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Catalysts, Due Diligence, and Market Timing

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Jackl1956, Dec 14, 2013.

  1. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    My wife thinks I need to seek counseling for my obsession with "all things Tesla". Without question she is the one with the smarts in the family. That said, I spend way too much time on the Internet investigating Tesla Motors.

    Confessions aside, I have missed a couple of opportunities lately that I find disconcerting.

    1. Germany's Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA), or Federal Motor Transport Authority, already has completed an investigation into the two US fires and the one in Mexico, found no manufacturer-related defects and will not take further measures.

    I did not even know Germany was investigating the fires.

    2. Franz von Holzhausen is interviewed by Auto Bild, a German magazine and mentions that the Model E might be revealed at the Detroit Auto Show in January of 2015.

    Days later the rest of the world (and myself) realize the significance and the market reacts.

    My point is that I have missed a number of very important catalysts. Coulda, shoulda, woulda, been very profitable. I like the idea of a thread dedicated to potential catalysts (news items) that may drive market prices.
     
  2. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Member

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    If you follow the short-term movements thread, things of this nature are generally discussed as they occur.
     
  3. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    The letter from KBR to Tesla Motors was dated 11-27-2013. The first entry in the short-term movements thread was 12-2-2013, the day that Tesla made the news announcement. December 2nd tsla closed at 124.17. December 3rd tsla closed at 144.70.

    My point is that in some cases we are behind the power curve.
     
  4. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Member

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    That's true. I'm not sure that a diff thread would lead to quicker notice by the forum, though.
     
  5. PeterJA

    PeterJA Member

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    Motley Fool article about the Holzhausen interview, saying the Gen3/Model E is on track.
    Tesla's Affordable Car to Be Unveiled in 2015? (TSLA)


    Will that news bump the stock on Monday, or was it already priced into Friday's drop that will continue on Monday? I kept some cash for the latter possibility.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And another Fool article about Tesla's deal to supply batteries to Solar City.
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/14/this-technology-is-ruining-the-holidays-for-utilit.aspx
     
  6. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    #6 Chickenlittle, Dec 14, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2013
    Should put our spouse together to start a support group for spouses of tesla owners.

    mine accuse me of stalking elon on line for more tha a year
     
  7. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    And mine asserts that I have a man-crush on Elon. Feh.
     
  8. PeterJA

    PeterJA Member

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    #8 PeterJA, Dec 14, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2013
    I do have a man-crush on Elon, for almost the first time in my life. Politicians since Nixon prevented my admiration for most government leaders, and I know too much about Hollywood to be gobsmacked by movie stars. I am gobsmacked by Elon.
     
  9. Cameron

    Cameron Member

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    I am right there with ya Jackl1956. The only thing I hate more then loosing money when the stock goes down is missing out when it goes up. I had the smallest long position I've ever had and puts when the German report came out, and boy was I frustrated. As religiously as I follow this company, I feel obligated to make money on every positive catalyst. I know it's almost impossible to predict when the positive news will come, and the best way to benefit from it is to just buy and hold, but with our extensive knowledge of the company we still might get an edge over the rest of the market which could be huge. We know the NHTSA report is coming, so maybe someone with experience with them could fill us in on how long their investigations usually take, etc. I know another member brought up how Tesla has a booth at the Detroit auto show in January and that would make a great opportunity for them to reveal the production Model X. Although that may just be speculation, it's still something I never thought of and will keep in mind come January. So I am all for a "positive catalyst speculation" thread. A lot of it may just end up being nonsense but it still wouldn't hurt.
     
  10. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    I don't think anyone besides tesla can get these kind of news in advance. Otherwise it is called insider trading and we'd all be richer than Elon.

    So in the absence of these news, it is up to the investor's own judgement. I believe at the time you mentioned, there were people on both camps calling for the price to either rise or fall. Most of us made a bet by either taking a new position or remain in what we already have at the turning point.

    Sorry, I have nothing constructive to say but bitter pills.
     
  11. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    On March 3. 2014. Tesla might get the award as European Car of the Year.
    The competition is: BMW i3, Citroen C4 Picasso, Mazda 3, Mercedes-Benz S, Peugeot 308 and Skoda Octavia.

    I think its gonna be the Tesla or the Mercedes. If Tesla wins, that would be massive PR in Europe.
     
  12. Plug Me In

    Plug Me In Member

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    Do you guys (and gals) really profit appreciably from these (to my mind anyway) somewhat random reactions to news bits? I realize that using options, you're able to leverage more profit from small movements, but I would think that a 1-2% price change, after factoring brokerage fees, short term capital gain taxes, would only be worthwhile in the volumes of many thousands of shares. The recent silliness with the fires, of course, excepted, it would drive me crazy to try to time these fairly routine announcements to any type of major change in position. Of course, this is from my perspective as a somewhat conservative, long term investor. FYI - long on TSLA since $35.
     
  13. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    > European Car of the Year.

    Whose cheesy award is this, the EU??
    --
     
  14. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    55 European car journalists from 22 countries vote after testing all 30+ new models which qualified this year. They pretty much cover all of the major European car magazines. Getting this award would be awsome for PR over here.
    http://www.caroftheyear.org/auto/our-spirit
     
  15. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    What do you mean cheesy? And don't you know what Europe is?
     
  16. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    #16 vgrinshpun, Dec 17, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2013
  17. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Great post. Thanks for posting this link.
     
  18. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    wow, nicely done vgrinshpun!
     
  19. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Gotta agree with that... Let's make sure there is no doubt, that award would not only be huge PR in Europe, would also be hugely significant in US and Asia alike (And well deserved by Tesla I might add). The US market for European made cars, especially in Tesla's target market is huge (also richly deserved).

    In defense of wycolo comment though, the source of the awards and which are most respected is not well known here in the US. Maybe some of our European posters can help shed some educational light on that. What's the 'Academy Award' of auto awards in Europe and who forms the judgements for those awards?
     
  20. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    I would say this is "the" car award in Europe. There are many others by individual magazines and such, but this is the only one that really matters.

    First of all it has a 50 year history - in fact it will turn 50 in 2014, so it may be a good occasion to make a statement with a revolutionary winner ;)
    Second it representes almost all EU countries with their most respected (mainly) car magazines and their jurnos voting.
     

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