Not sure about the legislature "wimping out", if anything, they keep raising the bar over time. The original RPS was passed back in 2002, with the goal being 33% by 2020. Note that it was initially lower, but progress was so good they raised it to 33%. SB350 in 2015 set the next goal to 50% by 2030. The new proposal is 100% by 2045, not enacted yet.
How is the progress?
Total power in 2016 was 230,489,063 TWh, while renewable was 49,406,647 TWh, or 21.4%. That leaves 4 years to get to 33%. Solar Photovoltaic production in 2016 increased by 5,024,174 TWh. Four more years of the same yearly SPV increase (ignoring other renewable) gets the 49,406,647 up to 69,503,343, which would be 30.2%. So the 2020 goal should be no problem, because this isn't even counting other renewable growth, and is not counting on any increase in SPV growth, and it is indeed growing year over year.
For 50% by 2030, there are 10 more years to add another 39,183,140 TWh. Thats 3,918,314 TWh per year, which is under the 5,024,174 adde in 2016. So again, shouldn't be a problem.
Note that these numbers do not include residential solar, which ends up decreasing the total amount of power consumed over time. Also note that the RPS mandate coupled with the 30% Federal tax credit, has precisely done what it was intended to do, namely, decrease the cost of renewable power so that it eventually gets lower than other non-renewable sources. We are pretty much there, and all indications are that we will be there very shortly. At that point, simple economics take over and there will never be another fossil fuel plant constructed.
100% is tougher since you need quite a bit of additional storage for periods where renewables alone can't cut it. I would think that even around 2030+ there may be some gas peaker plants required. If battery storage cost decreases as fast as SPV has, then no peaker plants would be needed.
My $0.02
RT
