JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd think it won't considering the recent legal challenge to it. Unless they found a loophole or something.
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I'd think it won't considering the recent legal challenge to it. Unless they found a loophole or something.
Model S is outrageously expensive outside of US.
In Australia, P85D is approx $190k AUD.
Similarly in other non US markets, price has only been going up due to strong US $. Yet yoy sales have also been going up in non US markets, despite rising prices.
jesselivenomore
Member
Please provide a link to where Tesla guided for 50k or 55k model S deliveries.
If the actual guidance is for total vehicle deliveries, then you can LoL all you want. We know for a fact that Tesla has over 20k model X reservations, and have so far delivered <10. That is what is known as "clearly production and delivery constrained". Because if production was not an issue, total vehicle deliveries would be >75k+ for 2015.
And once the model X reaches the model S's level of penetration in 2-3 years, Tesla will have hundreds of thousands of model 3 reservations on its books. Which is why they will be "clearly production and delivery constrained" for the foreseeable future.
This is of course ignoring any further growth in model S demand in its current markets and new markets in the near future like Mexico and the middle east. But lets not go there, just to keep it nice and simple.
BMW M5 is a bit more than S, $10k approx. Most stuff is far cheaper in US than off shore.
Price being the same when converted to US $ is not much help to buyers outside of US. Model S price in non US markets puts it within reach of much smaller pool of customers as compared to the US market pool. In other words, S is much less affordable off shore than in the US.
Higher S pricing combined with worsening economic conditions outside of US sets my expectation for the S market growth in US to be faster than in the off shore markets
China might be an exception hopefully, due to recent regulatory changes and due to large market size
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
As of 2013 GDP per capita was $67,458 USD for Australia and $53,042 for the US.
That is why GM,Ford, Toyota and everyone else stopped manufacturing in Australia.
Google
According to the World Bank GDP per capita for Australia in 2014 was $61,887. For the US it is $54,692.
List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I don't think Australians can plead poverty.
The US price being the US price is not much help to Americans either.
Buying the best sedan on the planet is expensive no matter where you live.
That is why GM,Ford, Toyota and everyone else stopped manufacturing in Australia.
According to the World Bank GDP per capita for Australia in 2014 was $61,887. For the US it is $54,692.
List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I don't think Australians can plead poverty.
The US price being the US price is not much help to Americans either.
Buying the best sedan on the planet is expensive no matter where you live.
Tell me about that :crying::crying:
GDP is not the best measure of affordability, or perhaps willingness to spend $200k on a car.
Tesla will sell off shore, but at a slower pace than in the US. That might change if US $ reverses its course in relation to other currencies.
On the bright side, Aussies can buy a new Outlander PHEV for about the same price as a 'new' (cough 2012) Nissan LEAF
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It is a better measure than the price a basket of goods or basket of staples. Or PPP GDP per capita.
So give us the best measure of affordability.
It is painfully obvious GDP per capita is not a measure of the willingness to spend. That would be sales per capita. GDP per capita is a measure of the relative ability to buy.
Everywhere there is high GPD per capita you have high cost of living. True that in densely populated areas cost of living is higher for the same GDP per capita than in less densely populated areas leaving lower disposable income all else being equal.
Almost every auto company has better sales opportunity domestically. I just read an article about Germans rallying around VW. Autos represent nationalist pride more so than other types of goods.
Of course if there is a huge drop in price because of currency exchange rates people will buy a foreign good or switch between foreign brands.
The only measure I have is a gut feeling that $200k for a car is a biiig ask. Many people that may be able to afford that much may be unlikely to consider it as the price is just too high. The price has to break through certain psychological barriers, not just affordability barriers. It might seem wasteful spending so much on a car.
Not much of a measure :biggrin:
On the other side, the high price may work as a status marker for people that are into it.
+1
Tech products could be considered in a similar way
Geee I have zero reason national pride :biggrin: :crying:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I'd rather have an imperfect number than gut feelings. :wink:
Tech products may be that way for people a generation or two younger than me. But
I'd rather have zero tariffs and no idiot politicians wanting to increase the price of imports "to bring jobs home" and threatening domestic auto manufactures to bring plants from across the border " to bring jobs home."
Idiot above is trying to save me from low prices.
I assume the referral program will end as they ramp up X production. It is a good move to smooth out production. I assume what they are doing now is pushing out as many MS as possible to make their Q4 numbers. They had to be sure they had enough orders feed that push. I did expect more of an MS backlog, but that logic assumed they would build significant MX in Q4.
As long as they are close to 2015 guidance, and the MX is released, the market should be reasonably happy that they are on plan.
Misunderstanding. I think maoing wasn´t trying to say they guided for 50-55k Model S deliveries, his point was that if someone states that China deliveries are not needed for 50k, then adding the 4000 Model S delivered would get them to about 55K on MS alone. Not commenting on the validity, just pointing it out.
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh it certainly helps, I'll not deny that. But I think most are saying and have been saying that they could hit 55k without China... The problem isn't demand, it's production... That is what will keep us from hitting 55k or 50k or whatever. If we get 5k deliveries for China this year, great! If not then that's OK too because there is still time to get the demand up before it would become and issue, and I think that has been at least what I have been going on about for China since this 5k number was thrown out around a year ago.
jesselivenomore
Member
There is no misunderstanding. Tesla never guided for 55k MS. Maybe MS is demand constrained at 50k? That does not mean that Tesla as a whole is no longer supply constrained, since MS != Telsa.
MS+MX = Tesla.
Ahem.
After mostly flat sales during the first half of the year, Tesla experienced a 52% quarterly increased between the second quarter and the third ended in September by delivering 1,345 Model S units for a total of 3,025 so far in 2015.
Is that good news? I'm guessing so.
Edit: Or maybe not news at all? Nevermind then. :redface:
After mostly flat sales during the first half of the year, Tesla experienced a 52% quarterly increased between the second quarter and the third ended in September by delivering 1,345 Model S units for a total of 3,025 so far in 2015.
Is that good news? I'm guessing so.
Edit: Or maybe not news at all? Nevermind then. :redface:
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