IMO a substantial chunk of the division in the West is some attempting to prop up the Fossil Fuel industry while others want to address Climate Change... It has been necessary to totally distort the truth, spread distrust and division to convince the public FF are still a good idea and CC isn't real...

    There is a price to pay for this deception, division, inefficiency and loss of competitiveness.

    But the UK doesn't fit into this narrative, it is making very good progress on CC and de-carbonising the grid...

    Another source of division in the west probably comes from Russian backed social media campaigns, Brexit fits this narrative like hand hand in a glove IMO. Again people need to wise up and sense when social media is manipulating their emotions, spreading hate, fear and distrust,...

    Whatever the cause I can't remember a time when the UK and the US were so divided, so focused on internal battles, and so tied to the past, also tied to a myth of what they think were were, rather than what they can become. When your vision for the future is the past, that never ends well.
     
  12. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Brexit itself has happened. There is no way that it will be reversed in the next few years. It's also the only way to bring the nation together. Brexit will either be a success or a failure; either way the winners will turn the public over a 5 year period.

    It should not be forgotten that the EU is weaker than it was just a year ago. Low tourism is going to be very tough - combined with a decimation of German car manufacture. This all plays into the brexiteers hands. The UK may well be worse off in 10 years but Brexit could still appear a success relative to the EU.
     
  13. Singer3000

    Singer3000 Member

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    Brexit is a mosquito flying into the windscreen of the Thanos sized spaceship of cv-19. The localisation of global supply chains, the unwinding of easy international travel and the biggest demand shock in recorded human history have already now happened. Who cares about Brexit?

    CV-19 is also likely to test to destruction the tension between national governments and the unified currency. See German constitutional court rulings and the ever more precarious state of Italian solvency. There are now obvious and compelling reasons why something resembling Single Market membership for the UK is a terrible idea. You don’t want to be dragged into the bailout. And you want more freedom to intervene in your own economy. Even Keir Starmer is dropping Brexit as a campaign theme.

    So either there’s a mutually agreeable deal on tariffs or the UK walks away. No one is going to care about this either way in 2024 except social media extremists.
     
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  14. MC3OZ

    MC3OZ Active Member

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    #854 MC3OZ, May 25, 2020
    Last edited: May 26, 2020
    What products does the UK export? and what are the markets?

    My impression is the EU is a very important market for UK products... tourism is also important for the UK and a lot of tourists would be Europeans...

    In spite of the woes the German car makers will have with COVID-19 and the move to EVs I think Daimler and VW will get their act together and survive, German engineering is still world class..

    Not that the EU doesn't have problems, yes it is a mixed bag, but it is still the world's 3rd largest economy, with a lot of diversity...

    The Brexiters can spin things how they like but how the UK economy is tracking post Brexit is all that matters.. I actually think the first 10-20 years will be hardest... if the UK persists with Brexit they might be able to make it work... but that requires a culture of innovation and genuine international competitiveness, like Australia, the UK, needs to complete with the US, China and the EU... it can be done in some sectors but you need an edge... .which has to be the best products at a competitive price...

    Just taking the car industry as an example, Australia no longer has a car industry, I'm not sure how much of the UK car industry is left.

    Australia can and does always fall back on abundant natural resources, not that we are in any way well managed.

    But we can try selling electricity to Singapore:-
    Sun Cable plans Darwin big battery, precursor to world's biggest solar and storage project | RenewEconomy
     
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  15. markharro

    markharro Member

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    I wouldn't bet against it. The way the government is mishandling the current crisis and now with this debacle over Mr Cummings - Labour suddenly has credibility now as well. No way will they get their great trade deal this year: no matter the protestations there will be delay and that delay will come as the dust settles from this current crisis with the reputation of this shambles of a government in tatters.
     
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  16. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Cummings gate is starting to blow over. They will probably get away with it but significantly damaged. Not sure Starmer has much street cred yet. I assume that you want us to get a deal from US etc.? Just think it is unlikely because Trump will play tough?

    Boris may move to the right to regain some support. He is falling between the cracks right now.
     
  17. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  18. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Joint Statement by the Anglosphere on Hong Kong.

    Joint Statement on Hong Kong - United States Department of State
     
  19. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Subscribe to read | Financial Times
    It seems that a deal might be done by placing tariffs on certain products. Given that UK has a trade deficit, at a macro level this is worse for the EU. Seems likely UK will win on fishing rights and state aid (level playing field) using this tactic.

    Trump will want to unveil a trade deal in the run up to the election at the most impactful time. Sometime in October? If there is one to unveil... This will coincide nicely with the EU talks.
     
  20. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    No offense, but most Americans care less than zero about a trade deal with the UK. Even less so swing voters in Battleground States. They don't see it as having a significant effect on the US economy much less their local economy and their lives.

    The only people who really care are the Cosmopolitans on the West Coast and Northeast. Most Cosmopolitans are on the Left and want to punish the UK for leaving what could potentially be the kernel for a secular global government. So no other polity ever considers voting to leave again.

    Atlanticist would very much like to a see a US-UK trade deal. There are too few us to make a difference in any State.
     
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