Cancelling my reservation

[jbcarioca]

But my avatar is electric.
Robin

But your username is almost as old as I am, so you really need and electric airplane to replace the Navion, don't you?
OTOH, Le Jamais Contente was nearly as quick as the Navion.
It certainly was the new Tesla Roadster of it's day!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I probably don't understand the process but I am confused. Unless someone has already found an alternative vehicle what would be the point of cancelling unless they desperately need the 1000 bucks. Can you simply choose to not configure and pass when the email comes. It seems to me that just keeping the reservation allows for more flexibility. We are currently struggling between a new 2020 or 2021 Leaf SL with 60 KW battery or a 2020 or 2021 Tesla3. If we want the Tesla we know we have to put our name on the list in the next 6 months if we want it to show up on time. Quite honestly we are leaning towards the Leaf a bit because of things like hatchback, heated steering wheel, all round cameras, rear heated seats etc. We currently have a leaf and you get used to certain things. But who knows, maybe we'll get one of each. My point is we'll lend Elon a thousand bucks for a couple years just to have that option. Comments welcome on the strategy above.

Question. Once the call to configure comes can one kick it back 6 months or whatever? We won't by the car till June 2020 at the earliest.

Thanks in advance

John

 

[ohmman]

We are the most gullible generation of the modern era.

 

[McRat]

I probably don't understand the process but I am confused. Unless someone has already found an alternative vehicle what would be the point of cancelling unless they desperately need the 1000 bucks. Can you simply choose to not configure and pass when the email comes. It seems to me that just keeping the reservation allows for more flexibility. We are currently struggling between a new 2020 or 2021 Leaf SL with 60 KW battery or a 2020 or 2021 Tesla3. If we want the Tesla we know we have to put our name on the list in the next 6 months if we want it to show up on time. Quite honestly we are leaning towards the Leaf a bit because of things like hatchback, heated steering wheel, all round cameras, rear heated seats etc. We currently have a leaf and you get used to certain things. But who knows, maybe we'll get one of each. My point is we'll lend Elon a thousand bucks for a couple years just to have that option. Comments welcome on the strategy above.

Question. Once the call to configure comes can one kick it back 6 months or whatever? We won't by the car till June 2020 at the earliest.

Thanks in advance

John

I 'believe' (opps) the majority of reservationists hold your opinion. But there is a percentage that were looking for a $25k 'super EV' (California pricing) when they reserved. Perhaps some will be able to acquire one, but at this point it does not look good for the majority of those folk.

Terrible to say, but I'm crossing my fingers that there is a lot of deferrals or cancellations of early reservationists. I was never expecting a $35k (- credits) Model 3. Even if they push the 3LRD w/AP2 and PUP to the front, I'll take it.

 

[206er]

I probably don't understand the process but I am confused. Unless someone has already found an alternative vehicle what would be the point of cancelling unless they desperately need the 1000 bucks. Can you simply choose to not configure and pass when the email comes. It seems to me that just keeping the reservation allows for more flexibility. We are currently struggling between a new 2020 or 2021 Leaf SL with 60 KW battery or a 2020 or 2021 Tesla3. If we want the Tesla we know we have to put our name on the list in the next 6 months if we want it to show up on time. Quite honestly we are leaning towards the Leaf a bit because of things like hatchback, heated steering wheel, all round cameras, rear heated seats etc. We currently have a leaf and you get used to certain things. But who knows, maybe we'll get one of each. My point is we'll lend Elon a thousand bucks for a couple years just to have that option. Comments welcome on the strategy above.

Question. Once the call to configure comes can one kick it back 6 months or whatever? We won't by the car till June 2020 at the earliest.

Thanks in advance

John

In my case, the $35k version of the car - plus full federal tax credit - was the only one I wanted. I could be wrong, and sorta hope that I am for the sake of others who still have a reservation, but I'm doubtful that the $35k version will be available in even "late 2018" or "early 2019", if ever. Obviously I'm also assuming that the full federal tax credit for Tesla will be gone if/when the $35k version releases.

 

[N5329K]

But your username is almost as old as I am, so you really need and electric airplane to replace the Navion, don't you?
OTOH, Le Jamais Contente was nearly as quick as the Navion.
It certainly was the new Tesla Roadster of it's day!

Absolutely right about Le Jamias Contente. For those who might not know, it was the fastest car in the world for a while (beating a custom-built ICE car), the first to break 60 MPH (a speed that was considered surely fatal to anyone on board) and yes, it was definitely electric. No, the Navion is way quicker; 150 knots in cruise, but alas, it burns 15 gallons of 100LL an hour to do that.
For those who have asked, my reasons for canceling my Model 3 reservation have nothing at all to do with buying an ICE car (or shopping at COSTCO). I have no interest in or need for either one of those, and I don't foresee that changing.
My reservation (April 1st, 7:30 AM, online) was, first and foremost, for a car to replace a hybrid sedan that was getting a bit long in the tooth. My secondary motivation was to support Tesla's mission, which I considered very important and still do. I think there are some here who signed up for the mission first and the car second, and that's perfectly OK. Just not my approach.
When the first estimates for delivery began to filter out (and I mentally doubled them, knowing how EM works), I realized that my long-in-the-tooth hybrid would need some help, so I replaced the traction battery, front struts, inverter circulation pump, and sat back and watched.
Design compromises began to show up in Model 3; compromises I did not like. The One Screen to Rule them All and the phone as key come to mind. But if my support for the car began to wane, my support for the mission (electrifying transport) remained. So I decided to wait until I actually could sit in a Model 3, examine it closely, drive it, and then decide what to do.
That opportunity came last week, and I was pleasantly surprised. The car looks very good in person, if a bit rough around the edges (the interior, mainly). The One Screen to Rule them All was functional if not entirely safe (too much eyes down and touch screen fiddling). The phone as key was still dumb and a big step backwards in functionality (it should have been a simple, slick key fob as standard with the phone app available). But I carry my smartphone when I head out in my Triumph (as insurance against Lord Lucas), so maybe I could get along with it in the end. Not happy, but willing.
The Last Straw came with Tesla's message that my mid-2018 delivery was now early 2019. Once again, I ran that through my Elon Decoder and the results suggested this: by the time actual delivery might roll around, the $7500 gift from the Feds will be gone and I will have other options from other manufacturers that don't contain the design compromises I dislike. And if I don't have those options, the wait for a (more refined Model 3) will not be much longer than simply hanging onto my 2016 reservation.
So, with not one whiff of FOMO, I canceled.
Now my support for the mission is my primary reason for dropping by here. That isn't going to change.
Thanks, everyone!
Robin

 

[206er]

Opinions may differ. I will offer these:
1. Above all, trip planning is always a reality for BEV. One looks for charging at destinations for meals, overnights and other long stops. ICE drivers don't do that.
2. In daily driving the instant torque and responsiveness of BEV's force a better awareness of driving habits in order to reduce energy use.
3. Both of those factors make a continuous monitoring of remaining range to be a reality. Not so for ICE.

These three are applicable to any BEV. Then there are the Tesla-specifc ones mostly related to OTA updates, computer interfaces and lack of physical switches, especially Model 3.

My comment was not intended to describe those as overwhelming issues. Still, I know quite a few people who will not drive a Tesla because they're Luddities at heart and don't really want to cope with a Smartphone interface as well as those unconventional controls.

These issues are serious impediments to global and ubiquitous BEV adoption. It will happen, but a generation or two of old vehicle buyers probably need to die off before the new auto world becomes the normal auto world.

What percentage of the world are early adopters?

Interestingly enough, my wife has run out of gas on the freeway numerous times (I still can't understand how she let this happen), so I was pretty concerned about her running out of charge while driving with our kids in the 3, especially since we were going for the SR.

 

[fluxemag]

Remember the S 40kWh? They’ve done that type of thing before. They cited “lack of interest” then if I recall correctly.

Hey, I had one of those! I remember that it was far from certain they would even make it (and technically they didn't). Much more skin in the game on that car, with a $5k reservation and a company on the verge of BK.

 

[03DSG]

Absolutely right about Le Jamias Contente. For those who might not know, it was the fastest car in the world for a while (beating a custom-built ICE car), the first to break 60 MPH (a speed that was considered surely fatal to anyone on board) and yes, it was definitely electric. No, the Navion is way quicker; 150 knots in cruise, but alas, it burns 15 gallons of 100LL an hour to do that.
For those who have asked, my reasons for canceling my Model 3 reservation have nothing at all to do with buying an ICE car (or shopping at COSTCO). I have no interest in or need for either one of those, and I don't foresee that changing.
My reservation (April 1st, 7:30 AM, online) was, first and foremost, for a car to replace a hybrid sedan that was getting a bit long in the tooth. My secondary motivation was to support Tesla's mission, which I considered very important and still do. I think there are some here who signed up for the mission first and the car second, and that's perfectly OK. Just not my approach.
When the first estimates for delivery began to filter out (and I mentally doubled them, knowing how EM works), I realized that my long-in-the-tooth hybrid would need some help, so I replaced the traction battery, front struts, inverter circulation pump, and sat back and watched.
Design compromises began to show up in Model 3; compromises I did not like. The One Screen to Rule them All and the phone as key come to mind. But if my support for the car began to wane, my support for the mission (electrifying transport) remained. So I decided to wait until I actually could sit in a Model 3, examine it closely, drive it, and then decide what to do.
That opportunity came last week, and I was pleasantly surprised. The car looks very good in person, if a bit rough around the edges (the interior, mainly). The One Screen to Rule them All was functional if not entirely safe (too much eyes down and touch screen fiddling). The phone as key was still dumb and a big step backwards in functionality (it should have been a simple, slick key fob as standard with the phone app available). But I carry my smartphone when I head out in my Triumph (as insurance against Lord Lucas), so maybe I could get along with it in the end. Not happy, but willing.
The Last Straw came with Tesla's message that my mid-2018 delivery was now early 2019. Once again, I ran that through my Elon Decoder and the results suggested this: by the time actual delivery might roll around, the $7500 gift from the Feds will be gone and I will have other options from other manufacturers that don't contain the design compromises I dislike. And if I don't have those options, the wait for a (more refined Model 3) will not be much longer than simply hanging onto my 2016 reservation.
So, with not one whiff of FOMO, I canceled.
Now my support for the mission is my primary reason for dropping by here. That isn't going to change.
Thanks, everyone!
Robin

Cool reasoning. In my younger years I was well acquainted with ‘Lucas’ Prince of Darkness. Never took much more than a grey cloud on the horizon.........

 

[X Yes?]

Unless someone has already found an alternative vehicle what would be the point of cancelling unless they desperately need the 1000 bucks.

Could be many that need $1000 after margin calls this week on their TSLA holdings.

 

[jbcarioca]

Cool reasoning. In my younger years I was well acquainted with ‘Lucas’ Prince of Darkness. Never took much more than a grey cloud on the horizon.........

You must've had better Lucas than did I. Even a slight rise in humidity above, say, 15% was enough. idiocy reigns with me: Rover 2000TC, Lotus Cortina, Morgan +8 (that one the Earl's Court display model) and so on. Some people simply do not learn. Come tot think of it, compared with my NSU RO80 all of those were paragons of reliability.

 

[maxell2hd]

The IMF took a stab at it: IMF Survey : Counting the Cost of Energy Subsidies
Energy subsidies are projected at US$5.3 trillion in 2015, or 6.5 percent of global GDP, according to a recent IMF study. Most of this arises from countries setting energy taxes below levels that fully reflect the environmental damage associated with energy consumption.

Edit: that's not just oil, though.

If you look at the specifics of the oil "subsidies" that they count, of their estimated $1.497T in 2015:

-$359B was from traffic congestion
-$271B was from traffic accidents
-$24B was from road damage

In reality, these are not oil subsidies, these are the costs of large groups of people having access to fast, motorized transportation. Having electric vehicles doesn't change any of these costs and the fact that the authors had to include these things makes me question the accuracy of their other numbers.

 

[SMAlset]

Seems like a lot of off thread topic discussion.

I am interested in viewpoints of those who have decided for one reason or another to cancel. Understandable if your current vehicle lease is up or your in an accident or car not worth fixing and need something sooner.

 

[X Yes?]

Now if GM made an electric that had the lines of the Cadillac ATS and had the same range/efficiency of the Bolt I think Tesla would have a true competitor.

It's coming, along with 19 other models by end of 2019. Maybe sooner, GM tends to over deliver, as of late.

 

[heysteveh]

So Tesla is delaying SR production and seems to be making it less of a priority. This affects many (like the OP) by possibly denying them the opportunity to claim the full $7,500 tax incentive and thereby putting the car out of reach financially for some.

But hold on to your hats... now come new predictions that Tesla may not hit 200,000 U.S. deliveries until 3rd quarter this year:

Tesla's progress to 200k US deliveries (& start of Federal Tax Credit Phaseout) ***OP UPDATED 2/9/18

This would mean that many SR buyers may still get the $7,500 tax incentive after all! So what is the take-away from all this? If you're on the fence about cancelling your reservation due to the potential loss of tax incentives remember this: "It ain't over till the fat lady sings".

 

[KJD]

Absolutely right about Le Jamias Contente. For those who might not know, it was the fastest car in the world for a while (beating a custom-built ICE car), the first to break 60 MPH (a speed that was considered surely fatal to anyone on board) and yes, it was definitely electric. No, the Navion is way quicker; 150 knots in cruise, but alas, it burns 15 gallons of 100LL an hour to do that.
For those who have asked, my reasons for canceling my Model 3 reservation have nothing at all to do with buying an ICE car (or shopping at COSTCO). I have no interest in or need for either one of those, and I don't foresee that changing.
My reservation (April 1st, 7:30 AM, online) was, first and foremost, for a car to replace a hybrid sedan that was getting a bit long in the tooth. My secondary motivation was to support Tesla's mission, which I considered very important and still do. I think there are some here who signed up for the mission first and the car second, and that's perfectly OK. Just not my approach.
When the first estimates for delivery began to filter out (and I mentally doubled them, knowing how EM works), I realized that my long-in-the-tooth hybrid would need some help, so I replaced the traction battery, front struts, inverter circulation pump, and sat back and watched.
Design compromises began to show up in Model 3; compromises I did not like. The One Screen to Rule them All and the phone as key come to mind. But if my support for the car began to wane, my support for the mission (electrifying transport) remained. So I decided to wait until I actually could sit in a Model 3, examine it closely, drive it, and then decide what to do.
That opportunity came last week, and I was pleasantly surprised. The car looks very good in person, if a bit rough around the edges (the interior, mainly). The One Screen to Rule them All was functional if not entirely safe (too much eyes down and touch screen fiddling). The phone as key was still dumb and a big step backwards in functionality (it should have been a simple, slick key fob as standard with the phone app available). But I carry my smartphone when I head out in my Triumph (as insurance against Lord Lucas), so maybe I could get along with it in the end. Not happy, but willing.
The Last Straw came with Tesla's message that my mid-2018 delivery was now early 2019. Once again, I ran that through my Elon Decoder and the results suggested this: by the time actual delivery might roll around, the $7500 gift from the Feds will be gone and I will have other options from other manufacturers that don't contain the design compromises I dislike. And if I don't have those options, the wait for a (more refined Model 3) will not be much longer than simply hanging onto my 2016 reservation.
So, with not one whiff of FOMO, I canceled.
Now my support for the mission is my primary reason for dropping by here. That isn't going to change.
Thanks, everyone!
Robin

You could always buy something like this instead. It has 2 screens and 2 key FOBs.
Used Inventory | Tesla

 

[N5329K]

You could always buy something like this instead. It has 2 screens and 2 key FOBs.
Used Inventory | Tesla

Good thought, but we "tried on" a Model S some years ago and for us, it was too big on the outside (couldn't comfortably fit in the garage with the other vehicles), and too small on the inside (back seat headroom especially). And more money than we wanted to spend on something that couldn't fly.
Robin

 

[Dr. J]

If you look at the specifics of the oil "subsidies" that they count, of their estimated $1.497T in 2015:

-$359B was from traffic congestion
-$271B was from traffic accidents
-$24B was from road damage

In reality, these are not oil subsidies, these are the costs of large groups of people having access to fast, motorized transportation. Having electric vehicles doesn't change any of these costs and the fact that the authors had to include these things makes me question the accuracy of their other numbers.

I understand your confusion, but I think what the authors are talking about in this instance are "energy" subsidies, not "oil" subsidies. For example, on page 9, Box 1, Design of Efficient Taxes to Address Energy Externalities, they write:

"To address traffic congestion, the instrument should be a charge per kilometer driven on busy roads, progressively rising and falling during the course of the rush hour to flatten the distribution of trip departure times and promote other behavioral responses for shifting drivers away from peak congestion periods."

While they do speak in the context of "fuel use," clearly such a scheme could account for any type of propulsion system, since the concept is fuel-neutral. Right?

The point is not that oil products cause traffic congestion. The point is that people's driving habits have a cost (to society) that is not internalized to the costs of traveling. The proposed remedy would internalize those costs through congestion charges.

Your quick flight from "these numbers don't make sense" to "none of what these guys say can be trusted!" makes me think this message will not be persuasive.

Edit; Apologies to those looking for reasons why people are cancelling their Model 3 reservations, but it looks like I've gotten myself into something that will be difficult to get out of!

 

[AlanSqB]

Seems like a lot of off thread topic discussion.

I am interested in viewpoints of those who have decided for one reason or another to cancel. Understandable if your current vehicle lease is up or your in an accident or car not worth fixing and need something sooner.

Ugh, you asked...hopefully I don't get too beat up over this...

I think personally I should have purchased a Model S over 2 years ago. That was a mistake on my part. I kept waiting for the "next better thing" and then got caught up in the Model 3 hype. There are so many great things about the Model 3 (roof, smaller, great view of the road) but I'm still not thrilled with the center display or the firmer ride. After 3.5 years in my LEAF, I was ready for a luxury ride. I realize the 3 is a terrific car, but I decided that I was making significant compromises to my wish list and spending quite a non-trivial amount of money to do it.

My lease is also up and I needed a car so I bought an "other car" that hit 80% of my wish list and cost waaaay less than the Model 3 would have. I also financed it at 0.9% (free money) so I didn't have to make any decisions about how to pay like I was facing with the 3 (finance at a somewhat high rate, cash in some investments and purchase outright?). It's no Tesla, but I'm pretty happy with it and I'll get my full $12,500 in tax incentives for this year (CO and fed). No glass roof, but it does have mechanical door handles for the back doors and Apple CarPlay! I drive like a granny, so the acceleration/handling is not a big deal, but again this car does ok. It also has TACC and Lane Keeping included, which has been very nice. EAP and eventually FSD are my main motivations for wanting a Tesla.

My hope/plan is that I'll drive this "other car" for 2 years, during which time we will either see the refresh of the Model S with the types of improvements made to the 3, or a Model 3 with air/comfort suspension and some additional bells and whistles. Perhaps there will be some additional convergence between the two. It will also give some time for quality/bug issues to be worked out and for Tesla to bake in some good in-production improvements. After that, if things still look favorable, I'll give this "other car" to my daughter and finally join the club.

As I explained in an earlier post, I recognize now that my "risk tolerance" and "early adopter" tolerance just wasn't as high as I had imagined. I kept thinking about what a huge pain it is to travel all the way to our single Service Center here in Colorado. I hate driving to south Denver. I don't feel slighted because of the delays. Disappointed, yes, but I've been around watching these forums since the Model X days so I know what I was in for. My cancellation decision was made last Saturday, before all the news this week (delays, Jon's departure, yet another FSD tweet). I'm not going to jump on the "Elon is a snake oil salesman" bandwagon. I will jump on the "Elon needs a Tim" bandwagon.

Finally, as mentioned in an earlier message, I'm fully prepared to be hit with a wave of regret for this decision, however I don't feel like waiting another 2 years will kill me.

 

[ℬête Noire]

My lease is also up and I needed a car....

Yeah, life happens. *shrug*

P.S. Had you considered the Model S, again, this time around? New or used? Since you look back now and think "should have pulled the trigger then"?