Cancelling my reservation

[JRP3]

A few people with unrealistic expectations are upset, unsurprisingly. I'm a non Tesla owner who knew from the beginning that the $35K base model would not be the first available and would in fact likely be the last available because Tesla has always pushed out higher end models first. This is crucial to them continuing to exist as a viable business. Anyone expecting something different simply didn't do some very basic homework.

 

[Kenriko]

I'm a non Tesla owner who knew from the beginning that the $35K base model would not be the first available and would in fact likely be the last available because Tesla has always pushed out higher end models first.

12,353 posts and you don't even own one! that's true grit. Hope you get one soon.

 

[bonaire]

A few people with unrealistic expectations are upset, unsurprisingly. I'm a non Tesla owner who knew from the beginning that the $35K base model would not be the first available and would in fact likely be the last available because Tesla has always pushed out higher end models first. This is crucial to them continuing to exist as a viable business. Anyone expecting something different simply didn't do some very basic homework.

Homework is one thing. However, expectations laid out on 3/31/16 were "first in line, first in car" - except that only one variant would be made for the first <n> months. Elon laid out one expectation for the 3/31/16 line waiters with this statement. And many felt they believed him. This story is May 4, 2016. Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017

With this statement here:
Incredibly, Musk said that they're targeting 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s made in the second half of 2017, which would represent an extraordinary boost over the company's current production capability; right now, it just wants to be able to make 2,000 cars per week by the end of the second quarter. Musk said on the call that if you want a Model 3 in 2018 — shortly after its targeted late 2017 market launch — you should place a deposit soon.

Isn't this a request to get people to "hurry up and give us a deposit" - that deposit level was used to get a large amount of support and money from Wall Street soon after to buy Solar City. The customer Deposits allowed the company to look "stronger" in nature than perhaps they were capable of at the time (and even now). The reservation count certainly was used to facilitate some supportive financing for the Solar City bail-out and we see that 2017 was a problematic year. It was a no-brainer bail-out due to the installs falling into 2017 due to the "relief" that the tax credit got extended 5 more years..
SolarCity's solar installations crash nearly 40%
U.S. solar installations to fall more than expected in 2017
https://nypost.com/2017/12/15/blame-elon-musk-for-drop-in-solar-installations/

I'm not bashing - I'm actually just acting as an anthropologist of the past two years and many actually saw it coming but the ideals associated with many who trusted what some people say were stronger than the belief that they may not be diligent in their guidance aspirations.

 

[bonnie]

Homework is one thing. However, expectations laid out on 3/31/16 were "first in line, first in car" - except that only one variant would be made for the first <n> months.

Tesla has always been clear that employees were first in line, then owners of Model S, X, Roadsters. I don't remember ever hearing 'first in line, first in car'. Do you have a source for that?

 

[MikeBur]

A few people with unrealistic expectations are upset, unsurprisingly. I'm a non Tesla owner who knew from the beginning that the $35K base model would not be the first available and would in fact likely be the last available because Tesla has always pushed out higher end models first. This is crucial to them continuing to exist as a viable business. Anyone expecting something different simply didn't do some very basic homework.

I would *never* have thought you didn’t own one from your engagement here. Wow.

Your point is key: the implicit knowledge the enthusiasts who have tracked tracked for a long time knew to be the reality was not the same as those new to Tesla.
This difference of perspectives due to experience is going to be painful for Tesla as they reach more of the general population and requires more general education, or potentially a wonderful opportunity for some to write an “owning a Tesla for Dummies”-esque book?

 

[JRP3]

I don't remember ever hearing 'first in line, first in car'. Do you have a source for that?

Nor do I, and of course never expected such.

 

[JRP3]

Your point is key: the implicit knowledge the enthusiasts who have tracked tracked for a long time knew to be the reality was not the same as those new to Tesla.

I think anyone interested enough in Tesla to give them a $1,000 deposit on a vehicle they've never seen in person would be aware of the endless media coverage of Tesla never meeting their production goals. Yes I know quite a bit more about Tesla than most people but I also do some basic research before purchasing most products from most companies.

 

[JRP3]

12,353 posts and you don't even own one! that's true grit. Hope you get one soon.

Thanks, I've been waiting for a Tesla longer than most, which is probably why I find some of the frustration here to be... amusing.

 

[ohmman]

I think anyone interested enough in Tesla to give them a $1,000 deposit on a vehicle they've never seen in person would be aware of the endless media coverage of Tesla never meeting their production goals. Yes I know quite a bit more about Tesla than most people but I also do some basic research before purchasing most products from most companies.

When we are immersed in this forum, it’s easy to think a lot of stuff is common knowledge. I have often made this mistake in the past. But as someone significantly backing off from participation here, I can assure you that I’ve quickly become out of the loop on many things. People have different priorities, and this might not be high on the list for their time.

That said, those individuals should be careful about flinging blame onto others. It’s not solely their fault, but it certainly isn’t solely Tesla’s either.

 

[206er]

I think anyone interested enough in Tesla to give them a $1,000 deposit on a vehicle they've never seen in person would be aware of the endless media coverage of Tesla never meeting their production goals. Yes I know quite a bit more about Tesla than most people but I also do some basic research before purchasing most products from most companies.

For me, a $1k refundable deposit was a super low risk step toward joining the sexy ev family of Tesla. Prior to buying an iphone, Civic, or ILX, I didn't spend much time researching Apple, Honda, or Acura. I just knew I liked what I saw and wanted the product. With the Model 3, I assumed it was gong to be good based on all of Tesla's models to date and was expecting a smaller version of the S. Fortunately, I found that the first reveal left me super impressed with my choice to line up outside of a store earlier that morning to trade Elon $1k for a place in line for a $35k Tesla. I wasn't aware of how tough the initial S and X roll outs were, nor did I anticipate needing to wait almost 3 years to get the car and almost certainly missing out on the full federal tax credit. Heck, I didn't even know this website existed prior to Feb 2017.

I'll tell you this much - I will NOT be lining up to reserve a Y, lol.

 

[JRP3]

When we are immersed in this forum, it’s easy to think a lot of stuff is common knowledge.

Sure, but let me rephrase:

I think anyone interested enough in a product to give a company a $1,000 deposit on a $35K+ product no one has ever seen or used in person would do some basic research on both the product and company. I try to be an informed consumer in general and I get the feeling I've done more research on a $20 purchase than some people did before reserving a Model 3.

 

[MikeBur]

Nor do I, and of course never expected such.

Both you and @bonnie I would put at the top of the list in “ability to filter Tesla statements against experience” and this filters our perspective and interpretation.
I too align with Bonnie’s statement and don’t remember anyone saying “first in line, first in car”, though I can completely appreciate that others heard this differently due to their own perspective and got swept up in the excitement of a great car for 35k before rebates without the knowledge to temper expectations.

It is disappointing and sucks to see additional models inserted and the change of delivery dates. I don’t *know* these are directly tied, though I do infer they are related. I believe it is a combination of slower ramp and new, higher value, models.
I have *hope* that Tesla will look very hard at how to take full advantage of the federal rebate rules, eg if Tesla concentrated on Canada for Model 3s until production ramp was at 10k per week reliability then build backlog in US at this run rate for final quarter.

Ensuring accuracy of position is important; being empathetic to the realities of current changes is just as important - this is not pointed at either of you, though a number of members are not as emotionally astute.

 

[MikeBur]

Sure, but let me rephrase:

I think anyone interested enough in a product to give a company a $1,000 deposit on a $35K+ product no one has ever seen or used in person would do some basic research on both the product and company. I try to be an informed consumer in general and I get the feeling I've done more research on a $20 purchase than some people did before reserving a Model 3.

I disagree. I don’t believe it is correct to apply your expectation for burden of research on general consumers, doubly so for a car. Yours is lower than many on enthusiast sites btw
I believe the large majority of general consumers for Model 3 were/are likely unaware of this site or hobbyist/enthusiast car forums in general. Most believe a manufacturer to know best in terms of expected delivery timeframe and capabilities and will implicitly trust them to deliver to these. I don’t believe Tesla has modified its information dissemination to address the mass market yet. I am ever the optimist and hope they do.

 

[ohmman]

Sure, but let me rephrase:

I think anyone interested enough in a product to give a company a $1,000 deposit on a $35K+ product no one has ever seen or used in person would do some basic research on both the product and company. I try to be an informed consumer in general and I get the feeling I've done more research on a $20 purchase than some people did before reserving a Model 3.

Right. That’s your personality (and mine). My point is that it’s not everyone’s.

 

[jelloslug]

Homework is one thing. However, expectations laid out on 3/31/16 were "first in line, first in car" - except that only one variant would be made for the first <n> months.

That was never true.

 

[MikeBur]

I think anyone interested enough in Tesla to give them a $1,000 deposit on a vehicle they've never seen in person would be aware of the endless media coverage of Tesla never meeting their production goals. Yes I know quite a bit more about Tesla than most people but I also do some basic research before purchasing most products from most companies.

I’ve answered more deeply on why I don’t agree with this, though another pertinent point is that many got swept up with the fervor of the day, the popular press, etc.
The deposit of 1k for those who wanted to take advantage of the fed tax credit, was likely less than 1% of their annual income on a purchase they would likely have for many years, so more like 1/5% of annual income and justifiable easily (less than a latte a day? ). They would have previous experience of the fed tax paid to date.

 

[T34ME]

Homework is one thing. However, expectations laid out on 3/31/16 were "first in line, first in car" - except that only one variant would be made for the first <n> months. Elon laid out one expectation for the 3/31/16 line waiters with this statement. And many felt they believed him.

No, I never heard Elon say that. You may have presumed that, and you chose to believe your expectations, but he never said that. In actuality though, this is what Tesla is doing, first in line, first in car within a subset of employees, owners, non-owners and a further subset of US State location, North America, and rest of world, within yet another subset of LHD, RHD. (There are some exceptions where non-owner line jumpers cheated the system by paying an owner a premium for their reservation).

Although I would like to have my car yesterday, I am perfectly happy to wait a bit longer so that the beta testers can deal with the bugs and glitches and I won't have to deal with them or at least fewer of them. Relax, it's a great car and will be worth the wait.

 

[pdxrob]

I think saying "this is good for Tesla since they're maximizing profits" is considering Tesla in a vacuum.

First off, it ignores opportunity cost. I'm willing to bet that consumer "stickiness" is largely correlated with preferred configuration cost e.g. customers who wanted the base model are more likely to leave if they get impatient or don't get to fully utilize the tax credit. And yes, there are plenty of frugal wealthy people who can fully utilize the tax credit but want a cheap model. As an analogy, think of this in terms of politics: The parties don't have to worry about the die-hards, they'll always show up and vote. They have to worry about the margins and unenthusiastic voters.

Second, while you can make good arguments that the Bolt/Leaf/etc all are worse than the equivalent base Model 3, are they worse when you're discounted (up to) $7500 from the Model 3? Personally I think that Tesla has entry model competition; I would argue that it does not (currently) have well-configured Model 3 competition (they will with the Mission E and Polestar 1 in future years).

I know many of you will retort that there's unlimited demand for $35k Model 3, but I think that's quite a claim to back up in the market as it's evolving, especially from my biased perspective as a happy Volt owner.

 

[JRP3]

Right. That’s your personality (and mine). My point is that it’s not everyone’s.

I’ve answered more deeply on why I don’t agree with this, though another pertinent point is that many got swept up with the fervor of the day, the popular press, etc.

Fair points.

 

[N5329K]

Quite a few people expected "something special" for line waiters, too.
I do like my rendering, though.
Robin