JRP3
Hyperactive Member
We do? I didn't realize Tesla was dropping prices. Examples? Dec. delivery is more than a month wait, and we previously had one month wait times, so that's an increase, not a drop.
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We do? I didn't realize Tesla was dropping prices. Examples? Dec. delivery is more than a month wait, and we previously had one month wait times, so that's an increase, not a drop.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sales keep increasing, deliveries keep increasing, and some people still think there is a demand problem. Do you not realize that they can miss guidance for reasons completely independent of demand?
StapleGun
Member
$1000 off with referral is essentially a price drop, and it's $2000 off for anyone willing to look a little.
chickensevil
Active Member
They had been toying with the idea of how to reward their owners for doing what they do best since before I even bought my car, some almost 2 years ago, now. If anything I would classify this a form of advertising cost to generate sales, which is no worse or better than opening another store. Is every time they open a store in some new location a sign that we should run for the hills because they are losing demand?
It is more a balance between pulling levers to keep upping the sales as they are continuing to support more production.
As for the 1k a week, the company has themselves stated a couple times that peak capacity is not the sustained capacity and that weekly number varies due to many different factors. Unless you are complaining that we haven't gone above 1k yet, in which case, they have been working to up the installed capacity at the factory all year. It started in Q3 of 2014 with the new final assembly and is finishing with the new BIW line that was recently installed (They have also upgraded the motor production, pack assembly, and paint shop, along with securing more space for their suppliers in nearby buildings local to Fremont). You can only go as fast as your slowest part, and the main slow part right now on the overall production is believed to be the new BIW line, with exception of the X itself which was stated to be held up due to Seat and Windshield suppliers. So not sure what you want them to do... they can't just *magic* some cars together.
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh and note that we have already delivered more cars than we delivered last year, every quarter has been at least a slight increase over the last. "Falling demand" would indicate that INCREASING your deliveries would not be happening. So clearly there has been enough demand to sustain and continue to grow the numbers. Q3 2014 had 7,785, Q3 2015 had 11,580 deliveries. If my math is correct that is a 48.7% increase year over year. Didn't they talk of averaging a 50% increase in overall deliveries (of all models) from now until the foreseeable future? I would say 48.7% is pretty close...
Q2 14: 7579
Q2 15: 11507
51.8% increase
Q1 14: 6457
Q1 15: 10030
55.3% increase
Year over Year for Q1 to Q3 total is currently at 51.9%. Why is them doing better than the 50% rate they said they would do a sign that demand is falling?
Q2 14: 7579
Q2 15: 11507
51.8% increase
Q1 14: 6457
Q1 15: 10030
55.3% increase
Year over Year for Q1 to Q3 total is currently at 51.9%. Why is them doing better than the 50% rate they said they would do a sign that demand is falling?
also: interesting that people questioning demand have been ignoring yoy increases of demand and deliveries for years now. As far as I can see, Tesla has been able to increase sales of a single model by about 35-50% yoy for three years in a row, now. Very interesting.
chickensevil, you beat me to it. :biggrin:
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Elon stated before that cars sold with referral is lower cost to tesla than from the brick and mortar stores
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Wait times are increasing in the face of increasing supply. That is an indication demand is increasing.
Referral program is in effect a discount.
In my view Tesla wanted to preempt lower demand in face of pending release of Model X and possible cannibalization of Model S sales.
Referral program is scheduled to end on Halloween.
IF it does as scheduled, that is effectively a price hike. Are bears willing to admit then that the demand curve for Model S then shifted up?
Referral program is in effect a discount.
In my view Tesla wanted to preempt lower demand in face of pending release of Model X and possible cannibalization of Model S sales.
Referral program is scheduled to end on Halloween.
IF it does as scheduled, that is effectively a price hike. Are bears willing to admit then that the demand curve for Model S then shifted up?
chickensevil
Active Member
I seriously don't know what more people want on the demand thing? They even recently said there was a surge of orders on the S after the X reveal. I also know that there was been a surge at least of interest since the autopilot went live. Since I got the desire to upgrade, myself, and have been dealing with my poor sales guy being swamped by myself and other people.
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But TM's guidance was for 50% average Y/Y increases. They have been holding this. The tough one is, of course, Q4, but they have successfully pulled off a 50% increase on all other quarters so far this year so I am inclined to think that they would pull it off this quarter in-spite of Model X numbers.
Regardless of the demand question, I'd love to get some colour on same-store year-on-year growth.
chickensevil
Active Member
Final note, they delivered 9,834 in Q4 of last year. Technically to hit a 50% increase they would only need 14,751. hitting the ~16.5k number and the 50k goal would be above a 50% year over year increase. Falling short of an ambitious goal to increase production due to issues in the factory should not be held negatively against the company because they still are trending at a 50% y/y increase. While the market may not like a miss on the 50k delivery, and I still am anticipating they meet it, it would not be a disappointment to "only" increase by 50% (which the limited increase is still attributed more toward production side issues than demand side issues)
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I could get behind this. Last year I attempted to get some guess as to the color on value of stores vs superchargers vs sales as it related to Europe... and it seemed like it was all over the place. Incentives didn't necessarily pull out an exceptional winners either. It was odd. The best I could tell was that superchargers seemed to have the most impact more than a store did, but it was all with just data that I could manage to put together and nothing concrete from the company as they don't break out by country.
I would imagine that they wouldn't keep adding more stores in CA if there was no net positive benefit to the locations... hiring some 20-30 employees and paying a lease on a prime piece of real estate. But I would not be opposed to getting more data!
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I could get behind this. Last year I attempted to get some guess as to the color on value of stores vs superchargers vs sales as it related to Europe... and it seemed like it was all over the place. Incentives didn't necessarily pull out an exceptional winners either. It was odd. The best I could tell was that superchargers seemed to have the most impact more than a store did, but it was all with just data that I could manage to put together and nothing concrete from the company as they don't break out by country.
I would imagine that they wouldn't keep adding more stores in CA if there was no net positive benefit to the locations... hiring some 20-30 employees and paying a lease on a prime piece of real estate. But I would not be opposed to getting more data!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's also not rational. You seem to be desperately trying to come up with some narrow definition of demand constraint so you can claim to be right. If there is more demand than Tesla can meet there is no demand constraint. If you think demand growth is lower than you personally expected, even though we have no idea what the demand growth actually is, that's your prerogative, but don't expect others to agree, especially with no evidence.
Maoing, do you really think a $30,000 - $50,000 difference won't cause demand for Electric Vehicles and by definition Tesla vehicles to increase? Not to mention the mandate that 20% of new vehicles sold are Electric. Not to mention the fact that Beijing is continuing to reduce the number of license plates issued via the lottery. This will cause the black market price for a license plate to continue to increase and the number of gasoline vehicles sold to decline.
Prices Of Beijings Black Market License Plates Now Double The Cost Of Most Popular New Car
This article is from last year. Couldn't find a recent article that discusses the "black market price" for license plates in. Beijing. I'll be extremely surprised if the number isn't currently well above $50,000 with all the new policies introduced in the last year.
Prices Of Beijings Black Market License Plates Now Double The Cost Of Most Popular New Car
This article is from last year. Couldn't find a recent article that discusses the "black market price" for license plates in. Beijing. I'll be extremely surprised if the number isn't currently well above $50,000 with all the new policies introduced in the last year.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Hold up. It was explained that that little chunk of money is completely offset by Tesla not having to open additional stores/galleries as aggressively. It was also, as mentioned by chickensevil, a way to incentivize/rewarding owners who specifically ASKED if Tesla would/could reward them for all the cars they (the owners) were selling via word of mouth. It's widely known that Tesla car owners are the best sales force in the world, so why not throw them a bone?
So, while on the surface it looks like a price drop - it's not really.
They started the referral program when sales took a dive ahead of the anticipated X reveal.
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Close. It means demand is below plan and production capabilities are at or above plan.
Plan isn't necessarily what a company represents to investors.
I would characterize it differently. EM/TM opened the referral program to prevent a dive in S reservations once the X was revealed. I think it was a good defensive/protective move.
I do not always understand or agree with some of EM/Tm's moves but that one appears to be a smart move. It will be interesting to see if it gets extended.
Krugerrand
Meow
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