Chevy Bolt team must be really pulling their hair out after a today's tweets from Elon!

[nativewolf]

I dunno...maybe you are right.

BUT, I think as a strategic and military type plan, Elon and Tesla are trying to do many things at once :

1. Gobble up/ suction/ vacuum up max potential EV demand (both current and latent ) in the $35-55K price band, so that Apple and/or Google will be forced to abandon any serious plans to enter this EV space with their own mass manufactured vehicle. So, I think Elon will keep aggressive pricing to fend off new entrants.

2. Trying to bring in as much Space X type technology into Tesla to keep the rate of technological innovation at break neck speed so that traditional ICE manufacturers will be always be trying to catch up and unfortunately remain years behind Tesla.

3. Simultaneously launching such a young company globally with such advanced mass market product.

4. Wow the iPhone type mindset customer into a new era; where we have to rethink what our cars can do, versus what we can do with our cars.

I am reminded of Wayne Gretzsky's famous quote : I am don't skate to where the puck is, but to where the puck is going to be ".

I believe Elon will seriously ( and is seriously going to ) try to move his puck at great speed on many angles on his 4 dimensional chess board for the next decade......and the traditional ICE manufacturers will really be left far behind with aging plants, aging technology, and aging talent .....and they just will be left in such a confused competitive state.

For better or worse I think you are missing the key ones, which might or might not make your argument stronger or weaker depending upon viewpoint.

Ecosystem- create an ecosystem of charging, autonomous driving, and other systems that are tightly integrated.
Energy- he's creating an energy ecosystem as the battery is the key to the whole thing. power generation/supply is really going to be a key determinant of success. Solar capture/energy storage/to transport.

 

[Zythryn]

...
1. Gobble up/ suction/ vacuum up max potential EV demand (both current and latent ) in the $35-55K price band, so that Apple and/or Google will be forced to abandon any serious plans to enter this EV space with their own mass manufactured vehicle. So, I think Elon will keep aggressive pricing to fend off new entrants.
...

I suspect this is completely off base.
Elon WANTS Apple, Google, and any other manufacturer to get into the EV business.
He doesn't want them to abandon plans to enter the EV space, he wants them to help bring about the transition of transportation.

 

[Rilla]

It still blows my mind the way Pam Fletcher talks about the Bolt like Chevy will be the class leader. Really forced marketing speak without a compelling vehicle to back it up. I even recall her in one interview claiming that it was Chevy that discovered the skateboard battery pack configuration to reduce center of gravity.

 

[roblab]

It still blows my mind the way Pam Fletcher talks about the Bolt like Chevy will be the class leader. Really forced marketing speak without a compelling vehicle to back it up. I even recall her in one interview claiming that it was Chevy that discovered the skateboard battery pack configuration to reduce center of gravity.

I remember that! What happened? The engineers were told there was no use for it, and nothing happened. The difference is, that all the Tesla designers are engineers, and vice versa (not Versa vice). You gotta use it. I think all Chevy's patents expired. They didn't use a skateboard for the EV1, did they?

 

[eye.surgeon]

The Bolt is a very nice product...don't know why all the Bolt hate around here. And it's going to be available long before the M3 so I don't see why GM would have to price-compete with a non-existent competitor. The Bolt is a sign of the success of the mission of Tesla.

 

[Quant]

The Bolt is a very nice product...don't know why all the Bolt hate around here. And it's going to be available long before the M3 so I don't see why GM would have to price-compete with a non-existent competitor. The Bolt is a sign of the success of the mission of Tesla.

I'm not sure it's Bolt hate ! I think it's more the ethos of Steve Jobs. People here are a big Jobsian....don't care for shitty looking products that are personal ( you carry on you, or that carry you ! ).

 

[Bimbels]

The Bolt is a very nice product...don't know why all the Bolt hate around here. And it's going to be available long before the M3 so I don't see why GM would have to price-compete with a non-existent competitor. The Bolt is a sign of the success of the mission of Tesla.

I think in general there is much GM hate because of their legal battles against Tesla in many states. States that have banned tesla sales can thank GM for their lobbying. And the perception that their EV program is really just about compliance cars, and not actually furthering EVs. I believe there is a 30K/yr cap on the Bolt, which doesn't help with that....

 

[Quant]

I suspect this is completely off base.
Elon WANTS Apple, Google, and any other manufacturer to get into the EV business.
He doesn't want them to abandon plans to enter the EV space, he wants them to help bring about the transition of transportation.

Well then why not show all the competition everything about the Model 3, put all autonomous software out on the internet free, open access, and share it, and while you are at it share all the software and technology that goes into the battery pack and drive train.

I think anyone who confuses how competitive people like Elon Musk can be ( irrespective of wanting good things for humankind and by inference the environment of our planet) is confusing nature ( competitive nature of all people) with nurture ( wanting to take care of your child or care for your species at large and your home I.E. ecosystem of the earth).
There is a ying and a yang to it, IMO.

 

[Rilla]

The Bolt is a very nice product...don't know why all the Bolt hate around here. And it's going to be available long before the M3 so I don't see why GM would have to price-compete with a non-existent competitor. The Bolt is a sign of the success of the mission of Tesla.

For me personally I don't hate the Bolt just for being a competitor - I think competition is great.

But we expect a lot more from the competition at this point. Nissan's IDS Concept (The Future of Autonomous Electric Driving) is much more compelling to me. While it is still a concept, at least Nissan is trying to make a great car that does more than check the boxes for an EV.

I don't think the Bolt is a bad car - they did some things right. But I do think it will turn out to be far inferior to the Model 3, especially considering they are at the same price point.

 

[Rilla]

Well then why not show all the competition everything about the Model 3, put all autonomous software out on the internet free, open access, and share it, and while you are at it share all the software and technology that goes into the battery pack and drive train.

I think anyone who confuses how competitive people like Elon Musk can be ( irrespective of wanting good things for humankind and by inference the environment of our planet) is confusing nature ( competitive nature of all people) with nurture ( wanting to take care of your child or care for your species at large and your home I.E. ecosystem of the earth).
There is a ying and a yang to it, IMO.

I think making everything open source would work IF all of the automakers truly wanted to work together, but i think Tesla has to take things a bit further on its own first. Giving everything to other automakers would potentially result in a lot of poor execution and develop distrust of EVs/autonomous cars in the marketplace.

 

[techmaven]

Well then why not show all the competition everything about the Model 3, put all autonomous software out on the internet free, open access, and share it, and while you are at it share all the software and technology that goes into the battery pack and drive train.

No, he wants them to build EVs. But Tesla has to survive to accomplish that, so Tesla vehicles have to be competitive. Autonomous driving software does not have anything directly with EVs. The other companies don't need much more help, they just need the willpower.

 

[Quant]

I think making everything open source would work IF all of the automakers truly wanted to work together, but i think Tesla has to take things a bit further on its own first. Giving everything to other automakers would potentially result in a lot of poor execution and develop distrust of EVs/autonomous cars in the marketplace.

Well, perhaps you didnt get the gist of what I was implying....that there are good reasons for Tesla and Elon to be just as competitive as Apple or Google or BMW...etc.

 

[S'toon]

The Bolt is a very nice product...don't know why all the Bolt hate around here. And it's going to be available long before the M3 so I don't see why GM would have to price-compete with a non-existent competitor. The Bolt is a sign of the success of the mission of Tesla.

I don't hate the Bolt. I just wish it were more practical. No included fast charging. GM has no intention whatsoever of building a fast charging network, by their own admission. Heck, the nearest CCS charging station is even further from me than the nearest Supercharger.

 

[Quant]

No, he wants them to build EVs. But Tesla has to survive to accomplish that, so Tesla vehicles have to be competitive. Autonomous driving software does not have anything directly with EVs. The other companies don't need much more help, they just need the willpower.

Of course he does. I agree. But, IMO it requires more than willpower.

IF they go too far, too fast. what will happen to the tens of billions of $ - each of them - has invested in ICE car design, and manufacturing and assembly plants for millions of cars per year, that have not had financial payback ( let alone return or positive net present value for their investors ).

Combined, ICE manufacturers have invested over $300 billion new $ equivalents, in just the last 5 years alone, of their investors money ....and 95 PC plus of their employes are only trained in ICE manufacturing.

So, it's not just will power. The financial ramifications of moving too fast will be hugely, hugely expensive for them as ICE manufacturers. THIS IS SUPER IMPORTANT.

What would you do tomorrow if you are the CFO of GM or MB or BMW and have many tens of billions stuck in this legacy infrastructure and manufacturing and assembly ? And you - At the same time - are legally obligated to service the hundreds of millions of your ICE cars on the road today , globally.

It's not just willpower....but also current financials and recently sunk capital. They are steering huge cruise liners and have to make small but long term changes rather than fast, sharp turns for fear ( legitimately ) of just toppling ...financially.

And, there's also the union agreements, tied to specific plants, in specific cities and countries, with specific hiring commitments in many cases.

 

[Craig9080]

That's just sad to watch now that the 3 has been revealed. It almost reminds me of the Iraqi Information Minister in Baghdad saying something along the lines of "We are pushing them back! They have no chance!" As an M1 rolls past in the background blowing something up.

 

[Rilla]

Of course he does. I agree. But, IMO it requires more than willpower.

IF they go too far, too fast. what will happen to the tens of billions of $ - each of them - has invested in ICE car design, and manufacturing and assembly plants for millions of cars per year, that have not had financial payback ( let alone return or positive net present value for their investors ).

Combined, ICE manufacturers have invested over $300 billion new $ equivalents, in just the last 5 years alone, of their investors money ....and 95 PC plus of their employes are only trained in ICE manufacturing.

So, it's not just will power. The financial ramifications of moving too fast will be hugely, hugely expensive for them as ICE manufacturers. THIS IS SUPER IMPORTANT.

What would you do tomorrow if you are the CFO of GM or MB or BMW and have many tens of billions stuck in this legacy infrastructure and manufacturing and assembly ? And you - At the same time - are legally obligated to service the hundreds of millions of your ICE cars on the road today , globally.

It's not just willpower....but also current financials and recently sunk capital. They are steering huge cruise liners and have to make small but long term changes rather than fast, sharp turns for fear ( legitimately ) of just toppling ...financially.

And, there's also the union agreements, tied to specific plants, in specific cities and countries, with specific hiring commitments in many cases.

Very good points. There is so much R&D, branding, physical capital, and human capital invested already for these brands in EV technology. If they focused 100% of their efforts on doing exactly what Tesla is doing for EVs honestly I think BMW/Audi/Mercedes might be able to steamroll Tesla purely due to the sheer amount of resources they have, but it would be extremely costly for them to do so, and extremely risky.

What they can do is continue to develop their ICEs and driver techologies while devoting more resources to hybrids/EVs over time, in a way that will prevent Tesla from gaining too much market share when EVs inevitably take over.

 

[Rilla]

^ Sorry, meant to say capital invested in ICE technology.

 

[MP3Mike]

At that price you are basically approaching model S pricing.

So what? It isn't approaching the price of a similarly equipped Model S. (Model S goes from $70k-$145k, expect the Model 3 to go from $35k-$90k.)

 

[Bimbels]

Very good points. There is so much R&D, branding, physical capital, and human capital invested already for these brands in EV technology. If they focused 100% of their efforts on doing exactly what Tesla is doing for EVs honestly I think BMW/Audi/Mercedes might be able to steamroll Tesla purely due to the sheer amount of resources they have, but it would be extremely costly for them to do so, and extremely risky.

What they can do is continue to develop their ICEs and driver techologies while devoting more resources to hybrids/EVs over time, in a way that will prevent Tesla from gaining too much market share when EVs inevitably take over.

And Audi/VW, in the most precarious position due to their recent scandal - has been the first one to say anything about stepping up.

 

[tkizzy]

A. My god that Bolt is ugly and tasteless. (And that's ok for some people...tasteless, bland, uninspired people) But at 37,000 before tax credit - compared to the sleek, sexy Model 3 for 35k$ - You're out of your G'Ded mind if you choose that over Model 3. Unless you NEED to have it before model 3... I'm looking to Germany for any eventual serious EV competitors to the 3, not (lol) Chevy. The bolt looks like a $20,000 ICE with a $17,000 premium for it being electric. The 3 looks like a 35,000$ car (or more...it's pretty nice.), that just happens to be an EV.

Also, I don't think P version of Model 3 will have sub 3 second performance. That's Model S territory.

People who paid more for a Model X don't expect it to be faster than Model S because tradeoffs, so why do you think Model 3 vs S would be any different?

If the Model 3 is lighter than the Model S, it has the inherent potential to be faster. No reason to limit that. While the Model S is VERY fast compared to anything, and handles very well for it's size class, it is still a HUGE, HEAVY Full-size luxury Sedan. The Model 3 will be an inherently better track car.

Before, you bought a Model S because it was THE performance EV. Now you have a choice - Do I want bigger/roomier? Do I want nimbler? And you have a continuum of compromises to choose from:
3, S ,X -> fastest, faster, fast / smallest, bigger, biggest.

For comparison - BMW M3 = 4.3 seconds 0-62 (3L,431hp), BMW M5 = 4.4 seconds (4.4L, 560 HP)
(M3 STARTS AT LIKE 80,000 $ LOL, model 3 will be on par for much much less (0-60).