Brexit

[Buckminster]

Brexit trade talks set to resume despite fallout
So UK have threatened to renege on NI deal if a deal is not done. Will that be enough to get the EU to back down on state aid and fish?

I do think that the UK could threaten the single market a bit which is why the EU should push for a deeper deal. However, we are unlikely to provide much state aid. Also, does anyone seriously think we are going to become a nation of fishermen? Both these issues are more about the principle, prior promises and sovereignty.

 

[Buckminster]

Parliament have just voted for Boris' plan to renege on the the Irish backstop. This would only be invoked if we don't get a deal which is becoming increasingly likely.

 

[Buckminster]

Various reports that both sides have made concessions (possibly UK to retain fishing rights). Due to enter tunnel in next week or so.

 

[Buckminster]

Brexit negotiations have been extended by a month. Getting the EU to agree with one another is going to be the next big hurdle. France need to agree to losing UK fishing rights in 3 years for instance.

 

[Buckminster]

Brexit: Trade talks with the EU are over, says No 10
Both sides digging in. Macron has a choice of how to lose the next election:

1. Do a deal and lose the fish
2. No deal and lose the fish

We have no boats so they will end up getting the fish fairly cheaply - maybe that will get him out of jail.

 

[pz1975]

Remember when this was the biggest macro news story out there? Seems like a long time ago.

 

[Buckminster]

Apparently the Japan deal has convinced the EU that the UK won't be looking to heavily subsidise industry. EU have started to compromise including leaning on the French to cave on fishing rights.

 

[Buckminster]

House Dem
Senate GOP

So what are our chances of getting a trade deal if Trump wins but doesn't have the house?

 

[Buckminster]

So all change. Likelihood of EU deal = 80%
Required for US deal with Biden.
Likelihood then of a US deal with Biden and Dem congress = 80% * 80% = 64%?

Is this reasonable?

 

[Buckminster]

Significant news recently.

Cummings has been pretty much sacked - EU smell blood. Boris will now pivot further to the centre. Will Gove retain his significant powers?

Talk of a new fishing compromise with EU to review. Brexiteers will forgive Boris for this.

Deadline delayed to early December. Likelihood of a deal by Christmas - 85%?

 

[Buckminster]

Boris has been contact with someone with COVID - self isolating for the 2nd time....

 

[EVNow]

What are you reading in UK ? Apparently Biden delivered stern message to Boris. Never a good idea to align with an unpopular president. Quite a few countries are going to find out more about that soon.

 

[Favguy]

What are you reading in UK ? Apparently Biden delivered stern message to Boris. Never a good idea to align with an unpopular president. Quite a few countries are going to find out more about that soon.

Much as in the US these days, you can derive entirely different world views dependent on the increasingly polarised politics of of your preferred media. Generally the further right you go in your media choice, the more lies and distortions of reality become prevalent.

With increasing popularism the UK has suffered extreme damage over the last few years, dating back to before the disastrous decision to give a largely uninformed and manipulated populace a referendum on leaving the EU.

 

[petit_bateau]

With increasing popularism the UK has suffered extreme damage over the last few years, dating back to before the disastrous decision to give a largely uninformed and manipulated populace a referendum on leaving the EU.

"If you think education is expensive, you should try ignorance" [anon, If You Think Education Is Expensive, Try Ignorance – Quote Investigator]

A lot of countries have been trying out ignorance of late. Some get a 4-year rethink. Others are finding the ignorants threw away the key.

regards, pb/dspp

 

[Buckminster]

Talk of Brexit deal breakthrough: Handle with care
This suggests that the deal in negotiation is a hard Brexit. Zero tariff, zero quotas on most products is surely a medium boiled breakfast at least..

 

[Buckminster]

EU will not fall into Brexit 'negotiating trap', UK told
It's still all about the fish. Not sure how much Boris cares. Maybe this is his Falklands moment...

 

[Buckminster]

Breakthrough on fishing rights as Brexit talks hang in the balance

 

[Buckminster]

I posted this almost 2 years ago:

Lefties should have voted for the May deal when they had their chance.

Now there is a 80% chance of no deal apparently!

Boris should hand over the fish and level playing field for ten to twenty years to get the deal done. We have little need for either.

Good argument that this keeps our sovereignty.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

So it looks like Boris caved on everything save fisheries?