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Buying a Used 2018 Performance - Questions

BGDDYKWL

Member
Jul 28, 2019
55
14
Chandler
Just my opinion, but seems closer to being cheap than it seems like a good deal.

It doesn’t have FSD (do any?), so a better comparison is 55k for a new one without FSD imo. The delta is basically in the needed FSD upgrade costs. A few thousand more for upgrading the new one vs upgrading the used one. Given current interest rates have me financing rather than cash, those savings are somewhat eroded by the higher used interest rate. At some point, there should also be a general public residual value delta that favors a 2020 over a 2018, even if similar mileage. Add in some warranty life differences, the risks inherent to getting basically a rental, and I’d pass and go new without FSD.

Perhaps I’m undervaluing the need to buy new with FSD. Maybe it’s really around the corner this time. From my experience in buying Tesla’s, that FSD option is a loan to Tesla and you’ll need to pay to upgrade to the latest in the future anyways.
Great post. I could not agree more on all points. I'd go 2020 no FSD all day long over this 2018 option, for exactly the reasons you mention.

And not to derail the thread, but completely agree on FSD as well. It is absolutely not worth the $8k, nor is it worth the speculative gamble that it might be down the line. Not to mention that feature does not have the same depreciation curve as the rest of the car. The market values FSD at $3-$4k right now, so you essentially take a 50% hit the second you drive the car off the lot. Used I think it'll hold that value so there's not a ton of risk, but it's not even worth $4k IMO.

In summary for the OP, I'd definitely go brand new with no FSD. If you were to sell the car in two years just as an example, my guess is you'd get REAL close to the entire difference in price back, meaning the brand new option didn't really "cost" you more.
 
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Clark_Kent

Member
Jun 23, 2020
314
230
Smallville, KS
Great post. I could not agree more on all points. I'd go 2020 no FSD all day long over this 2018 option, for exactly the reasons you mention.

And not to derail the thread, but completely agree on FSD as well. It is absolutely not worth the $8k, nor is it worth the speculative gamble that it might be down the line. Not to mention that feature does not have the same depreciation curve as the rest of the car. The market values FSD at $3-$4k right now, so you essentially take a 50% hit the second you drive the car off the lot. Used I think it'll hold that value so there's not a ton of risk, but it's not even worth $4k IMO.

In summary for the OP, I'd definitely go brand new with no FSD. If you were to sell the car in two years just as an example, my guess is you'd get REAL close to the entire difference in price back, meaning the brand new option didn't really "cost" you more.
The Tesla fanboys will have you burned at the stake for such an utterance; however, I don't disagree with any of what you said. In my perspective FSD is close to vaporware at this point. You're fronting Tesla a sum of money for them to deliver an unknown product at an unspecified time in the future. Not a popular position to take on TMC but I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwise. FSD is not leaps and bounds better than AutoPilot at this point in time. When the gap becomes much larger I will make a decision if I want to purchase it even if it's considerably more than the current $8,000 price tag.
 

BlindPass

Member
Jul 23, 2020
536
369
Florida
The Tesla fanboys will have you burned at the stake for such an utterance; however, I don't disagree with any of what you said. In my perspective FSD is close to vaporware at this point. You're fronting Tesla a sum of money for them to deliver an unknown product at an unspecified time in the future. Not a popular position to take on TMC but I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwise. FSD is not leaps and bounds better than AutoPilot at this point in time. When the gap becomes much larger I will make a decision if I want to purchase it even if it's considerably more than the current $8,000 price tag.
Agree.

That’s not to say FSD won’t at some point soon be incredibly valuable. But buying at $8k now doesn’t necessarily lock in your cost, and then there’s TVM. To get the used car up to FSD isn’t too much less now, let alone whenever we actually have FSD at Level 4 that can be monetized by the owner.

It’s already amazing compared to what was capable even just a few years ago. But I don’t see it being worth 8k in the next few years, with the technological and regulatory challenges. I’m assuming the price once it’s actually FSD/Level4 will be high, subscriptions even more so. It will be the barrier to entry. Another question is will Tesla allow users to extract value from FSD? Right now they need data to feed their AI, but at some level millions of FSD cars could cannibalize new car sales. Will Tesla ask for more to use FSD as robotaxis?
 

KyleM3

Member
Jul 21, 2020
74
29
PA
Yeah, I’m not heavily in on going this route. FSD was never a big sell for me, but would I take it? Sure. The used dealership that has it is annoying as all hell and every time I state a valid reason on why the price is too high, they get all goofy about selling it fast to someone else (in which I respond feel free). The VW dealer clearly has no knowledge on Tesla’s. They didn’t know the difference between FSD/EAP, yet advertised to me as having FSD. The mileage is still a question (500 mile difference on listing vs. CarFax). And, a small thing, the damn listing still has the car listed as blue. I made them aware and they still haven’t changed it.
 

Jedi2155

Model 3 has Arrived.
Jul 6, 2018
1,674
1,397
Upland, CA
Keep in mind that EAP alone won't get you the HW3 upgrade. You will get functions such as smart summon though but not all the new UI goodies that comes with HW3.
 

AdamVIP

Member
Mar 4, 2019
528
302
California
I think the general Tesla buying public has stated with their dollars that FSD isnt worth the current cost. Theres far more without than with it.

On a note about the 2018 vs 2020, I'm inclined to go with the 2018 if the condition is good and range is holding up well. In late 2019 Tesla started pulling all sorts of stuff from the car like the homelink, bag hooks, ambient lights, dimming side mirrors and frunk mats. Plus EAP while not full FSD does have some features that are active now and useful so its buying a known quantity. Of course you need to get the price in the right spot as well.
 
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BlindPass

Member
Jul 23, 2020
536
369
Florida
I think the general Tesla buying public has stated with their dollars that FSD isnt worth the current cost. Theres far more without than with it.

On a note about the 2018 vs 2020, I'm inclined to go with the 2018 if the condition is good and range is holding up well. In late 2019 Tesla started pulling all sorts of stuff from the car like the homelink, bag hooks, ambient lights, dimming side mirrors and frunk mats. Plus EAP while not full FSD does have some features that are active now and useful so its buying a known quantity. Of course you need to get the price in the right spot as well.
Unless you drive the car until it’s worth $0, the resale price is critical in determining value, which was the OPs objective. Are the early features better able to later be monetized than having HW3?

Perhaps, for as fast as FSD hardware and software changes, I’m not sure how much either HW2.5 or HW3 will matter in 5-10 years. They’ll probably be on HW5 or greater by the time resale value is important. In the near term though, as the general public is still using the old model year convention for value, HW3 and two years should get enough to offset the slight increase in sticker cost of going new.
 

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