3 batteries is not economic insanity if you have enough solar to fill them, you use the power overnight, you have low FIT, and high import costs.
Well, YMMV, but I ran the numbers (exactly) in my spreadsheet based on my 5-minute usage pattern. The payback perod for 1 battery is not good in my instance, and it is likely that a second battery would not pay itself back in my lifetime, let alone a third.
In my case for the most recent 12 months of usage based on my current tariffs:
- Peak discharge 527 kWh = $236 saved
- Shoulder discharge 1397 kWh = $290 saved
- Offpeak discharge 859 kWh = $105 saved
- Foregone FIT 3007 kWh = $150 foregone
- Net value of battery = $481 p.a.
- Payback time based on $12.5k installed cost = 26 years
The payback period is remarkably consistent regardless of which time period of data I look at, as long it is at least a year long.
There’s a couple of things that contribute to this. My battery is cycled an average of 0.62 times per day. If it got higher cycling then the payback time would be shorter. That would require a larger solar array (not possible on my roof) and a higher household energy consumption (which runs counter to being more energy efficient). In my case, a second battery would be cycled way less than the first, so the payback time would really blow out.
The fact that a battery results in forgone FIT also hurts. If FIT was zero, payback time improves to 19.8 years. A higher FIT makes the payback time worse as you forego more revenue. If utilities start charging for export, then that would help battery economics. An export penalty of $0.21/kWh would reduce payback time of the battery to 10 years but increase the payback time of the solar array.
And somewhat perversely, getting a good low-cost ToU tariff also hurts. Battery payback time is reduced if you get yourself on a really expensive energy plan. One of the most expensive plans I found was from EnergyAustralia, and it increased my previous 12 months grid bill from $880 to $1098, reducing the payback time of the battery to 22.5 years. But of course adding $218 to your annual bill to increase the value of energy saved by the battery to $74 p.a. is dumb.
I have no regrets getting the battery - my decision was not based on economics.